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J@pan Inc Newsletter<br>
The 'JIN' J@pan Inc Newsletter<br>
A weekly opinion piece on social, economic and political trends in Japan.<br>
Issue No. 514 Thursday November 26, 2009, Tokyo<br>
<br>
Earlier this year, when News Corporation chief Rupert Murdoch<br>
whispered about removing his vast array of media properties from<br>
Google’s search index, many seasoned veterans of the technology/media<br>
space seemed skeptical. The wide skepticism is by and large an after<br>
effect of the egalitarian "Web 2.0" Internet ideal that has already<br>
seeped into the mainstream of media culture. For the last few years,<br>
the Web 2.0 meme promulgated the idea of an Internet populated by<br>
largely free content, somehow supporting a new environment in which<br>
independent bloggers, writing for free from the comfort of their<br>
homes, were elevated to an equal footing with large news organizations<br>
like CNN, The New York Times and Murdoch’s own Wall Street Journal,<br>
just to name a few.<br>
<br>
Now, thanks to a report this week in the Financial Times, it looks<br>
like Murdoch’s contrarian musings may, in fact, hold the key to saving<br>
the dying newspaper business. The report describes a deal in which<br>
Microsoft, the creator of the new Bing search engine, would pay News<br>
Corporation for the right to index the company’s media titles, which<br>
include heavy hitters like The Wall Street Journal, The Daily<br>
Telegraph, The Australian, The Sun, and The New York Post. Because<br>
Murdoch has already publicly expressed a desire to remove his content<br>
from the Google search index, this kind of deal could set up the<br>
template for news organizations around the world to once again assign<br>
value to their content rather than allowing it to be consumed for<br>
free, tenuously supported by dwindling advertising revenue.<br>
<br>
According to comScore, as of October Bing's U.S. search increased to<br>
9.9 percent, versus Google at 65.4 percent and Yahoo at 18 percent.<br>
The significant factor here is that Bing now provides the search<br>
technology for Yahoo, thus giving Microsoft a two-pronged attack<br>
against Google that represents nearly 30 percent of the search market<br>
in the U.S. The 10-year deal between Bing and Yahoo is still subject<br>
to a U.S. anti-trust review in early 2010, but the fact remains that<br>
Microsoft is in a perfect position to provide leadership to the rest<br>
of the search and media community by essentially offering to pay for<br>
content that is now largely being consumed for free via Google.<br>
<br>
Amazingly, the skeptics are still grumbling that Murdoch's plan will<br>
do little to save media, and may even diminish the fortunes of media<br>
mainstays like the Wall Street Journal and The New York Post. The fear<br>
is that Microsoft and News Corporation may marginalize themselves by<br>
setting up this new pay-for-indexing dynamic. But these naysayers are<br>
overlooking the fact that ever since the rise to commercial prominence<br>
of upstart, independent blogs, old media has been desperately looking<br>
for a revenue savior and will likely glom onto the coattails of anyone<br>
who can effectively come up with a solution that will save the<br>
shrinking profits of the newspaper industry.<br>
<br>
According to FT, Matt Brittin, Google's UK director, gamely responded<br>
to the possible Murdoch/Microsoft move by saying, "Economically<br>
[newspaper content is not] a big part of how we generate revenue."<br>
That may be true in terms of hard numbers (Google's cash cow is<br>
advertising), but when it comes to audience engagement, non-content<br>
(read: academic, research, etc.) oriented searches probably represent<br>
only a portion of consumer Google use, while content searches that are<br>
somehow connected to newspaper and magazine websites are likely far<br>
more important than Google would have the media business believe. In<br>
short, Google needs content creators, because without content to<br>
index, the value of Google decreases significantly.<br>
<br>
How this will all play out in the Japanese Internet economy is a<br>
mystery, but somewhat predictable. Japan's search leader, Yahoo Japan,<br>
is not wholly owned by the U.S. version of Yahoo, but any move that<br>
promises to monetize the newspaper business on the Internet is sure to<br>
be given serious consideration by the Yahoo Japan stake holders<br>
<br>
As for the future of Bing, the search engine has already defied the<br>
odds and won its fair share of fans from the tech community. If the<br>
deal with News Corporation comes to fruition, we may see a mass<br>
movement of media properties stepping up to the table in the hopes of<br>
securing a similar deal with Microsoft. In turn, the pressure will<br>
then move to other search engines with fewer resources to pay content<br>
creators for indexing.<br>
<br>
Another byproduct of this Murdoch move is the possible marginalization<br>
of smaller, independent content creators who will likely have a harder<br>
time convincing the likes of Microsoft to pay them to index their<br>
websites. Imagine if an independent website like Techcrunch, started<br>
as a one-man operation just a few years ago and now the top technology<br>
news website, had been faced with the prospect of having to convince a<br>
company like Microsoft to pay to index its content in a search engine<br>
before any significant traffic or influence had accrued. Given the<br>
huge role search engine discovery plays in startup websites gaining an<br>
audience, Techcrunch and many other startups would have been hobbled<br>
from the beginning. In the new reality proffered by Microsoft and<br>
Murdoch, we may see the rise of two Internet communities: the<br>
commercial Net and the independent Net. Ultimately, what may save the<br>
newspaper business may serve to destroy the independent Internet media<br>
business.<br>
<br>
Despite this dark, bifurcated Internet scenario, among the old media<br>
set, Murdoch's strategy gains currency with each passing day. Just<br>
months ago dismissed as the rantings of an out-of-touch, 78 year-old<br>
media baron, the notion of leaving the Google index is now something<br>
worth seriously considering if you're a major news organization. If<br>
the deal goes through, and other major media organizations follow<br>
Murdoch's lead, the only question remaining will be how long Google<br>
can hold out in hopes of continuing what has been a free ride on the<br>
back of major news content without paying something back into the<br>
Internet economy, like Microsoft.<br>
<br>
Adario Strange<br>
Editor-in-Chief<br>
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