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BE THERE WHEN THE MUSICAL YEAR KICKS OFF! </p>
<p>Speaking at MIDEM / MidemNet 2009 </p>
<p>* David Eun, VP Content Partnerships, Google Inc<br>
* Jay Marciano, President, Madison Square Garden Entertainment<br>
* J.Y. Park, Founder and President, JYP Entertainment<br>
* Jim Balsillie, co-CEO, RIM/Blackberry<br>
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* Dr. Tero Ojanpera, EVP, Entertainment and Communities, Nokia</p>
<p>MidemNet: 17 - 18 January 2009 View MidemNet Programme<br>
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-----------------------------------------------------------<br><br>J@pan Inc Newsletter<br>
The '<span class="nfakPe">JIN</span>' J@pan Inc Newsletter<br>
A weekly opinion piece on social, economic and political trends<br>
in Japan.<br>
Issue No. 494 Wednesday December 17, 2008, Tokyo<br>
<br>I haven't seen a more illustrative graph than the Financial Times' one<br>
for the latest Tankan survey. When you look at it, it appears<br>
reminiscent of a plane that has spluttered out of fuel after climbing<br>
to a decent altitude, and then headed straight into a nosedive. The<br>
graph for the previous quarter's survey looked pretty dismal but if<br>
you add another 20 degrees to the angle of the descent, that's how it<br>
looked.<br>
<br>
The survey, released on Monday by the Bank of Japan, placed the<br>
confidence of the nation's large manufacturers at minus 24. The drop<br>
from the previous quarter was 21 points which makes it the sharpest<br>
decline in more than three decades. And let's put that in context –<br>
that was caused by the 1973-74 oil shock at that time Tankan's<br>
headline index dropped 26 points. During the same quarter a year ago<br>
manufacturers' confidence was rated above 20 points. This is a<br>
seven-year low and I'm guessing that 7 years ago, in the same quarter,<br>
September 11 happened, right?<br>
<br>
You don't have to be a genius to figure out what was behind the drop,<br>
global financial turmoil, the recession which everyone had seen coming<br>
a mile away and the drying up of credit all contributed. The strong<br>
yen and the devastation in foreign markets couldn't have helped<br>
either.<br>
<br>
Following the BOJ's announcement, the government immediately began<br>
stepping up pressure on the central bank to do something to bolster<br>
economic growth. Finance Minister Shoichi Nakagawa publicly called on<br>
the BOJ to do… well something.<br>
<br>
"I hope the BOJ considers economic conditions and the liquidity<br>
problems and reaches a conclusion" on what to do, said Nakagawa on<br>
Tuesday in Tokyo.<br>
<br>
Mary Iwashita, chief market economist at Daiwa Securities SMBC told<br>
Bloomberg that Prime Minister Aso was making a kind of last ditch<br>
attempt to prove his worth.<br>
<br>
"Aso wants to show his leadership by implementing monetary and fiscal<br>
policy at the same time…He's turning to the central bank as a last<br>
resort, as fiscal constraints and his weakening political position<br>
limit his options," she said.<br>
<br>
Last week Aso announced the details of his second economic stimulus<br>
package saying that he would spend more to help the unemployed as more<br>
workers are laid off – particularly at some of the large<br>
manufacturers. Toyota has announced it will lay off a lot of temporary<br>
workers while Sony said it would have to sack something 8000<br>
full-timers and 8000 others. This was worldwide mind you, but it's<br>
indicative of what some of the large exporters are doing at the<br>
moment. The government also said it would buy commercial paper as part<br>
of the package to help funding for businesses.<br>
<br>
Aso pledged 4,000 billion yen ($44bn) in spending and tax cuts and<br>
Y3,000 billion yen in promised credit for companies. He also raised<br>
the limit for public fund injections for financial institutions to<br>
12,000 billion.<br>
<br>
The Nikkei also reported on Tuesday that the budget for next year<br>
would be a record 89 trillion yen ($982 billion) so I'm guessing that<br>
there will be more stimulus packages to come.<br>
<br>
Of particular note within the Tankan survey was the automotive sector<br>
which dropped 46 points from the previous quarter. While Japan's Big<br>
Three are in a hell of a better position than their American<br>
counterparts, they are hurting. This was definitely one of the hardest<br>
hit sectors of all the manufacturers. The lucrative North American<br>
market that had enabled particularly Toyota to be so profitable in<br>
recent years has dried up as American families go into damage control.<br>
<br>
But it could have been worse, according to Julian Jessop, of Capital<br>
Economics. He was quoted in the Financial Times as saying that the<br>
Tankan results were actually better than expected, but he said that<br>
large manufacturers expected sentiment to decline even further in the<br>
next quarter…<br><br>Michael Condon<br>Editor-in-chief<br>
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