<div dir="ltr">J@pan Inc Newsletter<br>The 'JIN' J@pan Inc Newsletter<br>A weekly opinion piece on social, economic and political trends<br>in Japan.<br>Issue No. 481 Wednesday September 10, 2008, Tokyo<br>------------------------------<div dir="ltr">
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More about PBXL: <a href="http://www.pbxl.jp/aboutus2" target="_blank">http://www.pbxl.jp/aboutus2</a><br>-----------------------------------------------------------<br><br>As the Liberal Democratic Party election show fires up and the<br>
five candidates position themselves with talk of increased<br>public spending, fiscal discipline or structural reform, you can't<br>help but feel it really doesn't mean a lot.<br><br>The number of candidates is the largest since 1971 and much<br>
has been made of the election, but the front-runner remains, <br>predictably, as LDP Secretary General Taro Aso with his<br>platform of an aggressive increase in spending to boost the economy.<br>Former Defense Minister Shigeru Ishiba is arguing along the<br>
same lines while former Defense Minister Yuriko Koike and LDP<br>policy chief Nobuteru Ishihara are calling for structural reforms. <br>Meanwhile, Fiscal Policy Minister Kaoru Yosano wants fiscal discipline.<br><br>The election, like basically any other election being held at the<br>
moment across the globe (read: the US presidential election) will<br>be won on economic grounds (okay, maybe there are a few ideological<br>issues involved with the US election as well). Some candidates are<br>calling for change, some for discipline. But when whichever<br>
candidate takes on the leadership, will they be able to even<br>implement policy?<br><br>Bill Emmott is one person who doesn't believe so. The former<br>editor of The Economist magazine said that the Democratic Party<br>
of Japan could and should win in next year's Lower House election.<br>
He told Kyodo News that the DPJ could form a coalition with New<br>Komeito in next year's election. The stagnation caused by the DPJ's<br>blockage of bills in the Upper House will continue regardless of<br>who is leading the LDP and unless the polls completely turn around,<br>
the public could well vote the opposition into power to get things<br>moving again.<br><br>''If you assume Japanese politics stays as it is, with deadlock in<br>parliament, then I think that the economy is likely to be in<br>
stagnation, or very slow growth, for quite a long time because I<br>think that the prospect for domestic demand is low, because the<br>government cannot borrow any more," Emmott told Kyodo.<br>''Consumers will not get higher wages. There will be no other<br>
source. The economy will be dependent on export growth as it has<br>been for the last few years. That will be a big problem for Japan. <br>It needs to be led by domestic demand.''<br>Emmott, who wrote on Japan for the Economist, said that former<br>
Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda's stimulus package should have<br>been aimed at creating demand at home rather than assisting<br>small- to medium-sized firms.<br>"I want a new government to focus on the domestic economy and<br>
market-oriented reforms including deregulation, but also deal<br>with poverty and inequality by using the minimum wage system," <br>Emmott said.<br>''I think that a new government should raise the minimum wage<br>
and increase it in subsequent years because this will raise the<br>
incomes of part-time and temporary workers. It will reduce<br>inequality and help to deal with a shortage of consumer demand."<br><br>The former editor said he thought that the DPJ should gain<br>power in order for the reforms to be put into place. <br>
There is no denying that the LDP is desperately unpopular but<br>can anyone imagine DPJ leader Ichiro Ozawa as PM?<br>Known for his opportunist tendencies, dirty tactics and lack of<br>clear ideological standpoints, Ozawa may still prove to be a<br>
stumbling block to the DPJ's rise to power.<br>Last year the Economist labeled him an "increasingly ineffectual<br>bully." Is this the leader that the public would choose over Aso or any <br>of the other candidates? <br>
We may find out a lot sooner than originally expected. In the<br>
meantime, the Japanese economy needs the LDP to choose a leader<br>who can push effective policy through parliament. But then<br>again, that's easier said than done.<br><br>Michael Condon<br>Editor-in-Chief<br>-----------------------------------------------------------<br>
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-----------------------------------------------------------<br>-----------------------------------------------------------<br>STAFF<br>Written by: Michael Condon, Editor-in-Chief, Japan Inc Magazine<br>READ PREVIOUS NEWSLETTERS<br>
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