* * * * * * * * * T E R R I E 'S T A K E * * * * * * *<br>A weekly roundup of news & information from Terrie Lloyd.<br>(<a href="http://www.terrie.com">http://www.terrie.com</a>)<br><br>General Edition Sunday, January 10, 2009 Issue No. 548<br>
<br>+++ INDEX<br><br>- What's new<br>- News<br>- Candidate roundup/Vacancies<br>- Upcoming events<br>- Corrections/Feedback<br>- News credits<br><br>SUBSCRIBE to, UNSUBSCRIBE from Terrie's Take at:<br><a href="http://mailman.japaninc.com/mailman/listinfo/terrie">http://mailman.japaninc.com/mailman/listinfo/terrie</a><br>
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<br>--------- PBXL is Hosted Business Communications ----------<br><br><br>+++ WHAT'S NEW<br><br>Welcome to the first edition of Terrie's Take for 2010. We<br>hope that you were able to recharge your batteries over the<br>
New Year, and have come up with some new year's resolutions<br>that will create wealth and satisfaction for 2010. We did a<br>lot of thinking on beaches abroad, considering what might<br>happen to the world in 2010 and where Japan's strengths and<br>
weaknesses might be.<br><br>As a result, rather than try to predict specific events and<br>times, a set of wild guesses often, this year we thought<br>we'd take a longer term view and pick out some trends that<br>we think will crystallize or accelerate during 2010.<br>
<br>Enjoy!<br><br>1. China vs. Japan<br><br>As we have witnessed in 2009, China is gaining stature in<br>world affairs, and its actions are starting to matter.<br>While it would be easy to predict that Japanese firms,<br>
trading firms in particular, will start losing their<br>predominant position to the Chinese, we see an interesting<br>counterpoint starting to emerge: this is where<br>third-country companies are starting to realize that<br>
dealing with the Chinese may not always be a bed of roses<br>- despite the tantalizing prices being offered -- and are<br>choosing the Japanese in preference.<br><br>A good example of this type of push back can be found in<br>
the Australian agrichemical firm Nufarm, which was made an<br>Au$2.6bn takeover offer by Sinochem. This was probably a<br>good price, but Nufarm management said it was too low and<br>finally went with a much smaller sale of 20% of its shares<br>
to Sumitomo Chemical, for a premium of of an extra 20% per<br>share.<br><br>Looking at the dynamics of this deal, while Sumitomo may<br>have paid a bit more per share, in the end they still only<br>had to buy 20% of Nufarm in order to leverage themselves<br>
into that company's sales network as a major partner. More<br>importantly, the deal allowed Nufarm's management to stay<br>in place, run their own ship, and still tell their<br>shareholders that the Sumitomo deal was better.<br>
<br>We see this as a smart piece of strategy by Nufarm's<br>managers and Sumitomo, and we expect more competition<br>between the Chinese and Japanese where the choices made are<br>based on the Japanese being more accomodating. Generally<br>
speaking, we believe that the Japanese are still perceived<br>as being more reliable and easier to deal with -- outside<br>of Japan anyway... ;-)<br><br>2. Energy Storage Devices<br><br>Now that commercially available rechargeable electric<br>
vehicles are almost upon us, the pressure is on globally to<br>develop energy storage solutions that will move the auto<br>industry into the world of electric gadgets -- something<br>that the Japanese know all about. The holy grail is<br>
Lithium batteries and the Japanese are making great strides<br>in materials science to make them better. Specifically,<br>they are refining the electrodes so as to take faster<br>charges and to pack more energy into smaller spaces. Both<br>
Nissan and Panasonic are among the leaders in manganese<br>cathode electrodes, and Nissan was claiming just last month<br>that it now has a battery which can power a vehicle for<br>300km on a single charge -- about double the capacity<br>
possible now. The new battery will be available by 2015,<br>but in the meantime we can imagine that Nissan's<br>competitors are working to release even better technology<br>sooner. Keep a watch on GS Yuasa.<br><br>Close behind Lithium cells for the car are storage<br>
batteries for the home -- and these will be badly needed<br>once the solar energy subsidies now back in place in<br>Japan really start to kick in this year. Apparently<br>Panasonic, by virtue of its takeover of Sanyo, now has a<br>
storage battery that can deliver enough energy to power an<br>average Japanese home for about a week after being fully<br>charged. This could be a huge new business for Panasonic.<br>The storage battery will be publicly available sometime<br>
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<br>While Japan has its ubiquitous international export brands<br>such as Sony and Panasonic, these companies enjoy their<br>international standing largely thanks to government<br>programs put in place 70 years ago. As result, there are<br>
very few newer companies with strong international<br>profiles, and most prefer to stay in the domestic market.<br><br>However, the recession is changing attitudes, and recently<br>interest in export sales is surging. The hassle of dealing<br>
with foreigners and foreign payments and claims has been<br>overcome by the need for cash.<br><br>The most nimble of this new wave of domestic companies<br>arose in 2007-2009, when China started opening up to<br>Japanese exports (China-based manufacturing of course has<br>
been open for years), and further the freight prices<br>between both countries started falling substantially<br>because of the increasing volumes.<br><br>Among the products being sold abroad are Japanese processed<br>foodstuffs, fruit, and even some manufacturing again. One<br>
landmark deal that we think will really change Japanese<br>mid- to small-sized exporter's prospects this year was an<br>agreement done last year between Alibaba.com, the big B2B<br>web trading site in China, and Tokyo's Netprice. In the<br>
deal, Netprice is helping Japanese sellers to get their<br>goods to China, handling language and logistics. This<br>should be a strong trend as the Chinese perceive the health<br>and saftey of Japanese food and consumer goods as being<br>
far superior and worth the extra cost and inconvenience to<br>source. Netprice forecasted last year that by April 2010 it<br>would have over 500 Japanese small and medium-sized<br>companies selling under its system.<br><br>
We have the feeling that Rakuten isn't far behind.<br><br>4. Interest Rates May Rise<br><br>One question that everyone is asking right now is just how<br>long the U.S. can keep a lid on its economic turmoil and<br>keep down interest rates. While the official stance is that<br>
a bit of inflation is good, and certainly this will be the<br>eventual result of the quantitive easing going on, sooner or<br>later the dollar will start to slide again in value or interest<br>rates will have to go up. Nonetheless, we have been<br>
impressed with how the U.S. and other first world<br>governments and trading partners have banded together to<br>help the U.S. sidestep potential disaster by all making a<br>coordinate effort to do quantitive easing together. While<br>
no one has broken ranks yet, we can see that the Chinese<br>and several other major economic blocs are now starting to<br>demand concessions from the USA that might develop into<br>open conflicts and lead to even more turmoil.<br>
<br>In addition to the global economy, the Japanese<br>government's determination to swell public borrowing to<br>200% of GDP will probably exceed the ability of individual<br>Japanese investors to keep buying government bonds. We<br>
expect small lot investments to start drying up later this year.<br>When that happens, then foreign buyers of JGBs will be<br>needed and this will automatically drive up local interest<br>rates. Indeed, a report from the Chief Economist of<br>
JPMorgan Securities said late last year that Japan's<br>interest rates could rise at least 2% over the next decade<br>and that government debt servicing costs would increase<br>400%. Such figures are not really sustainable, and sooner<br>
or later JGB buyers are going to realize it.<br><br>5. Green Tech Economy Starts to Take Shape<br><br>Droughts, floods, extreme heatwaves and storms. Globally<br>the last ten years have seen a lot of turbulence from<br>mother nature and this is creating demand in first world<br>
nations for solutions. We believe that just as photovoltaic<br>and fuel cell systems are now household sized and priced,<br>water desalination and purification mini installations are<br>also not far away. Such systems should find ready buyers<br>
among the drier first-world countries with cities close to<br>the sea or to bodies of otherwise unpotable water.<br>Australia and the USA come to mind.<br><br>At the end of 2009 the Nikkei reckoned that about 38<br>Japanese firms were involved in various stages of the<br>
water purification and supply business. Japanese companies<br>have lots of experience in various types of filtration<br>technologies and activated materials, including nanofibers,<br>but are reportedly unable to compete on major projects<br>
or on price. To fix this, METI is setting up a study group<br>to accelerate the competitiveness of Japanese firms in<br>water. This seems to be especially important following a<br>French company, Veolia, winning a Japanese sewerage plant<br>
rebuild contract recently, in competition to the mighty<br>Ebara Corporation.<br><br>6. Food Shortages?<br><br>Anybody remember the soy bean shortage of the 1970's? This<br>period precepitated the first major ructure between Japan<br>
and the USA and highlighted Japan's lack of food self<br>sufficiency. Back then domestic production covered just 70%<br>of the nation's needs. Now, because of dietary changes and<br>the dependency on cheap vegetables from China, the amount<br>
of food produced domestically is even lower -- just 40%<br>(and this is 2007 figure so its probably even lower now).<br><br>Thus, Japan will be supersensitive to any global event that<br>might impact its key imports such as seafood, meat, and<br>
vegetables -- particularly soy beans.<br><br>There is a rumor circulating in the U.S. that although the<br>USDA is saying there will be a record soy bean harvest this<br>year, in fact weather impact reports from the same<br>
organization suggest that the growing season has been very<br>difficult -- particularly in the breadbasket mid-Western<br>states. We don't know which figures to believe, but the<br>impact statements say that production in these key states<br>
was down by as much as 30%.<br><br>Elsewhere in the world, Argentina's 2009 wheat harvest was<br>just 8.7m metric tons, down a whopping 50% from its 16.3m<br>tons in 2008, due to drought. However, Australia and Canada<br>
had increases in production, so these countries will give<br>the world's bread eaters a reprieve for this year at least.<br><br>7. JAL Pensions a Tipping Point?<br><br>We find it very interesting that the government is prepared<br>
to dump on JAL retirees and their pension entitlements in<br>order to put JAL's financial house in order. The right to<br>receive a steady pension is one of the most basic contracts<br>the government has made to Japanese society, and chipping<br>
away at the pension amounts has been the focus of many<br>parliamentary debates. Nonetheless, the pending JAL<br>bankruptcy will reduce pensions for current employees by<br>50% and for retirees by 30%. The company's pension fund has<br>
about JPY730bn in payment obligations and is underfunded by<br>about JPY330bn.<br><br>This of course is a situation that is mirrored in a number<br>of other major domestic companies as well as the<br>government's own public pension program -- which is likely<br>
to run out of money in the next few years. Thus, we see the<br>JAL negotiations as being about more than just a deal with<br>JAL. As a government-owned company in disguise, what<br>happens to to JAL's pensioners may well set a precedent for<br>
other companies in the future.<br><br>If the standard is a 30% cut for JAL retirees, we can<br>imagine that this may start to come up in future<br>discussions on how to cut the government pension benefits<br>as well. This could mean that a pension of approximately<br>
56% of an average salaried person (56% being the so-called<br>"Income Replacement Ratio") will drop to around 35%. Or put<br>another way, the roughly 80% average return of your pension<br>contributions will drop to around 55%.<br>
<br>For an average couple where the husband has worked 40<br>years, the current pension is around JPY230K/month.<br>Question is: can an elderly couple actually live on 30%<br>less than this amount ten years from now?<br><br>
8. More Tourists<br><br>On December 31st, the government said that its 10-year plan<br>will target a 3% growth in annual GDP, and will do so by<br>creating 4.76m jobs in the areas of environment, health,<br>and tourism.<br>
<br>Of these 3 sectors and their value to non-Japanese<br>business, the environmental sector in Japan generally means<br>government-funded projects of large scale -- which in turn<br>means cosy relationships with domestic companies. Strike<br>
One.<br><br>In the Health sector, equipment supply opportunities<br>abound, but actually getting involved in practicing<br>medicine, or owning an establishment that does, is for all<br>intents and purposes unavailable to non-Japanese. Strike<br>
Two.<br><br>Tourism, however, is an open field, and Japan is becoming<br>ever more interesting to asians whose own homelands are<br>either too warm, too crowded, under-developed, or just not<br>stimulating enough. Japan is still expensive, but the<br>
quality of service, food, shopping, safety, and natural<br>attractions are such that they will continue to pull large<br>swathes of people in -- especially as asia is starting to<br>recover financially from last year. A weak yen will accelerate<br>
this trend.<br><br>We expect a big resurgence in inbound tourists from Korea,<br>China, S.E. Asia, and Europe. These people are all here to<br>spend money and have a good time -- so what better clients<br>could you possibly want?<br>
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<a href="http://www.cch-japan.jp">www.cch-japan.jp</a>.<br>-----------------------------------------------------------<br><br>+++ NEWS<br><br>- Consumer group opposes JAL tie-up<br>- NTT Comm buys Swiss online English school<br>
- Console games market shrinks further<br>- November tax revenues plummet 25%<br>- Golf operator goes bust<br><br><br><br>-> Consumer group opposes JAL tie-up<br><br>An unlikely source of opposition to the JAL-Delta Airlines<br>
proposed investment/tie-up made itself known this last<br>week, when US-based Business Travel Coalition (BTC) said<br>that a Delta tie-up with JAL would not receive antitrust approval.<br>The BTC spokesperson said this was because between the two<br>
airlines they would control more than 60% of US-Japan<br>flights. BTC apparently recommends that JAL proceed with<br>the American Airlines deal and its OneWorld alliance. The BTC<br>has said that it will lobby the U.S. government to ensure<br>
Delta's is not successful. (Source: TT commentary from<br><a href="http://airwise.com">airwise.com</a>, Jan 7, 2010)<br><br><a href="http://news.airwise.com/story/view/1262865159.html">http://news.airwise.com/story/view/1262865159.html</a><br>
<br>-> NTT Comm buys Swiss online English school<br><br>Indicative of foreign investments being made by Japanese<br>firms recently, NTT Communications has said that it will be<br>buying 29.7% of a Swiss online English School operator<br>
called goFluent. NTT will in fact bring the service to<br>Japan in 2011, hoping ot garner both business and<br>individual sign-ups for the service. The purchase price has<br>not been disclosed, but is apparently in the<br>
JPY200m-JPY500m range. goFluent has about 30,000 users of<br>its service and last year had sales of JPY1.5bn. (Source:<br>TT commentary from <a href="http://nikkei.co.jp">nikkei.co.jp</a>, Jan 8, 2010)<br><br><a href="http://www.nni.nikkei.co.jp/e/ac/tnks/Nni20100107D07JSN05.htm">http://www.nni.nikkei.co.jp/e/ac/tnks/Nni20100107D07JSN05.htm</a><br>
<br>-> Console games market shrinks further<br><br>As Japan's population of kids decreases and market<br>saturation in games machines occurs, it is not surprising<br>that sales of console games shrank in 2009. Publisher<br>
Enterbrain says that the market for hardware and game<br>software dropped 6.9% to JPY542.64bn. Hardware was down<br>13.6%, evidencing consumer saturation, and software was<br>down 1.8%. The top three selling software titles for the<br>
year were Dragon Quest IX (Square Enix) with 4,100,968<br>copies, Pokemon HeartGold/SoulSilver (Pokemon) with<br>3,382,597 copies, and New Super Mario Bros. Wii (Nintendo)<br>with 2,485,150 copies. (Source: TT commentary from <a href="http://ign.com">ign.com</a>,<br>
Jan 3, 2010)<br><br><a href="http://au.ps3.ign.com/articles/105/1058229p1.html">http://au.ps3.ign.com/articles/105/1058229p1.html</a><br><br>-> November tax revenues plummet 25%<br><br>The financial crisis is not yet over, despite the<br>
improvement last year in the stock market. Proof of this<br>can be found in the fact that the government's primary<br>source of income, taxes, dropped a punishing 25.6% in<br>November 2009 compared with the same period in 2008. At<br>
this rate, fiscal year 2009 overall tax revenues may fall<br>below JPY37trn (US$399bn), less than half the income needed<br>to pay the operating budget of the government and its<br>thousands of agencies. Corporate tax was most severely hit,<br>
being down by 69.5% in November versus the year before.<br>(Source: TT commentary from <a href="http://reuters.com">reuters.com</a>, Jan 2, 2010)<br><br><a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTOE60305020100104?type=marketsNews">http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTOE60305020100104?type=marketsNews</a><br>
<br>-> Golf operator goes bust<br><br>As a sign of the ongoing problems in the resort and golfing<br>business. golf course operator Asahi Resort Kaihatsu went<br>bust last week, with JPY18.7bn in unpaid debts. Asahi<br>
operates just two courses, one in Hiroshima and the other<br>in Tottori -- which makes one wonder how they were allowed<br>to rack up such a huge amount of debt? ***Ed: In any case,<br>interesting to see these smaller operators continuing to<br>
drop like flies, even while gaijin-run Pacific Golf and<br>Accordia are logging modest growth and their courses<br>continue to be popular. Vision, quality of customer<br>experience, size and efficiency are clearly the keys to<br>
success in what has otherwise been a cottage industry.**<br>(Source: TT commentary from <a href="http://nikkei.co.jp">nikkei.co.jp</a>, Jan 9, 2010)<br><br><a href="http://www.nni.nikkei.co.jp/e/ac/tnks/Nni20100109D08JFA19.htm">http://www.nni.nikkei.co.jp/e/ac/tnks/Nni20100109D08JFA19.htm</a><br>
<br><br>NOTE: Broken links<br>Many online news sources remove their articles after just a<br>few days of posting them, thus breaking our links -- we<br>apologize for the inconvenience.<br><br><br>--------- BIOS - Bilingual IT Systems and Support ---------<br>
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<br>-----------------------------------------------------------<br><br>------------------ ICA Event - January 19 -----------------<br><br>Speaker: Marco Koeder, M.S., CyberMedia, Executive Manager<br>Topic: 'Keep it Vibrating'<br>
The Six Immutable Laws of Mobile Business<br><br>Details: Complete event details at <a href="http://www.icajapan.jp/">http://www.icajapan.jp/</a><br>(RSVP Required)<br><br>Date: Tuesday, January 19, 2010<br>Time: 6:30 Doors open, Buffet Dinner included and cash bar<br>
Cost: 4,000 yen (members), 6,000 yen (non-members)<br>Open to all - Venue is Shangri-La Hotel (Conway Rooms 2&3)<br><a href="http://www.shangri-la.com/en/property/tokyo/shangrila">http://www.shangri-la.com/en/property/tokyo/shangrila</a><br>
<br>-----------------------------------------------------------<br><br>***------------------------****-------------------------***<br><br>+++ CORRECTIONS/FEEDBACK<br><br>In this section we run comments and corrections submitted<br>
by readers. We encourage you to spot our mistakes and<br>amplify our points, by email, to <a href="mailto:editors@terrie.com">editors@terrie.com</a>.<br><br>*** No comments or feedback this week.<br><br><br><br>***********************************************************<br>
END<br><br>SUBSCRIBERS: 9,516 as of January 10, 2010<br>(We purge our list regularly.<br><br>+++ ABOUT US<br><br>STAFF<br>Written by: Terrie Lloyd (<a href="mailto:terrie.lloyd@japaninc.com">terrie.lloyd@japaninc.com</a>)<br>
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