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J@pan Inc Newsletter<br>
The 'JIN' J@pan Inc Newsletter<br>
A weekly opinion piece on social, economic and political trends in Japan.<br>
Issue No. 509 Friday May 10, 2009, Tokyo<br>
<br>
It must be frustrating for airline industry executives – looking at<br>
the price of crude oil drop so significantly only to see consumers too<br>
scared to drive to the shops, let alone to their nearest international<br>
airport. No-one is buying an extra pint of milk so they sure aren’t<br>
about to pack up the kids and head off on the odd European holiday.<br>
<br>
This week, global airline trade association IATA released its<br>
forecast, predicting that airlines will lose $9 billion this year.<br>
This is double the amount predicted in March due to much bigger losses<br>
than expected occurring during the first three months of the year.<br>
<br>
It’s going to be the second straight year of losses for a lot of<br>
airlines, including world leaders such as British Airways and Air<br>
France-KLM.<br>
<br>
While it is true there are fewer people willing to head abroad<br>
for their holidays, it is the drop in the number of business travelers<br>
that is really hurting the airlines.<br>
<br>
According to a Financial Times report, the biggest loses were in the<br>
Asia-Pacific region. $3.3 billion. The reason for this, the FT said,<br>
was due to airlines being hit by both a huge decline in the demand for<br>
travel from business passengers as well as an “unprecedented drop in<br>
air cargo volumes.” While warehouse inventories remain full, the<br>
losses will continue across Asia. And while the salespeople, who are<br>
supposed to be selling the inventories, are stuck back at HQ, their<br>
bosses aren’t buying tickets -- for the salespeople or for themselves<br>
for that matter. Business travel is important for the airlines as this<br>
is where these companies make the bulk of their profits.<br>
<br>
In its report, IATA forecast that air cargo would decline on average<br>
by 17 percent while passenger numbers would decline by 8 percent. And<br>
there would be little relief in 2010, the association, predicted.<br>
Also expected is a fall in revenues of 15 percent ($80 billion) to<br>
$448 billion. While a drop in fuel costs of about $59 billion has been<br>
forecast for 2009, this is still no match for the massive drop in<br>
revenue.<br>
<br>
We’ve seen cut-price airfares and special business class deals<br>
advertised in all kinds of media – not in a very long time have we<br>
seen a better time to be booking flights. And yet many don’t have the<br>
stomach for flight - any excess cash lying around is being pumped into<br>
debt by households the world over.<br>
<br>
Of course there have been cuts in capacity, but still, excessive<br>
capacity remains. Capacity was growing in Asia, when the downturn hit,<br>
on the back of the healthy demand at the time. Capacity is now being<br>
scaled back -- but not fast enough. Ticket prices will continue to be<br>
cut – which is good news for passengers (well those still flying). But<br>
for the airlines themselves, 2009 is going to be a turbulent year.<br>
<br>
Michael Condon<br>
Editor-in-chief<br>
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</div><br><br clear="all"><br>-- <br>Editor-in-chief<br>Media Division<br>J@pan Inc. Communications, K.K.<br><br>Business ・瘢雹 People ・瘢雹 Technology<br><br>Japan Inc. Communications, K.K.<br>10F Minami-Aoyama First Building,<br>
7-8-1 Minami Aoyama,<br>Minato-ku, Tokyo 107-0062<br>Tel: 03-4550-2929 (general)<br>Tel: 03-4550-2855 (direct)<br>Fax: 03-4550-2859<br>Email: <a href="mailto:michael@japaninc.com">michael@japaninc.com</a><br><br>English <a href="http://www.japaninc.com">www.japaninc.com</a><br>
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