Terrie's Take 692 -- 9 Predictions for 2013, ebiz news in Japan

[Terrie's Take]

* * * * * * * * * T E R R I E 'S T A K E * * * * * * *
A weekly roundup of news & information from Terrie Lloyd. (
http://www.terrie.com)

General Edition Sunday, Jan 06, 2013, Issue No. 692

+++ INDEX

- What's New -- 9 Predictions for 2013
- News -- Property prices now too low
- Upcoming Events
- Corrections/Feedback
- Travel Picks -- Beautiful photos in Kanagawa and Chiba
- News Credits

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+++ WHAT'S NEW

Welcome back to Terrie's Take for 2013. As is our custom, we are going to
kick off the year by making some predictions about where we think Japan,
her people, and companies are headed this year. If you have some even
better ones, then please let us know about them.

Of the 6 predictions we made in 2012, the one about an Israel-Iran conflict
over Iran's nuclear facilities was well off the mark. We still think this
war could happen, and if/when it does, it will trigger a rapid rise in oil
prices and consequently make electric vehicles look very attractive again
-- good for Japanese companies. But until then, gas and hybrid is all the
go.

1. Yen

After 3 damaging years of a highly-valued currency, the December election
of PM Shinzo Abe precipitated a dramatic fall in the value of the Japanese
yen. The reason is simply that Abe has promised both inflationary
government policies and to coerce the Bank of Japan into inflating the
economy through Quantitative Easing. In other words, Japan is going to play
a game of beggar-thy-neighbor by debasing its currency vis-a-vis the US
dollar and the Euro.

On the surface, this is fair enough, since Korea and China have really
killed Japanese companies in the global marketplace with their relatively
undervalued currencies. However, the problem for Abe is three-fold: 1) how
does he make sure that any public monies spent are spent on productive
assets rather than political ones, 2) what will the government do if the
planned inflation causes the interest payments on its own debts to spiral
out of control? Debt payments already account for 50% of the annual tax
take, and a 2% interest rate would wipe out any tax income. Then, 3), what
if the Eurozone has another Greek-style meltdown? Then the yen will once
again become a safe haven currency. We do indeed think the Eurozone
problems are not over -- after all, how can a country have 50% unemployment
and remain politically stable? Therefore, we are  betting that the yen
won't stay down for very long. Our guess is 6 months at JPY90-JPY95 to the
US dollar then by the end of the year back to JPY80-JPY83.

2. Abe and Upper House

Although PM Abe came across as being hard right wing in his election
speeches, we think that some of this was acted out for the aged population
who are the main body of citizens actually interested in getting out and
voting. No doubt LDP planners thought he needed to cut a strong contrast to
the highly unpopular Noda of the DPJ, and positioned Abe as a strong leader
able to get things done both economically and with China. But whatever the
planners fantasized, the reality probably is that voters simply wanted some
normality in government again after the chaos of the DPJ-Ozawa split -- so
they were voting against the DPJ and the the new ultra-rightist parties,
rather than voting for Abe.

While a populist message was acceptable for the Lower House elections,
experts are saying that particularly for the next 6 months Abe will need to
downplay his true feelings about the military, foreigners, and China, so as
to appear more centrist and to get the economy going again. For now Japan
still needs China. Furthermore, Japan's voters are intelligent enough that
while they wanted the DPJ out, they nonetheless don't necessarily trust Abe
and his cohort, and so will want a counterbalance in the Upper House. We'll
be surprised if the LDP enjoys the same overwhelming majority in the summer
elections as they have just had last December.

[Continued below...]

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[...Article continues]

3. Housing

2013 has all the makings of a short-term growth year, due to the fact that
the consumption tax rising in 2014 will stimulate capital purchases
beforehand, and also because the new government has managed to get the
value of the yen down -- thus bringing some relief to exporters and their
employees. We don't think the rosy outlook will last, though, and neither
will the temporary rise in fortunes trickle down to the majority of
consumers. But for those with regular jobs and those who are looking to
invest in a house, rental property, or a car, 2013 is the year to do it.

As a result, research firm Real Estate Economic Institute is predicting
that Tokyo's supply of apartments will bounce back by over 10% this year,
to around 50,000 units. This is still a far cry from the greater Tokyo
supply peak of 95,635 units in 2000, but not so terribly worse than the
2007 Pre-Lehman supply of 60,000 units. Real estate developers Nomura,
Sumitomo, Mitsui, Mitsubishi, and Daikyo all expect to supply 4,000-7,000
units each in 2013, about 5%-10% higher than last year.

We'd also note that if you're looking to invest in some holiday land, now
would also be a good time to do it, as owners of under-utilized properties
will suddenly start to realize from media reports that it's now or never to
move their unproductive assets. Banks will also be more receptive to loan
requests, especially in contrast to the depressive mood likely to hang over
Japan after April 2014.

4. Kamei moratorium and bankruptcies

In December last year we noted in Terrie's Take that the legislation
introduced in 2009 by then financial services minister Shizuka Kamei was
due to expire in March this year. So far, we've not heard anything from the
LDP as to whether they plan to extend the moratorium, but given their
predilection for spending other people's money (i.e., passing debts to
future generations), there doesn't seem to be any reason for them to not
extend. If for some strange reason this don't extend, though, then you can
expect hundreds of thousands of companies to quickly get into financial
difficulty, and bankruptcies will quickly surge. Indeed, banks are already
canceling business relationships with struggling firms and passing them on
to the government's various guarantee corporations. So the banks at least
seem to think there will be no renewal.

5. State asset spending

Based on past experience of how the LDP does things, we don't hold high
hopes for Abe's latest announcement of a JPY10trn stimulus package.
Probably it will be business as usual -- passing public cash to special
interest groups who have been kept away from the feeding troughs for the
last 3 years. However, it was good to see some moderation at work. The
initial announcement that the money would be used for public works was
quickly amended to say that it would be spent over 6 years and a good chunk
of it would be on much needed maintenance and earthquake proofing. However
it's presented, though, this package is just the tip of the
government-rescue iceberg. If you consider direct support measures between
the BOJ and government (quantitative easing), government-controlled banks
and funds buying listed stocks in lieu of the public, scads of u-turn aid
monies to places like India and Burma, the above-mentioned loans
moratorium, and a number of other indirect financing measures, then the
amount of debt being taken on is much, much more than is obvious in the
newspapers.

A good example of how opaque government funding is being implemented can be
found in a new initiative just announced. A new public/private fund is
apparently going to be infused with JPY100bn, rising to JPY1trn in the next
5 years, and will go around buying assets from major companies that are
having financial problems, leasing the assets back to these companies at
very favorable terms. The rumors are that this form of public largesse will
start with some Sony factories, that the company will otherwise have to
sell. We can think of plenty of other firms in the electronics industry who
will be crowding around wanting their handouts as well.

Again, Japan seems to be copying concepts from the USA in deciding that
some companies are just too big to fail. Lucky those who are selected -- we
wonder how that will actually be done. However, unlike the USA, Japan is
not acting under the threat of an immediate emergency, but rather is using
the financing as a means of avoiding responsibility -- supporting companies
and industries that should probably be radically restructured, to make
finance available for new businesses that will survive in this new era.

6. Overseas M&A

We believe that even at JPY90 to the US dollar, acquisition of foreign
firms by Japanese ones will continue apace for 2013, although there will be
a tailing off by the end of the year due to instability in Europe again.
The big difference this year, though, is that the first wave of deals done
3 years ago will start to come back to haunt their Japanese acquirers. We
say this because most Japanese corporations are not well prepared to handle
international management teams or the dynamics of global economic
movements, so through inertia they will over time cause the talented
leadership of their acquisitions to give up in frustration and leave.

Also, since Japanese companies tend to buy at the top of the market, even
though they are picking up assets that are high performers, such companies
are generally tuned like thoroughbreds, meaning that they can have the
stuffing/profit knocked out of them very quickly when things go wrong. Just
look at Nomura's costly and nightmarish experience with the various Lehman
assets that they picked up and are now having to lop off. Or Daichi Sankyo
with their Ranbaxy debacle in 2008.

7. Battery breakthrough

Although we keep this item on our list from previous years, we do feel that
Japanese materials scientists are getting closer to developing Electric
Vehicle (EV) batteries that can offer real-world range and power. The
consumer needs at least a battery that will get them 300km-400km, and
doesn't want to have to pay double the cost of a normal gas-powered engine.
There were enough exciting power density improvements in 2012, that we're
convinced a commercially viable EV battery is just around the corner.

Among the front runners are NEC and Panasonic, who have announced battery
technologies that will increase power output by 30%. NEC's technology is
based on manganese lithium-ion, which will reduce battery costs
significantly while increasing output by 30%, while Panasonic's technology,
actually developed at Kyoto University, involves metallic lithium for the
negative electrode and a newly developed high-performance polymer for the
positive one -- also offering a 30% boost in power for a much lighter
product.

8. TPP

According to the Nikkei newspaper, Japan has to decide by February whether
it wants to join the TPP trade negotiations or not. The reason is because
the 11 players in the proposed trading bloc, including the USA, plan to
have reached a basic agreement by October on what TPP will cover and just
how much protection of each country's favored industries will be allowed.
The original sentiment of the TPP founders was that there would be no
excluded sectors, but with the involvement of the USA, there are bound to
be some exclusions. So this offers some hope for the Japanese in regards to
farming, law, medicine, and education. However, at the same time, the
timing is not good for the LDP, since any sign of them showing interest in
TPP will cause a supporter backlash here at home. Therefore, we think that
Japan will NOT join the TPP talks, or if they do, they will do so as an
observer.

9. Fukushima ecological problems

Is the Daiichi power plant in Fukushima safe yet? Not by a long shot. Not
only are there 1,500 spent fuel rods still to be transferred to
transportation/storage housings and then to safer locations -- something
that won't be started until November and an operation which could be easily
interrupted (or worse) by a major aftershock -- but also there appears to
be ongoing contamination of the groundwater around the plant. It is now
fairly clear that there was no melt through of the reactor vessels, and so
we don't have a China Syndrome going on, however, cracks in the cooling
system or perhaps in the containment vessels themselves are still a
possibility, given data released last year by the Woods Hole Oceanographic
Institute based in Massachusetts, USA. The Institute's research vessel
sampled the ocean currents leading away from Fukushima and found that
Cesium levels have flattened out, when instead they should be decreasing,
indicating that the cesium is still being released from one or more
sources. There are various theories as to what is happening, including land
run-off into the rivers, excretion of cesium by organisms on the sea bed,
and, what we think is the most likely cause -- a leak somewhere in the
plant.

Either way, we don't plan to be eating sea food caught North of Izu and
south of Hokkaido for a while to come yet.

****************

Next, do you fancy yourself as a writer? Then you'll be happy to see the
competition being run by Japan Society/Stanford University-related Japan -
U.S. Innovation Award Program, which is offering a handsome US$3,000 cash
prize for the best story about intrepreneurship in Japanese companies, or
in foreign firms located here. More details in the Events section below.

Lastly, a comment about the new look of the newsletter. We are
experimenting with eliminating the 60-character carriage returns we have
traditionally used in our e-mails. Previously we formatted so that mobile
phone users could always see emails the way we intended, but as many
readers cut-and-paste snippets to friends, they lose formatting in the
process, so we have decided to change things on our end. What about HTML?
Well, not yet, other than for the archives. We invite feedback from anyone
who finds this change problematic.


...The information janitors/

***------------------------****-------------------------***

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-----------------------------------------------------------

+++ NEWS

- Property prices now too low
- Another scandal in Fukushima
- Japanese internet usage up 50% since 2006
- Myanmar becomes major recipient of new aid
- Major mobile data speed improvements



=> Property prices now too low

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) Deputy Governor Kiyohiko Nishimura has delivered a
presentation in the USA stating that he thinks property prices in Japan
have been depressed beyond the level that fundamentals would indicate. He
alluded to the fact that after the bubble, regulatory factors had a big
part to play in depressing prices, creating a spiral of pessimism that kept
them depressed. He also said that he thinks other developed nations are
entering a similar phase since the Lehman Shock in 2008. ***Ed: Although we
feel that real estate in cities is probably fairly priced and certainly not
cheap by international standards, it is the land in the countryside that is
absurdly low priced. Being able to buy a wooden house and 300 sq. m. of
land for JPY3m is surely beyond logic, given Japan's stable and law-abiding
society, infrastructure, and guaranteed rights to ownership.** (Source: TT
commentary from bloomberg.com, Jan 5, 2013)

http://bloom.bg/UrE7ES

=> Another scandal in Fukushima

TEPCO obviously still has a bunch of thugs running the Fukushima clean-up,
after it has been revealed by the Asahi newspaper that contractors are
illegally moving radioactive soil and tree trimmings into surrounding
rivers and unauthorized land areas. The newspaper took photos of several
instances of contractors dumping tainted trash into a local stream. In
other reports, contractors dumped contaminated soil in the town of Naraha.
Anyone caught illegally disposing contaminated trash can be punished with a
JPY10m fine or 5 years in prison but so far no charges have been laid.
(Source: TT commentary from japantimes.co.jp, Jan 5, 2013)

http://www.japantimes.co.jp/text/nn20130105a1.html

=> Japanese internet usage up 50% since 2006

A Communication Ministry report has stated that Japanese are spending up to
50% more time on the Internet than they were in 2006. The 200,000-person
survey found that the average person spends 41 minutes on the Internet.
Those aged 25-34 spent about 77 minutes a day on the web, compared with 40
minutes in 2006. ***Ed: Some other interesting stats in this article, like
the one where less than 30% of Dads eat dinner with their kids on
weekdays...** (Source: TT commentary from wsj.com, Dec 25, 2012)

http://on.wsj.com/Xx7Fae

=> Myanmar becomes major recipient of new aid

Coming on top of a write-off of JPY500bn of old loans due from Myanmar to
Japan, the SE Asian country is being rewarded for reopening itself
politically to Japan by being made a new JPY50bn low-interest loan in
March. New Deputy PM Taro Aso visited Myanmar on Jan 3 and made the
announcement during the visit. ***Ed: Given that these loans are generally
for infrastructure and need to be spent with Japanese contractors, this
money will essentially make its way over the next 12 months to Hitachi,
Mitsubishi, and other major Japanese firms. Japan Inc. at work.** (Source:
TT commentary from e.nikkei.com, Jan 3, 2013)

http://e.nikkei.com/e/ac/tnks/Nni20130103D03JF166.htm

=> Major mobile data speed improvements

NTT DoCoMo is trying to fight back in the iphone/mobile price war started
by Softbank by significantly increasing its service performance, and most
notably, the speed of data transfers. The company says it will quintuple
the speed of its Long Term Evolution (LTE) network to 187.5Mpbs in major
cities around the nation as early as next year (2014). Not far behind, KDDI
is quadrupling the speed of its connections over the same period. (Source:
TT commentary from e.nikkei.com, Dec 31, 2012)

http://e.nikkei.com/e/ac/tnks/Nni20121230D3012F03.htm


NOTE: Broken links
Some online news sources remove their articles after just a few days of
posting them, thus breaking our links -- we apologize for the inconvenience.

***------------------------****-------------------------***

------------- Japanese Travel Writers wanted -------------

Do you know someone who can write native-level Japanese and who is
interested in travel? The JapanTourist.jp division of Metropolis (Japan
Partnership KK) has two brand name clients in the tourism sector who need
to have a substantial number of travel articles written about Japan. These
are paid positions.

While professional writers are welcome, the JapanTourist.jp project is a
writer community set up for talented amateurs to have a forum to test their
skills. Therefore, we welcome housewives, retired people, and Japanese
living overseas who would like to re-connect with their home country.

All work can be done from your own home, with stories and editing
discussions taking place by email and through the JapanTourist.jp backend
dashboard and associated tools.

Interested writers may contact JapanTourist at:

http://japantourist.jp/register/, or at: support at japantourist.jp
-----------------------------------------------------------

+++ CANDIDATE ROUND UP/VACANCIES

=> BiOS, a Division of the LINC Media group, is actively marketing the
following positions for customers setting up or expanding in Japan, as well
as other employers of bilinguals.

** HIGHLIGHTED POSITION

BiOS is urgently looking for a Data Center Engineer to join our client, an
international IT services provider in Tokyo. The successful candidate will
be responsible for providing 24/7 data center support to a global
investment bank, with duties including break-fix of Sun and HP products,
installing servers and building/maintaining workstations, managing
inventory and databases after installation, and tape management. In
addition, you would also be responsible for escorting and monitoring onsite
vendor activity, creating reports, monitoring servers, storage, and
networks, and escalating problems.

Due to the technical nature and demanding work environment, this position
is suitable for someone with at least one your of IT hardware support
experience (i.e., network/server monitoring, IT equipment asset management,
etc.). In addition, since this role requires direct coordination with both
regional and global IT teams, Business-level English and
Conversational-level Japanese language abilities will be required.

Remuneration is JPY3.5M - JPY4M depending on your experience and skill
level.

** POSITIONS VACANT

- Network Engineer, global data center services provider, JPY5M - JPY8M
- Software Asset Management Officer, global bank, JPY4.5M - JPY5.5M
- MAC Coordinator, global IT hardware and services provider, JPY3.5M - JPY5M
- Administrative Assistant, IT services provider, JPY 2M - 3.5M
- Sharepoint Specialist, global electronics company in Tokyo, JPY7M - JPY9M

** BiOS Job Mail

Every 2 weeks BiOS sends out a regular communication to its job seeking
candidates, called BiOS Job Mail. Every edition carries a list of BiOS's
current and most up-to-date vacancies, with each entry featuring a short
job description and a direct link to the main entry on the BiOS home page.
Regardless of whether you are unemployed and searching, thinking about a
career change, or just curious to know if there is something out there that
might suit you better, the BiOS Job Mail newsletter is an easy and
convenient way for you to stay informed. If you would like to register for
the BiOS Job Mail, or to find out more, please email
jason.kisling at biosjp.com.

Interested individuals may e-mail resumes to: jason.kisling at biosjp.com and
check out the BiOS web page for other jobs:
http://www.biosjp.com/positions.php
-----------------------------------------------------------

***------------------------****-------------------------***

+++ UPCOMING EVENTS/ANNOUNCEMENTS

---------------- Start a Company in Japan -----------------

Entrepreneur's Handbook Seminar 9th of February, 2013

If you have been considering setting up your own company, find out what it
takes to make it successful. Terrie Lloyd, founder of over 17 start-up
companies in Japan, will be giving an English-language seminar and Q&A on
starting up a company in Japan.

This is an ideal opportunity to find out what is involved, and to ask
specific questions that are not normally answered in business books. All
materials are in English and are Japan-focused.

For more details: http://www.japaninc.com/entrepreneur_handbook_seminar
-----------------------------------------------------------

----------------- Australia Society Tokyo -----------------

Come and join the Australia Society Tokyo at our annual Australia Day Ball
on Saturday 26th January, 2013 at the centrally-located ANA
Intercontinental Hotel ballroom.

Bookings for tables of ten guests can be arranged at members' rates and
individuals are of course welcome, too. Enjoy fantastic food, specially
selected wines, three different live music performances, and chat with a
wide variety of people. There are prizes to win, auctions to raise funds
for worthy causes, and a few surprises as well.

This event, being the highlight of our social calendar, attracts many so
register quickly as seats sell out fast. Treat yourself once a year - you
won't be disappointed!

Visit www.AustraliaSocietyTokyo.com to register.
-----------------------------------------------------------

------------------ Kyoto Convention Bureau ------------------

Invitation to Kyoto for Corporate Meeting Planners, 5th & 6th March 2013

Are you considering Kyoto for business events? The Kyoto Convention Bureau
invites you to join fellow decision-makers for a two-day learning-focused
workshop in Kyoto about using this city to add value to your corporate
meetings, incentive travel and events.

Full details:

http://www.hellokcb.or.jp/fam2013
ID: kyoto
Password: 2013
-----------------------------------------------------------

------------------ Prestigious Writing Prize --------------

The Japan - U.S. Innovation Award Program <http:/www.usjinnovate.org>,
which is produced by the Japan Society of Northern California in
cooperation with Stanford's US-Asia Technology Management Center, is
opening up a new award category this year: the "Untold Story in Innovation"
Award.

This will go to the author of a previously unpublished story of
intrapreneurial innovation inside a company (probably a large company) that
has relevance to Japan - U.S. business. This award is aimed at professional
or part-time journalists and other researchers/writers.

The award is for an English language piece of journalism. There will be one
winning author, who will receive a $3,000 cash prize. We will also
recognize two Award Alternates, who will each receive a $1,000 cash prize.
Although the cash prizes will only go to the winning
authors, the innovators and companies featured in their stories will also
be named as recipients of the honor.

The first step is to send in a "pitch" proposal to the Subcommittee for
this Untold Story award, namely:

Richard Dasher <rdasher at stanford.edu>
Dana Lewis <danalewis at mac.com>
Andrew Neuman <aneuman at usajapan.org>
with cc to John Thomas <JOHNRTHOMAS at me.com>

Deadline for the pitch is January 31, 2013. PLEASE REFER TO the attached
document for details on what to include in the pitch, etc. If you have
further questions, please contact Prof. Richard Dasher <rdasher at stanford.edu>
or Ms. Dana Lewis <danalewis at me.com>.
-----------------------------------------------------------

---------------- Share House Near Ikebukuro ---------------

There are gaijin share houses, and those that you share with others on a
casual basis, but none has the facilities and amenities of this
new-to-market offering in Oizumigakuen. Large 4-bedroom house with large
yard, share kitchen-living-dining rooms, and with your own large bedroom.
Available for short and long-term tenants. Just JPY50,000/month. Includes
share of internet connection.

Only 20 minutes by train from Shibuya/Ikebukuro.

Contact the owner at hatanokawakatsu at yahoo.com
-----------------------------------------------------------

***------------------------****-------------------------***

+++ CORRECTIONS/FEEDBACK

In this section we run comments and corrections submitted by readers. We
encourage you to spot our mistakes and amplify our points, by email, to
editors at terrie.com.

=> No corrections or comments this week.

***------------------------****-------------------------***

+++ TRAVEL DESTINATIONS PICKS

=> Tokei-ji, the Divorce Temple, Kanagawa-ken
Get Thee to the Nunnery!

Tokei-ji is located just a couple-of-minutes walk from Kita-Kamakura
station, about a 90 minute train ride south from central Tokyo. The temple
was founded in 1285 as a refuge for battered wives. Thus, it became known
as the "divorce temple". The grounds are dominated by an ancient
refreshingly shaded cemetery carved out of the hillside.

Many graves are adorned with statues that have been standing guard for
probably centuries. If you are there in the summer, Tokei-ji is a welcome
retreat from the harsh Japanese summers.

http://japantourist.jp/photos/tokei-ji-temple

=> Shrine of the Third Generation King, Chiba
Shinto shrine in a pristine, natural setting

Simplicity. Beautiful simplicity. While the bigger, more notable shrines of
Japan deserve their fame and waves of visitors, there is nothing quite like
the intimacy of a small, local shrine that appears to not have been changed
in its 800 years of existence. The Shrine of the Third Generation King
consists of an entire forested hilltop, with statues and monuments tucked
within tree roots, into the sides of the hill, and around every wooded
path.

The buildings are spread throughout an area that takes time to explore,
with every idea to check out some little clearing in the trees yielding
breathtaking results. Above the bustle of the town below, time here seems
isolated and hidden from the rest of the world. Built between the years
1171-1175 by the third son of Tsunetane Chiba, leader of the Chiba Clan, it
gives visitors a sense of the ancient, unmodernized Japan that is becoming
harder to find.

http://japantourist.jp/photos/shrine-of-the-third-generation-king

***------------------------****-------------------------***

***********************************************************
END

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+++ ABOUT US

STAFF
Written by: Terrie Lloyd (terrie.lloyd at japaninc.com)

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