* * * * * * * * * T E R R I E 'S T A K E * * * * * * *<br>A weekly roundup of news & information from Terrie Lloyd.<br>(<a href="http://www.terrie.com">http://www.terrie.com</a>)<br><br>General Edition Sunday, February 21, 2010 Issue No. 554<br>
<br>+++ INDEX<br><br>- What's new<br>- News<br>- Candidate roundup/Vacancies<br>- Upcoming events<br>- Corrections/Feedback<br>- News credits<br><br>SUBSCRIBE to, UNSUBSCRIBE from Terrie's Take at:<br><a href="http://mailman.japaninc.com/mailman/listinfo/terrie">http://mailman.japaninc.com/mailman/listinfo/terrie</a><br>
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<br>------------- PBXL is Business Communications -------------<br><br><br>+++ WHAT'S NEW<br><br>Despite what you may be reading in the newspapers about <br>improving GDP figures, don't be misled. Everything is not <br>
alright in the world of Japanese business. Sure, most <br>exporter-manufacturers are doing fine, largely thanks to <br>stimulus spending in China, but at about 16% of Japan's <br>GDP they do not represent the bulk of the economy. Instead,<br>
you need to look at the 58% of GDP which is domestic <br>consumption to see that things are not nearly as rosy. <br>Domestic growth is flat, and that is AFTER record government<br>stimulus measures to increase spending -- which is counted <br>
into GDP despite the fact that it represents debt for future <br>generations. Take away the stimulus, as the U.S. is getting<br>ready to do, and it's easy to imagine the economy taking <br>another dive.<br><br>Rather than GDP, we would look at consumer spending and the<br>
Consumer Price Index (CPI) as a better indication of what <br>is going on and providing an indication of trends, <br>particularly deflation. The Nikkei ran a story today <br>stating that excluding food and energy, in 2009 the CPI <br>
fell 0.7% to 98.6, the lowest level since 1992. For some <br>items such as furniture and kitchenware the CPI was just <br>93.9, the lowest since 1973! <br><br>So while this rampant level of deflation may look good for <br>
consumers, if it guts the earnings of domestic firms they <br>will have no choice but to lay off more staff, shutter <br>stores, cut suppliers, and thus the economic outlook won't <br>be rosy for long.<br><br>[Continued below...]<br>
<br>------------- Be Part of Metropolis' Future ---------------<br><br>Metropolis is considering bringing in private investors to <br>finance the company's growth plans on the Internet and <br>off-line as well. We wishes to survey our readership to see<br>
whether there is any interest by potential investors in<br>such an opportunity. <br><br>This is not solicitation to sell shares, however, if you <br>have an interest in private investments within Japan and <br>wish to participate in this survey, please contact <br>
Metropolis at <a href="mailto:isurvey@metropolis.co.jp">isurvey@metropolis.co.jp</a>.<br>-----------------------------------------------------------<br><br>[...Article continues]<br><br>Of course there are some winners, and turning saving money <br>
into a fun exercise for consumers has paid off well for <br>smart players such as Fast Retailing, Nitori, and others. <br>Foreign retailers with this business model are also doing <br>really well. For example, despite losing money seven years <br>
in a row, Seiyu/Walmart in the last quarter of last year <br>did notably better than their domestic competitors. Every <br>day low prices and global procurement are starting to make <br>a difference. Likewise, Ikea, H&M, and Zara are also <br>
reportedly doing well.<br><br>It is only natural then, that foreign firms not yet arrived<br>in Japan are seeing all the market changes going on are <br>considering jumping in. We have heard of a number of <br>major foreign retailers seriously eying up a foray into the <br>
Japan market and considering investments of many tens <br>of millions of dollars. Such investments are a huge risk, <br>so how are firms de-leveraging that risk?<br><br>One way which is a proven model is to start selling online <br>
from abroad and just marketing the brand in Japan. This is <br>entirely legal, so long as the products are not actually <br>sold in Japan and the user imports the products in <br>themselves. This model has been a proven one for many firms <br>
who have since established operations here. They typically <br>started their marketing campaigns in a low key online <br>manner, monitored their online audience take-up and shipping<br>volumes, then used those numbers to extrapolate how they <br>
would do if they set up in Japan itself. Amongst the <br>product segments that have used this approach have been <br>apparel, food, nutriceuticals, cosmetics, kitchen products, <br>computer goods, home goods such as bedding and interior <br>
decorations, and many others. <br><br>This offshore selling approach has been possible because so<br>long as the retailers are willing to smooth out the <br>international freight handling, support, and subsidize the <br>shipping costs, then Japan's Personal Import ("kojin <br>
yunyu") system works really well. The Personal Import <br>system allows for the simple import of private consumption <br>mail order goods without complex and time consuming <br>paperwork and lots of tax. Just to repeat, the Personal <br>
Import system cannot be used for resale, just for personal <br>consumption. It's been around for more than 15 years, and <br>it works great.<br><br>We've been watching the progress of one particular health <br>food company in California, which discovered the Japanese <br>
market about two years ago. They started experiencing a big<br>pickup in orders after they made their website available in<br>Japanese and established a Japanese help desk. Their prices <br>are about 50% that of similar goods in Japan, and of course<br>
there are a lot of things they stock that you can't even <br>get here. The website works well, offering buyers incentives,<br>and taking Japanese credit cards.<br><br>But the real kicker is that they have a deal with Yamato <br>
that allows them to ship product to Japan in just two days <br>for just US$8/kilo! That price/time frame is favorably <br>competitive with online product deliveries made within <br>Japan, even though the goods have to come all the way from <br>
the USA and have to go through customs. <br><br>Intrigued, we did some checking and found at that the firm <br>was probably getting a bulk rate of US$11/kilo from Yamato <br>(something Yamato wouldn't confirm) and that it was <br>
subsidizing the other US$3/kilo. This is incredibly smart, <br>because now Japanese residents can order from this firm <br>just as easily and cheaply as if they were buying online <br>from someone down the road. And with orders averaging more<br>
than US$60 (customer incentives kick in at this price), then <br>the extra US$3 is not a major burden.<br><br>If you are located in Japan and you want goods from abroad,<br>you should check out the Personal Import system, which you <br>
can use to import almost anything other than controlled <br>substances, narcotics, firearms, etc. There are a few <br>simple rules that appear on the Customs site at:<br> <br><a href="http://www.customs.go.jp/english/c-answer_e/customsanswer_e.htm">http://www.customs.go.jp/english/c-answer_e/customsanswer_e.htm</a>. <br>
<br>Basically the system is set up for mail order purchases and<br>all shipping has to go through either the Post Office or <br>approved couriers, else you will need to engage someone <br>from the Personal Import Information Center to do the <br>
paperwork for you at a cost of JPY4,500. There could be <br>other costs as well. You could also use a proper freight <br>forwarder, but since these firms are typically handling <br>large import volumes, they tend to be expensive for <br>
personal stuff.<br><br>For Personal Imports, so long as packages are valued at <br>less than JPY100,000, they are either uniformly taxed at <br>5% on their CIF value, or in many cases are not taxed at <br>all -- as seems to be the case with shipments via Yamato<br>
from the USA. While this may seem to be a weird anomaly in <br>the Japanese bureaucracy, we think this hints at why the <br>Personal Import system even exists at all. <br><br>Some years ago we asked the CEO of a leading U.S.-Japan <br>
Personal Import buying service company called Bargain <br>America, Mr. Tom Sato, what the most popular personal <br>import product was. He told us that Rogain, the hair <br>restorer tonic, was number one and couldn't be purchased in<br>
Japan. So, we imagine that system was established as a kind<br>of "pressure relief valve" for citizens who insist on using<br>foreign products and to not make them criminals for doing<br>so. Just they have to restrict volumes to non-commercial <br>
quantities and of course use those products at their own risk. <br><br>Actually, if you think about it, there are probably many <br>bureaucrats in their 50's who might be losing hair and <br>needing a bit of Rogain for themselves. Thus, they would<br>
have a practical reason for wanting to retain the system, <br>despite occasional rumors that it will be discontinued...<br><br>;-)<br><br>Lastly, take a look at the excellent reader response below<br>in the Corrections/Feedback section, as to why Japan has a<br>
nursing shortage.<br><br><br>...The information janitors/<br><br>***------------------------****-------------------------***<br><br>-------------- New CCH HR Guide in English ----------------<br><br>Introducing the all new 'Japan Staff Employment Law Guide'!<br>
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-----------------------------------------------------------<br><br>+++ NEWS<br><br>- Money laundering reports rise to record<br>- Personal bankruptcies down 2.5% to 126,000 cases<br>- U.S. treasury holdings by Japan expected to fall<br>
- Kirin sells agri/biotech units<br>- Carlyle loses uncool US$330m on Willcom bankruptcy<br><br><br><br>-> Money laundering reports rise to record<br><br>The National Police Agency (NPA) has released statistics <br>showing that following a 2008 law requiring banks to report<br>
possible money laundering transactions, there were in 2009 <br>272,326 suspect transactions recorded, up 15.8%. Of those <br>reported, the NPA took action on 337 transactions. ***Ed: <br>337 police actions doesn't sound like a great result to us.<br>
Maybe someone needs to do a better job of defining what is <br>suspicious, or at least filtering out the false <br>positives.** (Source: TT commentary from <a href="http://nikkei.co.jp">nikkei.co.jp</a>, Feb <br>18, 2010)<br>
<br><a href="http://www.nni.nikkei.co.jp/e/fr/tnks/Nni20100218D18JF876.htm">http://www.nni.nikkei.co.jp/e/fr/tnks/Nni20100218D18JF876.htm</a><br><br>-> Personal bankruptcies down 2.5% to 126,000 cases<br><br>Due to the change in the consumer lending laws in 2006 <br>
limiting how much people can actually lend and the interest <br>rates chargeable, personal bankruptcies fell by 2.5% last <br>year to 126,265 cases from 129,508 in 2008. There were <br>242,000 such bankruptcies in 2003, thus amounting to a drop<br>
of 48% over the last 6 years. At the same time, the number <br>of so-called "heavily indebted" individuals, being those <br>with five or more loans, fell 55% to 798,000 people in <br>December 2009 from a high of 1.8m people in February 2007. <br>
(Source: TT commentary from <a href="http://businessweek.com">businessweek.com</a>, Feb 18, 2010)<br><br><a href="http://tinyurl.com/yzt7smc">http://tinyurl.com/yzt7smc</a><br><br>-> U.S. treasury holdings by Japan expected to fall<br>
<br>In a dubious honor, Japan once again become the number one <br>foreign holder of U.S. treasuries in December 2009, <br>overtaking China as the Middle Kingdom sought to sell down <br>its U.S. holdings. Apparently Japanese buyers sought to <br>
take advantage of a high yen rate during November 2009. <br>Japan now holds about US$768.8bn in U.S. sovereign debt, <br>versus US$755.4bn for China. (Source: TT commentary from <br><a href="http://wsj.com">wsj.com</a>, Feb 17, 2010)<br>
<br><a href="http://tinyurl.com/yzc768y">http://tinyurl.com/yzc768y</a><br><br>-> Kirin sells agri/biotech units<br><br>Strangely going against the trend of growing biotech <br>businesses outside Japan, Kirin Holdings has agreed instead<br>
to sell both its domestic and foreign agri/biotech <br>subsidiaries to a Dutch private equity fund called H2 <br>Equity Partners. The two units had combined sales of <br>JPY15.4bn. ***Ed: So is Kirin pulling back from its <br>
international efforts, or simply pulling in more cash to <br>weather the downturn in the domestic market? If the latter,<br>this may be a cause for concern.** (Source: TT commentary <br>from <a href="http://nikkei.co.jp">nikkei.co.jp</a>, Feb 18, 2010)<br>
<br><a href="http://www.nni.nikkei.co.jp/e/fr/tnks/Nni20100218D18JF934.htm">http://www.nni.nikkei.co.jp/e/fr/tnks/Nni20100218D18JF934.htm</a><br><br>-> Carlyle loses uncool US$330m on Willcom bankruptcy<br> <br>The bankruptcy of the Willcom cell phone company created <br>
some major financial fall-out for private equity firm <br>Carlyle Group, when it was announced that Willcom's entire <br>capital would be written off. Carlyle bought 60% of Willcom<br>from KDDI in 2004, and will lose an estimated US$330m as a <br>
result of the failure. Discussions are now reportedly in <br>progress for Softbank and Advantage Partners to pick up the<br>business. ***Ed: We wonder what they can do that Carlyle <br>couldn't. Willcom is old technology and those 4.3m <br>
customers need to be moved on to a new platform. A new <br>brand for Softbank's infrastructure perhaps?** (Source: TT <br>commentary from <a href="http://washingtonpost.com">washingtonpost.com</a>, Feb 19, 2010)<br><br>
<a href="http://tinyurl.com/yjrzsox">http://tinyurl.com/yjrzsox</a><br><br><br>NOTE: Broken links<br>Many online news sources remove their articles after just a<br>few days of posting them, thus breaking our links -- we<br>
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<br>Interested individuals may e-mail resumes to:<br><a href="mailto:stuart.gibson@biosjp.com">stuart.gibson@biosjp.com</a><br><br>-----------------------------------------------------------<br><br><br>***------------------------****-------------------------***<br>
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opportunity to find out what is involved, and to ask <br>specific questions that are not normally answered<br>in business books. All materials are in English and are <br>Japan-focused.<br><br>For more details:<br><a href="http://www.japaninc.com/entrepreneur_handbook_seminar">http://www.japaninc.com/entrepreneur_handbook_seminar</a>, or,<br>
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5. Individual tax (25 mins)<br>- Overview plus structuring a compensation package<br><br>Date: Monday, March 8, 2010 1:30PM-4:45PM<br>Venue: Happo-en (5F, Linden), 1-1-1 Shirokanedai Minato-ku<br>Fees: 20,000yen+Tax<br><br>
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-----------------------------------------------------------<br><br>***------------------------****-------------------------***<br><br>+++ CORRECTIONS/FEEDBACK<br><br>In this section we run comments and corrections submitted<br>
by readers. We encourage you to spot our mistakes and<br>amplify our points, by email, to <a href="mailto:editors@terrie.com">editors@terrie.com</a>.<br><br>*** In response to our TT553 commentary about the sorry <br>economic state of many Japanese hospitals, a reader <br>
submitted the following interesting commentary about why <br>there is a shortage of nurses:<br><br>=> Reader: Why there is a shortage of nurses in Japan.<br><br>Japan is of course not unique in having "Everyone says so, <br>
so it must be true" myths with no basis in fact. But it <br>does provide a few truly breathtaking examples. Your <br>excellent article on medical tourism reminded me of the <br>"nurse shortage" in Japan. This is not a "correction" to <br>
anything in your article, just something to support the <br>premise that Japan is often not able to fix problems <br>because it refuses to face reality.<br><br>Japan in fact has a HUGE SURPLUS of registered nurses. It <br>
has for decades. There is only a perceived "shortage" <br>because most quit early. They quit at a staggering rate, <br>many after just one or two years, vowing never to return. <br>The exact number of "stay-at-home-nurses" is kind of <br>
taboo, but it HAS to be in the many hundreds of <br>thousands. Japan's own Nursing Association admits that 1 <br>out of every 10 nurses quits the profession after working <br>less than TWELVE MONTHS.<br><br>Japan's 1,025 two/three/five-year nursing schools can turn <br>
out 64,000 nurses a year (although they only turn out <br>around 45,000 annually these days; <a href="http://www.nurse.or.jp">www.nurse.or.jp</a>). Let's <br>say that there have been 2.2m new nurses over the last 40 <br>
years. Japan currently has 1.1m or so nurses actually <br>working, so that's a 50% attrition rate! What other <br>profession that requires a degree and a national exam <br>loses more than half its members? Doctors? Lawyers? <br>
Pilots...? Hardly.<br><br>Japan doesn't want to focus on attrition, but when forced <br>to says that since most nurses are female they can't work <br>while pregnant. This is dumb because pregnant nurses do <br>just fine in the world's 220 or so other countries. The <br>
real reasons why Japanese nurses quit are not discussed <br>but clear. They include include unmitigatedly hard work, low<br>pay, inhumanly inflexible work schedules, practically no <br>vacation, power harassment by superiors (the worst horror <br>
stories I have ever heard of workplace misery involve <br>backstabbing among nurses themselves), and other harassment<br>in various forms, including what you might expect by this <br>country's famously haughty physicians. <br>
<br>But the #1 reason for their leaving is night work. Japan's <br>unwritten nursing code of conduct demands lifetime sleep <br>deprivation, even though it is dangerous <br>(<a href="http://joh.med.uoeh-u.ac.jp/pdf/E43/E43_3_07.pdf">http://joh.med.uoeh-u.ac.jp/pdf/E43/E43_3_07.pdf</a>). <br>
Marriage and children and nursing are incompatible, which <br>explains why nearly every nurse in Japan seems to be either<br>22 or 62. I suspect (there are no statistics) that 70%-90% <br>of all working nurses in Japan are either unmarried, <br>
childless, or over 50.<br> <br>The solution to this problem is simple, obvious, and will <br>never be implemented: more flexible working hours. Many <br>nurses would return to the workforce if they could work <br>when it was convenient for them and their families. More <br>
flexible salaries would also mean nurses would be happy to <br>work nights if it was financially lucrative. Basically the<br>powers that be need to tell the doctors and senior nurses <br>controlling the profession to loosen their strict <br>
attitudes a little, to match the change in societal values.<br>But I suspect that nothing will be done because, as with <br>JAL, those who control the culture like it the way it is <br>and will never change voluntarily. Rather than admit the <br>
real problems and fix them, their "answer" is to import <br>foreigners they think will accept treatment that Japanese <br>themselves will not put up with. Unfortunately, importing <br>foreign nurses is as stupid now as it was 20 years ago with<br>
the Senreikei experiment, which brought a dozen Filipina to<br>Japan at astronomical cost. In the end exactly two ended up<br>passing their required examinations - and even those two <br>both soon quit Japan anyway...! <br>
<br>Trying to supplement a workforce with numbers in the <br>millions by importing a handful of foreigners is bad policy<br>in of itself, but since the odds against a foreigner <br>passing a Japanese national examination are well known, the<br>
policy looks cynical to the point of being deliberately <br>anti-foreign. I predict that one of these days, a patient <br>will die from a medical error involving a foreign nurse. <br>Japan will then forbid all foreigners from participating in<br>
the medical professions, and the Japanese will somehow <br>muddle through, out of necessity, with some kind of <br>solution that involves only themselves.<br><br>***********************************************************<br>
END<br><br>SUBSCRIBERS: 9,129 as of February 21, 2010<br>(We purge our list regularly.<br><br>+++ ABOUT US<br><br>STAFF<br>Written by: Terrie Lloyd (<a href="mailto:terrie.lloyd@japaninc.com">terrie.lloyd@japaninc.com</a>)<br>
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