* * * * * * * * * T E R R I E 'S T A K E * * * * * * *<br>A weekly roundup of news & information from Terrie Lloyd.<br>(<a href="http://www.terrie.com">http://www.terrie.com</a>)<br><br>General Edition Sunday, December 20, 2009 Issue No. 547<br>
<br>+++ INDEX<br><br>- What's new<br>- News<br>- Candidate roundup/Vacancies<br>- Upcoming events<br>- Corrections/Feedback<br>- News credits<br><br>SUBSCRIBE to, UNSUBSCRIBE from Terrie's Take at:<br><a href="http://mailman.japaninc.com/mailman/listinfo/terrie">http://mailman.japaninc.com/mailman/listinfo/terrie</a><br>
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<br>--------- PBXL is Hosted Business Communications ----------<br><br><br>+++ WHAT'S NEW<br><br>It's that time again -- the last Terrie's Take of the year,<br>and as a result we take a look back over the news calendar <br>
for a quick review of events that have shaped Japanese <br>business in 2009 and which are likely to affect our <br>fortunes for the next 12 months as well. We'll be off for<br>two weeks and back as usual on January 10th -- with our <br>
predictions for 2010, so don't miss it.<br><br>Also, just before kicking off, we'd like to thank the <br>hundreds of people who answered the JHELP Christmas <br>Appeal. It's not too late if you still want to get involved in <br>
this rather unique "cash-less" donation program. What <br>you're donating instead of money is your time and a <br>sign-up to our new Metropolis Members Club as well <br>as PayPal. More details at <a href="http://www.metropolis.co.jp/members">www.metropolis.co.jp/members</a>.<br>
<br>So what caught our attention in 2009 and why?<br><br>=> February<br><br>Japan had a nice surprise when the new Obama administration<br>decided to send its second highest profile official, <br>Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, to Japan ahead of any <br>
other country in Asia. Clinton's visit highlighted to the <br>world that Japan was still the favored ally in Asia, no <br>doubt due to the almost US$1bn in treasuries and other U.S.<br>government debt held by the Japanese, as well as a <br>
commitment from Japan to join the global fiscal stimulus <br>measures being undertaken by first-world governments in <br>support of the U.S. Japan on its side still wants the U.S. <br>to maintain its nuclear umbrella over the nation, <br>
especially in light of earlier missile tests by North <br>Korea.<br><br>=> March <br><br>* March is the most miserable month for many Japanese, <br>because it marks the start of the pollen cycle for the <br>nation's sugi (cedar) and hinoki (cyprus) trees. Hay fever <br>
has become worse over the decades since WWII, due to an <br>ill-fated decision in the 1950's to choose Sugi trees as <br>the primary species for afforestation. Now 20% of the <br>population, if not more, suffer severe symptoms from hay <br>
fever. Authorities have admitted the problem and have <br>undertaken to halve the number of sugi trees over the next <br>10 years. <br><br>One sector of the population that doesn't mind the <br>situation, though, is tissue makers! During hay fever <br>
season 2009, the most popular product is Daio Paper's <br>Elleair Lotion Tissue, a moist tissue that is easy on the <br>skin. Japan's domestic tissue market has sales of about <br>JPY100bn annually, with moist tissues accounting for 5% <br>
but growing steadily. <br><br>* The battle of Japan's highly profitable internet/mobile <br>content titans went into its next phase in March when it <br>became clear that game specialist Gree was severely besting<br>(Social Network Service) innovator Mixi in the stock <br>
market. Gree hit a market cap of JPY102bn, based on its <br>FY2008 forecast of increasing profits by an amazing 560% to<br>JPY3.8bn (a number it actually achieved by its fiscal year <br>close in June 2009). In contrast, Mixi's market cap fell to<br>
JPY49bn. <br><br>Gree has been on a huge roll since it debuted on the <br>Mothers start-up market with a per share price of JPY5,000,<br>a 52% premium over its IPO price. The reason for Gree's <br>dream run is that more than 70% of its revenues come from <br>
user subscriptions to its games, not from ads - unlike <br>Mixi, which depends on ads for more than 90% of its income.<br>Unfortunately the ad market has been severely impacted by <br>the global downturn, while individual consumers are still <br>
spending on escapist pursuits.<br><br>* The Japanese government's fiscal stimulus measures hit <br>high gear with a cash handout to all residents, to spend as<br>they pleased. In a gesture modeled on the U.S. Bush <br>
handouts of 2008, the government gave every working age <br>resident JPY12,000 and every child and person aged 65 or <br>more JPY20,000. Debate raged over whether the stimulus <br>would have any appreciable effect on the economy (it didn't<br>
- less than 20% of the handouts got spent on consumption), <br>while costing the nation JPY2trn to fund it. <br><br>* Another stimulus measure which was much more popular, was<br>the lowering of expressway tolls to a flat JPY1,000 on <br>
weekends and national holidays. This had a dramatic impact <br>on the usage of the nation's road infrastructure, and <br>coupled with falling petrol prices ensured that on certain <br>weekends, Japan returned to having dozens of 30km+ traffic <br>
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-----------------------------------------------------------<br><br><br>[...Article continues]<br><br>April<br><br>* Nihon Unisys, a major Systems Integration firm owned by <br>trading house Mitsui, announced its plans to enter the <br>
electric vehicle infrastructure business by establishing a <br>network of around 1,000 electric vehicle recharging <br>stations by fiscal 2011. The company plans to install the <br>stations at shopping centers, offices, and other commercial<br>
locations throughout the country. It will provide customers<br>with both 100- and 200-volt outputs, allowing slow- and <br>quick-charge options. Payment will be by smart card. There <br>is no doubt that many other companies will jump into this <br>
area, helping Japan to quickly build out the recharging <br>infrastructure needed to push electric vehicle usage into <br>the mainstream.<br><br>* A story that moved the nation in April and which has a <br>high level of relevance for Japan's future - was about <br>
immigration. The Supreme Court validated an Immigration <br>Bureau deportation order for a Filipino couple, Arlan and <br>Sarah Calderon, and made them leave the country after being<br>found guilty of entering in the early 1990's with fake <br>
passports. While this may seem an open and shut case, their<br>13-year old daughter, Noriko, was born in Japan and only <br>speaks Japanese. The Immigration authorities gave the <br>family the agonizing choice of being able to leave Noriko <br>
behind in Japan so that she could continue her schooling, <br>or taking her to a country she'd never been to before and <br>couldn't function in - a choice that the family tearfully <br>made by saying goodbye to Noriko at Narita airport. <br>
<br>The case saw 20,000 local townspeople sign a petition <br>asking the government to make an exception for a family <br>that by all accounts was popular and hardworking. While <br>appearing hard-hearted, the issue for the government is <br>
that there are an estimated 150,000 visa over-stayers <br>(2008 estimate) to whom thousands of children are being <br>born each year, leading to a large moral problem for Japan <br>going forward. Clearly there is a lot of work ahead for the<br>
government in forging a workable immigration policy.<br><br>May<br><br>* The full impact of the global recession became clear when<br>even Japan's biggest and brightest were humbled by <br>plummeting sales. Auto maker Toyota reported a group <br>
operating loss of JPY461.01bn for fiscal year 2008 ending <br>March 31st, 2009, the company's first operating loss in 71 <br>years. At the same time, Nissan Motor also reported a large<br>loss of JPY137.9bn on revenues of JPY8.437trn, Nissan's <br>
first operating loss in 14 years. <br><br>* H1N1 (swine flu), or "new type influenza" as it is <br>referred to by the authorities, hit Japan in full force. At<br>the end of the month there were 361 infections recorded <br>
nationwide, mostly blamed on tourists returning from abroad <br>and bringing it with them. The flu scare was worst in <br>southern and western Japan. In the Kansai hundreds of <br>schools and kindergartens closed for a week or longer and <br>
victims were isolated at hospitals. The Shingata flu <br>continues even today, although it appears it peaked in <br>December 2009.<br><br>June<br><br>* After all the negativity of the preceding nine months, <br>the fiscal stimuli applied by first world governments <br>
around the globe appeared to be taking hold and the <br>banking sector and the stock market started to recover. <br>The Nikkei topped 10,000 for the first time since the <br>Lehman Shock, lifted by improved commodity prices and news <br>
that May consumer spending had unexpectedly improved.<br><br>* A glimpse of the future was provided with the start of <br>production of the world's first mass-produced electric <br>car, the Mitsubishi iMiEV, in the company's Okayama plant. <br>
Mitsubishi is about a year ahead of its competitors and <br>until production volumes increase is offering the first <br>year's output of 2,000 units of the micro-vehicle for <br>around JPY3m - well out of reach of the average family. <br>
As a result, most of the vehicles will wind up in company <br>fleets and as test vehicles.<br><br>* Facing the need for more tourist income, the government <br>made the decision to allow Chinese tourists to travel to <br>
Japan individually instead of in organized groups. The <br>move is expected to increase the number of Chinese <br>tourists by about 20% to 1.25m visitors in 2010, from <br>approximately 1m visitors (estimated) in 2009. More <br>
importantly, they are expected to generate about JPY40bn <br>in spending while here.<br><br>July <br><br>* Leading beverage makers Kirin and Suntory shocked the <br>drinks industry and corporate Japan by announcing that they<br>
would merge the two companies. Unlike many other mergers of<br>well-known brands in recent years, the Kirin-Suntory merger<br>differs in that both companies are in great shape <br>financially and are combining for strategic reasons rather<br>
than out of immediate desperation. This gives the deal <br>tremendous symbolic importance to corporate Japan, and is <br>seen as a sign of more to come. The joint market <br>capitalization of the Kirin-Suntory entity will be around <br>
JPY2trn, just 20% of the market cap of Coca-Cola -- so they<br>still have a ways to go to be considered a major player <br>internationally. <br><br>* While global media focus is on China and its efforts to <br>spend its U.S. dollars on natural resources before the dollar <br>
starts buying less, we should not forget that the biggest <br>Japanese companies are already deeply entrenched in the <br>supply-and-demand chains stretching around the world. This <br>point was reinforced in July when Tokyo Gas announced that <br>
it would buy a fully-priced stake in Australia's Gorgon <br>Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG ) project. The world's largest <br>gas utility said that it would be buying 1% of the project <br>for an estimated JPY30bn in costs contribution. Japan is <br>
the world's largest customer for LNG, consuming about 75m <br>tons annually. The Gorgon project is expected to produce <br>around 15m tons of LNG yearly from 2014 and Tokyo Gas has <br>already signed obligations for 1.2m tons of that output.<br>
<br>August <br><br>Japan has its 4-yearly Lower House election and for only <br>the second time in 50 years, the ruling Liberal Democratic <br>Party (LDP) is booted out of office. The opposition <br>Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) wins by a landslide margin <br>
of more than 300 seats out of 480 seats, and for the first <br>time has control of both the Lower and Upper houses, giving<br>it a virtual carte blanche to enact reform. Whether it does<br>so remains to be seen, but early moves are encouraging.<br>
<br>September<br><br>* On September 28th an American dad was arrested in Fukuoka<br>for trying to abduct his kids back to the USA, after his<br>Japanese ex-wife had first abducted them from him in the <br>USA. The Dad was 38-year old Chris Savoie, who subsequently<br>
spent 3 weeks in jail in Fukuoka until the police decided <br>not to charge him -- providing he left Japan without <br>comment. Interestingly, Savoie was also a Japanese citizen,<br>and by Japanese law he had not committed an offense that <br>
any other Japanese had previously been charged for, putting<br>the police and prosecutors in a bit of a predicament. <br>Savoie's actions were subsequently vilified in both <br>Japanese and foreign press, but his actions have definitely<br>
had a catalyzing effect on Japan's foot dragging over <br>signing the Hague Convention on international child <br>abduction. No one is holding their breath for quick fixes, <br>because not only does Japan need to sign the treaty but <br>
they also will need to change internal child custody laws <br>to fit 21st century international values.<br><br>* A rather surprising M&A occurred in the pharmaceutical <br>field, following earlier blockbuster deals in 2008. Seventh<br>
ranked Dainippon Sumitomo Pharma announced it would buy <br>U.S. start-up Sepracor for JPY250bn, almost the same amount<br>of money as Dainippon's ENTIRE sales of JPY264bn recorded <br>in FY2008. This high-risk move came as the company's <br>
revenues plunged 23% in FY2008 due to competition from <br>generic drug makers -- more evidence of the huge pressure <br>that Japan Inc. is under to change. <br><br>November<br><br>* Citibank completed unwinding the last of the major assets<br>
that it acquired when it picked up Nikko Cordial Securities<br>and its various subsidiaries. Market analysts say that Citi<br>came out of the Nikko experience relatively intact, and was<br>able to raise a significant amount of cash for its <br>
beleaguered headquarters. The asset was telemarketing <br>company, Bellsystems24, a business that was originally <br>started by CSK's visionary founder (now deceased) Isao <br>Okawa. Bain was the lucky suitor, reportedly paying around <br>
JPY100bn and beating out Permira Advisors and CVC Capital <br>(working with Blackstone Group) in the process. <br><br>* Corporate Japan's relentless search for international <br>revenues in face of a continued depressed market back home <br>
was further punctuated by Canon's gutsy JPY98bn (Eu730m) <br>offer to buy our rival Dutch-based printer maker Oce. Canon<br>paid a big 137% premium over Oce's average closing stock <br>price for the 12 months. It was Canon's largest M&A <br>
purchase to date. <br><br>And that's it from us for 2009... See you next year.<br><br><br>...The information janitors/<br><br>***------------------------****-------------------------***<br><br>----------- Discount Business Books in English ------------<br>
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<a href="http://www.cch-japan.jp">www.cch-japan.jp</a>.<br>-----------------------------------------------------------<br><br>+++ NEWS<br><br>- Governor's mansion unsold<br>- Jobless insurance premiums to rise<br>- Where will the government's 2010 revenue come from?<br>
- iPhone takes 46% of smartphone market<br><br><br><br>-> Governor's mansion unsold<br><br>It has come to light that the Tokyo Metropolitan Government<br>has spent the last 15 months trying to find a buyer for its<br>
Shoto, Shibuya-located official governor's residence. The <br>government built the residence in 1997 for JPY1.2bn, and is<br>now trying to sell it for JPY4.8bn. There are reportedly <br>some negotiations going on with foreign embassies, but in <br>
the face of a strengthening yen there are no takers yet. <br>***Ed: This property is just up the road from the Tokyu <br>Honten Department store. It's crammed into a long narrow <br>block that is unlikely to be appealing to developers. <br>
Someone needs to call in a proper property valuer instead <br>of going by the pricing of nearby but much more desirable <br>properties in the same area.** (Source: TT commentary from <br><a href="http://nikkei.co.jp">nikkei.co.jp</a>, Dec 16, 2009)<br>
<br><a href="http://www.nni.nikkei.co.jp/e/ac/tnks/Nni20091218D17HH523.htm">http://www.nni.nikkei.co.jp/e/ac/tnks/Nni20091218D17HH523.htm</a><br><br>-> Jobless insurance premiums to rise<br><br>We reported earlier in the year that it was likely that <br>
unemployment premiums would rise again, after they'd been <br>lowered last year by the LDP. Sure enough, it appears that <br>this will happen in April 2010. The increase will <br>apparently be 0.4% of the employee's salary, up from the <br>
existing 0.8% to 1.2%. The premiums will be shared 50/50 <br>between employer and employee, just as other social <br>insurance premiums are. ***Ed: While this increase is not<br>major, we wonder if it foretells likely future big increases<br>
in unemployment contributions over the coming years? We <br>wouldn't be surprised to see this "pseudo tax" double or <br>triple if the number of unemployed rise beyond 7%. (Source:<br>TT commentary from <a href="http://nikkei.co.jp">nikkei.co.jp</a>, Dec 18, 2009)<br>
<br><a href="http://www.nni.nikkei.co.jp/e/ac/tnks/Nni20091218D18JF626.htm">http://www.nni.nikkei.co.jp/e/ac/tnks/Nni20091218D18JF626.htm</a><br><br>-> Where will the government's 2010 revenue come from?<br><br>An interesting Forbes article sourced from Reuters explores<br>
the government's options to raise cash, in light of <br>drastically falling income tax revenues. According to the <br>article, the government plans to issue no more than <br>JPY44trn (US$491bn) in new bonds, and with tax income way <br>
down, it will therefore be looking at overhauling the many <br>fiscal leaks and leeches that are currently inherent to the<br>system. The "leaks" include dipping into some deliberate <br>created reserves such as foreign exchange and other cash <br>
held under the Fiscal Investment and Loan program, as well <br>as raiding job insurance and other funds set aside to cover<br>future commitments. The "leeches" include hospital funding,<br>campaign pledges (child care and road taxes), and of course<br>
general government spending.** (Source: TT commentary from <br><a href="http://forbes.com">forbes.com</a>, Dec 17, 2009)<br><br><a href="http://tinyurl.com/yckz7j5">http://tinyurl.com/yckz7j5</a><br><br>-> iPhone takes 46% of smartphone market<br>
<br>A study by Impress R&D has found that Apple's iPhone now <br>accounts for 46% of the entire smart phone market in Japan,<br>almost four times the 14.6% share held by the next most <br>popular smartphone maker, Sharp's W-Zero 3 Advance phone. <br>
Industry experts say that a combination of discounting by <br>Softbank Mobile coupled with significant advertising did <br>the trick. (Source: TT commentary from <a href="http://appleinsider.com">appleinsider.com</a>, <br>
Dec 18, 2009)<br><br><a href="http://tinyurl.com/yayqsyf">http://tinyurl.com/yayqsyf</a><br><br><br>NOTE: Broken links<br>Many online news sources remove their articles after just a<br>few days of posting them, thus breaking our links -- we<br>
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<br>***------------------------****-------------------------***<br><br>+++ CORRECTIONS/FEEDBACK<br><br>In this section we run comments and corrections submitted<br>by readers. We encourage you to spot our mistakes and<br>
amplify our points, by email, to <a href="mailto:editors@terrie.com">editors@terrie.com</a>.<br><br>*** No comments or feedback this week.<br><br>------------- Enliven Your Tired Website ------------------<br><br>The J@pan Inc Marketing department offers web development,<br>
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<br>***********************************************************<br>END<br><br>SUBSCRIBERS: 9,512 as of December 20, 2009<br>(We purge our list regularly.)<br><br>+++ ABOUT US<br><br>STAFF<br>Written by: Terrie Lloyd (<a href="mailto:terrie.lloyd@japaninc.com">terrie.lloyd@japaninc.com</a>)<br>
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