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J@pan Inc Newsletter<br>
The '<span><span class="il">JIN</span></span>' J@pan Inc Newsletter<br>
A weekly opinion piece on social, economic and political trends<br>
in Japan.<br>
Issue No. 505 Friday April 03, 2009, Tokyo<br><br>Three months ago I wrote about how the Bank of Japan’s Tankan survey<br>
had dropped by what was the steepest decline in more than three<br>
decades. At that time, the index dropped 21 points, placing the<br>
nation’s large manufacturers at minus-24 on the index. Looking back<br>
along the survey’s history, there hadn’t been a sharper drop until the<br>
1973-74 oil shock. That caused the index to drop 26 points.<br>
<br>
This week the survey showed that the confidence of large manufacturers<br>
was rated at minus-58. That’s a drop of 34 points. It was the steepest<br>
drop and the lowest point ever seen in the Tankan survey, which the<br>
BOJ began compiling it in 1974.<br>
<br>
By now, everyone is fairly well aware of what’s going on: Overseas<br>
markets have collapsed; Japan, of course export-dependent, is in deep<br>
recession; and the high yen is cutting into profit margins. It’s a<br>
simple equation. What is a little more complicated however, is the<br>
solution. Prime Minister Taro Aso, defended his government’s decision<br>
to spend until they can’t spend no more (or something to that effect).<br>
German chancellor Angela Merkel criticized the LDP’s plan saying that<br>
“spending more public money as part of a co-ordinated stimulus risked<br>
creating an unsustainable recovery.” Aso, however, reminded the<br>
chancellor that Japan had seen it all before.<br>
<br>
This is what he had to say, <a href="http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/137b240e-1e23-11de-830b-00144feabdc0.html">according to the Financial Times</a>:<br>
<br>
“Because of the experience of the past 15 years, we know what is<br>
necessary, whilst countries like the US and European countries may be<br>
facing this sort of situation for the first time,” he said. “I think<br>
there are countries that understand the importance of fiscal<br>
mobilization and there are some other countries that do not – which is<br>
why, I believe, Germany has come up with their views.”<br>
<br>
The latest stimulus package, announced on Tuesday, was still somewhat<br>
vague. The PM said it was still too early to go into detail but some<br>
within the LDP have suggested that it may be as much as 20,000 billion<br>
yen. This is according to the FT’s report. I’m not even sure what that<br>
is - 20 trillion yen? – somewhere close to $200 billion, anyway. The<br>
LDP has already started spending measures worth $120 billion. It is<br>
the LDP’s typical answer to any economic malaise but the scale of what<br>
they are proposing is mind blowing.<br>
<br>
Some Japanese media have reported the package aims to create 60<br>
trillion yen ($612 billion) worth of demand and two million jobs over<br>
three years.<br>
<br>
Increased domestic demand will go some way to improve manufacturers<br>
sentiment but no doubt the eyes of giants such as Toyota and Nissan<br>
will be focussed on what Obama’s stimulus package will be doing in the<br>
US.<br>
<br>
The rate of the contraction of Japan’s GDP was 12.1 percent in<br>
annualized terms in the last quarter of 2008. The stats for GDP in the<br>
first quarter of 2009 haven’t been released yet but according to <a href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123854464642675997.html">this </a><br><a href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123854464642675997.html">Wall Street Journal report</a>, it is expected to contract by<br>
double-digits again.<br>
<br>
But it’s not all bad. The big manufacturers on the Tankan index<br>
indicated that their sentiment would improve in June to minus-51.<br>
Meanwhile, large non-manufacturers expect their sentiment index to<br>
improve slightly to minus-30 in June from minus-30 in March.<br>
<br>
Things won’t exactly be rosy, but hopefully we’ll see some improvement.<br>
<font color="#888888"><br><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">
Michael Condon</span><br style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">
Editor-in-chief</span><br style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">
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Entrepreneur Association of Tokyo Seminar-Tuesday, April 7th</p>
<p>Speaker: Martin van der Linden-Founder and Principal<br>
of van der Architects<br>
Seminar Title: 'Design, Business and Creativity'</p>
<p>Martin established van der Architects in 2000 and focuses<br>
on corporate interior design using a unique methodology he<br>
created called WorkVitamins. This methodology helps his clients<br>
leverage the work environment to motivate the staff and improve<br>
productivity. His clients include Fortune 500 companies such as<br>
Ernst & Young, ING Group, Societe Generale and WPP Group.<br>
Join us on April 7th to hear Martin's insights into the<br>
relationship between design, creativity, and business.</p>
<p>Please sign up early while seats are available.</p>
<p>Date/Time: Tuesday, April 7th - Doors open at 6:30,<br>
Seminar starts at 7:00<br>
Location: The Foreign Correspondents' Club of Japan<br>
Language: English<br>
Website: <a href="http://www.ea-tokyo.com/" title="http://www.ea-tokyo.com" target="_blank">http://www.ea-tokyo.com</a></p>
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</p>