Terrie's Take 902 - Fujitsu's Bottom Line Caught in a Widening Culture Gap, e-biz news from Japan

Mon Jun 26 09:15:02 JST 2017

* * * * * * * * TERRIE'S TAKE - BY TERRIE LLOYD * * * * * *
A weekly roundup of news & information from Terrie Lloyd, a long-term
technology and media entrepreneur living in Japan.
(http://www.terrielloyd.com)

General Edition Sunday, June 25, 2017, Issue No. 902

- What's New -- Fujitsu's Bottom Line Caught in a Widening Culture Gap
- News -- Stomach cancer sniffing dogs to start work
- Upcoming Events
- Corrections/Feedback
- Travel Picks -- Cycling in Kyoto, Terrifying Temple in Tokyo
- News Credits

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+++ WHAT'S NEW

For many years we have been fans of the investment site 
www.seekingalpha.com. This site is a forum for mostly professional 
investors to share insights and ideas about specific companies and their 
management teams. Many of the comments are terse and cryptic, just being 
sign-ins by competing fund managers looking to show they are still 
alive. But some of the commentaries are deep and insightful. As luck 
would have it, some of the best commentaries are from those hardy 
investors interested in Japanese stocks. I suspect that they want to 
educate the rest of the world that the black hole of information that is 
Japan is actually not that black, or mysterious, if you put some effort 
into researching it.

It is here that you can learn about the latest developments in obscure 
topics like lithium supplies and how these will affect not only auto 
makers like Tesla, but also the big Japanese players behind the scenes 
(Panasonic and Sumitomo). So it was with some interest that we saw 
several articles and one investor presentation about one of Japan's 
largest bedrock IT companies, Fujitsu. One of the articles was quite 
upbeat about Fujitsu, making out that the company is ahead of the curve 
in terms of restructuring and is getting ready for the future. If you 
were to read it, you might even be tempted to invest in the company. On 
the other hand, the presentation, an update on the last fiscal year, 
tells a rather different story and one that is not quite so optimistic. 
Today's Take refers to pages in the presentation, so you might want to 
open it up if you want to cross reference our comments. If you're on a 
mobile device without multiple windows, then just read on.

http://bit.ly/2s6pYc1 [Ed: Presentation URL]

Fujitsu, like Panasonic, is one of those Japanese megalithic companies 
that managed to grow by doing a bit of everything and using its vertical 
structure to lock out competitors (easy to do if you own the parts 
manufacturing firms, and by virtue of a 50-year association, the 
customers, too). In the 1990's and even early 2000's this was a 
successful strategy for both firms, and combined with overseas 
investment, they were able to continue growing.

However, even though Fujitsu is still making money and has been pretty 
consistent at it, the company is facing the most serious headwinds that 
has encountered since the post-war period. To be sure, business is still 
going well here in Japan, and the company is still able to squeeze 
overall sales and profit growth out of its local operations. However, as 
the presentation clearly shows on page two, there is something seriously 
wrong with its overseas operations, which have declined a huge 5% in the 
last two years as a percentage of overall sales. The graph says that the 
target is supposed to be 50% but currently it's 35%. This is all the 
more serious when you realize that Fujitsu has invested billions of 
dollars over the last 15 years to grow its overseas businesses.

So what is going on here?

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help develop the Inbound Travel market. Little did we know back then 
that the market would swell from 13m visitors that year to around double 
(26m estimated) this fiscal year. Japan Travel KK has been tracking the 
market and has enjoyed 100% sales gains each year for the last 3 years, 
with a repeat performance expected this year. The company is funded by 
the founders and a few friends, and is now offering a late seed round 
investment opportunity for up to 50 respondents. This will be a bridge 
financing to get us through to a more fully priced Series A round next 
year. We expect to go public sometime 2020~2022.

Anyone interested in learning more about investing in Japan Travel can 
apply for an Investor Memo which outlines the opportunity and the 
company's achievements to date. Making an inquiry is obligation-free, 
but per Japanese law, responses will be limited to the first 50 people.

For more information: terrie.lloyd at japantravel.com
-----------------------------------------------------------

[...Article continues]

Our take is that while the home markets are somewhat secure and locked 
up through personal relationships, overseas the company is being fully 
exposed to the new realities of the SI market. These realities are the 
massive move away from companies owning their own infrastructure and 
onsite assets, ranging from mainframes and PCs to retail POS systems and 
car navigation systems. The new masters of the universe are no longer 
Fujitsu's long-term competitors of IBM and Oracle, but instead are 
Amazon and Google and a cluster of new firms in the Artificial 
Intelligence (AI) and business applications space.

Of course Fujitsu can and probably will buy some of those smaller 
software firms to stay in the game, but in doing so, they will be 
repeating the previous M&A binge that brought them little or no 
long-term benefit. And why is that? Well, a hint is to be found on Page 
four of the presentation, which explains the strategic vision for the 
company and its activities. You have all the usual strategies of teaming 
with academia, with talent sources, and even with independent 
businesses. This third group is particularly important because one thing 
that has been happening overseas but which hasn't really hit Japan yet 
is the phenomenon of corporate collaboration - where you have big guys 
with the inventories and resources and little guys who are nimbler and 
better at selling online.

This collaboration trend requires the interconnection of systems and a 
step down from "I'm the big guy here" attitude - something that with the 
emergence of upstarts like Amazon and Tesla and the gradual displacement 
of the incumbents, is making large traditional companies reassess their 
value systems. Japanese big guys are still all about bullying their 
little suppliers and micro-controlling their inter-company transactions, 
so collaboration will be a tough move culturally for them. But pressed 
by simple economics, even they will have to change eventually. It's just 
going to take time.

So with this corporate culture gap looming before us, we can look at 
that strategic vision chart on page four with fresh eyes and realize 
that there is one hugely important piece totally missing from Fujitsu's 
strategy plan - collaboration with outsiders on software. The chart does 
say that the company will collaborate with smaller firms in "Ubiquitous 
Solutions" and "Devices", but this basically means Internet of Things 
sensors and a range of other hardware, and on a later page they refer to 
AI and Security, but no where is there mention of independent business 
software. So it appears that Fujitsu fully intends to develop the 
software applications itself, something it's not that good at (and 
certainly not in international markets), or buy the companies making 
such software.

So, on page six there is a diagram showing that the company plans to 
work with Open-source Software partners, but using what? The company's 
K5 cloud platform shows a patchwork of major brands that Open-source 
companies are trying to escape the clutches of - the Oracles, SAPs, and 
VMWares of the world. Furthermore, none of these technologies really 
addresses the real trend overseas, which is the move to small cloud apps 
for mobile devices for consumers and companies. So instead, Fujitsu 
intends to stay with huge systems that require an army of engineers to 
maintain.

This page six slide really indicates the bind that Fujitsu is in. Google 
and Apple (but not Amazon, which is a vertical megalith-in-the-making 
exception) have taught us is that if you want to have world domination 
for your standards and technologies then you need to co-opt a community 
of talented independent software companies that will be writing on top 
of your platform and providing their own solutions in and around your 
framework. Without this approach, all parts of your solutions will 
otherwise have to be developed by your less motivated internal staff, 
who are hardly incentivized to create world-changing excellent 
solutions. As a result, a company like Fujitsu and its customers will 
always be behind the curve on new market trends, and this will further 
stretch the firm's ability to keep up overseas.

Fujitsu needs to thoroughly study the transformation happening over at 
Microsoft, which is now realizing (once again) the importance of small 
developers, after several decades of focus on large systems and large 
partners. Microsoft is moving to a software utility model (a la Google) 
for little guys to plug in to, providing them access to deep technology 
that would be prohibitively expensive for them to develop from scratch - 
think AI, analytics, global data distribution, etc.

To be sure, Fujitsu is trying to create similar-looking framework with 
MetaArc, but not only do they not own anything original or even that 
interesting, their collaboration with outsiders is all ONE WAY - they 
suck information in and give little back. Thus, unless they can create 
their own meaningful technology and also get the collaboration religion 
then we think they are doomed to see their international business shrink 
at an increasing rate. Furthermore, once the collaboration wave hits 
Japan, which it surely will over the next five years, then they will be 
caught flat-footed here in Japan as well.

...The information janitors/

***------------------------****-------------------------***

***********************************************************

+++ NEWS

- Sailors to be allowed to sue TEPCO from USA
- Mobike coming to Japan
- Alipay and Lawson to tie up
- Is PM Abe about to be done in by another favors scandal?
- Stomach cancer sniffing dogs to start work

=> Sailors to be allowed to sue TEPCO from USA

While TEPCO, the power utility behind the Fukushima disaster, has been 
protected in Japan itself, a major legal decision in the USA has 
potentially opened the floodgates for legal claims against the company 
there. A U.S. Appeals court has said that 318 sailors aboard the USS 
Ronald Regan aircraft carrier that came to the aid of Fukushima are 
allowed to sue TEPCO for compensation from the U.S. and do not have to 
file suit in Japan. The sailors have brought a US$1bn class action suit 
against the company after being engulfed by the radioactive plume that 
was emitted after three of the plant reactors exploded. (Source: TT 
commentary from telegraph.co.uk, Jun 23, 2017)

http://bit.ly/2u2LxGZ

=> Mobike coming to Japan

Chinese bike rental phenomenon, Mobike, has announced that it plans to 
launch its bike sharing services in Japan later this year. The company 
will start in Fukuoka and expand out from that location. It's not clear 
how Mobike will overcome the strict Japanese municipal regulations 
governing the parking of bikes on roads and sidewalks, although it 
appears that they will use private land plots to park bikes. These may 
include convenience store lots and temporary parking locations. ***Ed: 
This move will certainly spur Japanese players into action, as Mobike's 
bikes are much simpler and thus lower cost (think 80% cheaper) to 
operate than are the high-end electric models popular with Japanese 
operators.** (Source: TT commentary from japantimes.co.jp, Jun 22, 2017)

http://bit.ly/2s9ybYj

=> Alipay and Lawson to tie up

China's largest smart phone payment system, Alipay, is making large 
inroads in Japan on the back of free-spending Chinese tourists. Now 
Alipay and the Lawson convenience story group have agreed to accept 
Alipay payment methods at 13,000 of Lawson's Japan stores. To 
incentivize spending, Lawson will give 1~5% cash rebates on customer 
purchases, in addition to their being able to use discount coupons. 
Alipay's parent, Ant Financial, reckons it can increase this beachhead 
move into at least 45,000 stores in Japan by the end of the year. ***Ed: 
Currently more than 80% of domestic mobile transactions are being made 
via Alipay, although WeChatPay is reporting growing its marketshare much 
faster and is likely to be a major competitor over the next 12 months.** 
(Source: TT commentary from asia.nikkei.com, Jun 23, 2017)

http://s.nikkei.com/2tIsGBL

=> Is PM Abe about to be done in by another favors scandal?

One of PM Shinzo Abe's greatest strengths and now a major weakness is 
his image as a clean, honest, but hard-driving politician. As Japanese 
have already shown, they are willing to accept a more-than-comfortable 
right-wing bent from their ruling party, so long as they don't see a 
return to the corruption of the previous 50 years. Unfortunately for 
Abe, this makes him very vulnerable politically whenever he is seen as 
doing something dirty. He is now at the center of a third scandal this 
year, all involving putting personal favors for friends. Firstly there 
was the low-priced land sale to the Moritomo Gakuen headed by a friend 
at the Nippon Kaigi lobby group, then the no-strings attached JPY90bn 
loan to another friend wanting to establish a veterinary school in 
Ehime. Now, however, Abe seems to be getting dragged into the worst 
scandal, involving a journalist friend who was being investigated by the 
police for raping a fellow journalist, when someone "from the top" 
ordered the investigation to be terminated. What with the discovery of 
incriminating documents in the Ministry of Education row over the vet 
school scandal, this latest development puts the PM under great 
pressure. The question is: will this negatively rebound on the LDP in 
the upcoming Tokyo elections?** (Source: TT commentary from 
thedailybeast.com, Jun 20, 2017)

http://thebea.st/2sEsqoX

=> Stomach cancer sniffing dogs to start work

One thing you gotta like about the Japanese is their willingness to 
pursue unconventional medical research. Take for example their herbal 
compendium of about 400 treatments ("Kampoyaku"), which are fully 
reimbursable on national health. Now the Nippon Medical School is 
rolling out a stomach cancer sniffing dog program for residents of a 
remote town in Yamagata Prefecture. Residents will collect and freeze 
urine samples which will then be couriered to the school for trained 
cancer sniffing dogs to preview. Apparently the dogs are almost 100% 
accurate with positive indications of cancer. ***Ed: Each dog costs 
about JPY4.5m to train, so this experiment is not a cost-saver, yet. 
However, a UK dog is on record as having sniffed an average 1,000 
samples a year for five years at 93%, which works out to JPY900/sample 
with accuracy rivaling the world's best labs - so there may be something 
in this.** (Source: TT commentary from smithsonianmag.com, Jun 20, 2017)

http://bit.ly/2t53PKD

NOTE: Broken links
Some online news sources remove their articles after just a few days of 
posting them, thus breaking our links -- we apologize for the inconvenience.

***------------------------****-------------------------***

+++ UPCOMING EVENTS

---------- ICA Event - Thursday 27th July -----------------

Speaker: John Kirch - Regional Director North Asia of Darktrace
Title: "Leveraging Artificial Intelligence to detect New, Emerging Cyber 
Threats in Realtime "

Details: Complete event details at http://www.icajapan.jp/
Date: Thursday 27th July, 2017
Time: 6:30pm Doors open
Cost: 1,000 yen (members), 2,000 yen (non-members). Open to all. No sign 
ups at the door!!!!!!!
RSVP: By 5pm on Monday 24th July 2017, Venue: Room F, 9F, Sumitomo 
Fudosan Roppongi Grand Tower, 3-2-1 Roppongi, Minato-ku, Tokyo, 106-0032
-----------------------------------------------------------

+++ CORRECTIONS/FEEDBACK

No corrections today.

***------------------------****-------------------------***

+++ TRAVEL DESTINATIONS PICKS

=> Ine Cycling, Kyoto
Two wheeled therapy by the seashore

The ancients channeled Ebisu and the elixir of eternity on the cliffs 
beyond the horizon, but today the only spirits we will imbibe are from 
the sake brewery - freshly-made sake from Kuramoto Mukai, famous for 
squeezing every bit of goodness from the Murasaki Komachi, a beautiful 
strain of purple rice that is truly a drink worthy of the divine.

It is a beautiful spring day. We snake and skirt the water's edge, with 
the sun behind us and the biggest smile on our face. We have this place 
to ourselves, in this preserved old town that thousands may have flown 
past from Japan to the Eurasian landmass. Where are we? Only three hours 
from Kyoto Station.

Even migrating birds like the Bar-tailed godwit, Eastern Curlew, Grey 
tailed Tattler, Great knot have seen more of Ine than their human 
counterparts from Australia, America or Russia.

By the way, the local guide has seen some of these bikes in far away 
Amanohashidate, a good hour away by bus. Not that these bikes have a 
migratory instinct, but as they are free, some too-clever bloke has 
taken it far beyond its nest in Ine Village, even with the tell-tale Ine 
logo prominently stamped on the side of the bike. Yes you have read it 
right; this is the cheapest bike hire in the world.

https://en.japantravel.com/kyoto/ine-cycling/30292

=> Tamagawa Daishi
An impressive temple in the suburbs of Tokyo

If you're out in the riverside Tokyo suburb of Futako-Tamagawa, ten or 
fifteen minutes to the west on the train from Shibuya, then it's worth 
walking a few minutes away from the huge shopping center that's the 
area's main draw. In a quiet residential area just to the north of the 
station and shopping center, there are a handful of ancient temples and 
shrines, of which Tamagawa Daishi is one of the most impressive.

I came first to a small shrine at the side, with a path through 
plentiful greenery to a small worship hall, which was pleasant in a 
low-key way.
Then I came to the main part of the temple, which is home to a 
population of various, interesting Buddhist statues, small and large, 
serene and fierce. There's one very imposing statue of a giant pilgrim, 
his head above the treetops: I didn't measure it, but it must be at 
least seven or eight meters tall.

https://en.japantravel.com/tokyo/temple-tamagawa-daishi/38621

***------------------------****-------------------------***

***********************************************************
END

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+++ ABOUT US

STAFF
Written by: Terrie Lloyd (terrie.lloyd at japaninc.com)

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