* * * * * * * * * T E R R I E 'S T A K E * * * * * * *<br>A weekly roundup of news & information from Terrie Lloyd.<br>(<a href="http://www.terrie.com">http://www.terrie.com</a>)<br><br>General Edition Sunday, January 09, 2010, Issue No. 596<br>
<br>+++ INDEX<br><br>- What's New<br>- Short Takes<br>- News<br>- Candidate Roundup/Vacancies<br>- Upcoming Events<br>- Corrections/Feedback<br>- News Credits<br><br>SUBSCRIBE to, UNSUBSCRIBE from Terrie's Take at:<br>
<a href="http://mailman.japaninc.com/mailman/listinfo/terrie">http://mailman.japaninc.com/mailman/listinfo/terrie</a><br><br>BACK ISSUES<br><a href="http://www.japaninc.com/terries_take">http://www.japaninc.com/terries_take</a>, or,<br>
<a href="http://mailman.japaninc.com/pipermail/terrie/">http://mailman.japaninc.com/pipermail/terrie/</a><br><br><br>---------- PBXL SUPPORTS TELL AND YOU SHOULD TOO ----------<br><br>PBXL's corporate responsibility efforts are tightly aligned<br>
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For information about TELL visit <a href="http://www.telljp.com/">http://www.telljp.com/</a><br><br>------------ PBXL is BUSINESS COMMUNICATIONS --------------<br><br><br>+++ WHAT'S NEW<br><br>Welcome back to Terrie's Take for 2011. Last year we broke <br>
with our tradition of forecasting actual events to focus on<br>trends instead. Readers expressed some disappointment, <br>because actual events are more likely to not happen and <br>more likely to make us look like asses. We agree that <br>
entertainment is an important aspect of Terrie's Take, and <br>certainly don't mind looking more like the asses we <br>already are, so for 2011, we're back to specific events.<br><br>But for the record, if you take a look at the forecast for <br>
2010, at <a href="http://mailman.japaninc.com/pipermail/terrie/">http://mailman.japaninc.com/pipermail/terrie/</a>, we <br>were pretty much on the money for 5 out of 8 forecasts and <br>the other 3 are still "on the way" but have been delayed <br>
due to skillful maneuvering of the markets by the major <br>industrialized nations.<br><br>So here we go:<br><br>1. Prime Minister Kan will stay on for at least 6 months<br><br>Naoto Kan, the current Prime Minister of Japan, found his <br>
way into the job by virtue of there being no other suitable<br>candidates. We think that after a soft start that saw Kan <br>using challenger Ichiro Ozawa's power base to get the job, <br>Kan and his team have accomplished the difficult job of <br>
pulling away from Ozawa without causing a civil war within <br>the ranks of the DPJ party. We think that Kan is <br>underestimated and has a lot more grit than the media give <br>him credit for. He is slowly but surely forming a workable <br>
policy base that will see him stay in power beyond the <br>calls for resignation that are going on at the moment. As <br>for Ozawa, the justice machine is grinding slowly in his <br>direction and a guilty verdict will take him out of <br>
politics for a while to come. Indeed, we think he'll get <br>sick as a result of the stress and use this as an excuse <br>to exit the political stage.<br><br>2. Consumption tax goes on the political agenda<br><br>The increase of the consumption tax to cover social <br>
spending in Japan is an unavoidable subject, due to the <br>fact that the government shows no sign of reducing its <br>current budget and commitments to family and retiree <br>benefits. Given that the next general election isn't until <br>
Q1 2013, we anticipate that if Kan can stabilize his <br>position and the trade figures for Japan continue to stay <br>consistent, then the he will raise once more the topic of <br>increasing the consumption tax from 5% to 10% or above. <br>
Last time the tax was discussed it toppled the Hatoyama <br>government in 2010, so Kan is going to want broad consensus<br>before bringing this to a national discussion level. We <br>think he will do this and initiate an intelligent debate <br>
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<br>[...Article continues]<br><br>3. Yen to stay in the 80's<br><br>The reason for a high yen versus the US dollar is hard to <br>fathom, given how shaky the government's finances are -- <br>far exceeding the problems in Greece or Ireland. While the <br>
US is certainly in a difficult situation as well, at least <br>they are doing something about their economy. 2011 will see<br>the US dollar have a "twitchy" first half, going up and <br>down as dollar buyers know that they are playing with a <br>
contaminated commodity, then in the second half, as the <br>quantatitive easing falls off and economy tightens, consumer <br>spending will be choked off again and there will be another<br>downwards push on the dollar. During this first half lull, <br>
Japan will largely ignore its internal economic issues and <br>be content to rely on international trade surpluses and <br>raising money through government bonds. In the second half <br>of the year, the parlous state of Japan's finances will <br>
come to the fore again and consumption tax will become the <br>obvious way to buy more time. Indeed, if the tax is <br>increased by 5%, then that will buy at least another 5 <br>years of excess spending before that reservoir of cash is <br>
used up as well.<br><br>4. Oil and electrics<br><br>If Israel is going to attack Iran's nuclear installations, <br>it will be this year. This will be a precipitating event <br>that will cause oil to soar in price again, and will make <br>
Nissan and Mitsubishi look pretty good for all their <br>efforts to roll out electric vehicles while most of the <br>market thinks they are still an oddity. From all accounts, <br>both companies, but Nissan in particular, are making big <br>
strides in the viability of lithium battery technology and <br>we expect to see Nissan take advantage of a global oil <br>crisis to emerge as a star player in the stock markets. <br><br>5. No North Asia military confrontation<br>
<br>It looks like China has managed to talk some sense into the<br>North Koreans, for now at least, and the tensions between <br>it and South Korea have eased. However, with the <br>bombardment of Yeongpyeong island, the damage is done and <br>
this marks the start of an arms build up in North Asia. <br>Japan isn't saying much, but we expect some big budget <br>earmarking to be going on over the next few months, as the <br>country beefs up its military. We don't think there will be<br>
"game-ending" military confrontation between the Koreas <br>this year. South Korea is doing too well financially to <br>throw it all away, and North Korea can be bribed, as it <br>well knows and expects.<br><br>
6. Food safety and opportunity<br><br>Japan is going to have increasing problems with food <br>safety, especially for foods originating in China. Because <br>there was no major scare in 2010, we think that increases <br>the likelihood of another incident this year. Bird Flu <br>
version two mixed with imported meats perhaps? While most <br>such scares are more media events than real threats to <br>society they do have the effect of changing consumer buying<br>behaviors. Therefore, Japan's farming industry has an <br>
interesting business opportunity ahead of it -- selling <br>high-value food back to Asia as being pure and <br>contaminant-free. This is already happening with fruit, and<br>we expect it to expand to rice, water, fish, and other <br>
staples that are all entirely available elsewhere in Asia, <br>but which because of their "Made in Japan" stamp will sell <br>well to wealthy Asian consumers.<br><br>7. Increase in industrial accidents<br><br>Besides China, food safety in Japan is also threatened by <br>
the potential for industrial accidents, as companies reduce<br>maintenance spending and try to find cheaper ways to get <br>manufacturing done. As an example of what a potential havoc<br>an industrial accident might cause, a ship carrying 1000 <br>
tons of vinyl acetate monomer, a component of synthetic <br>textiles and paints, sank off the coast of Niigata just <br>today. This particular chemical is believed to cause cancer<br>when found in drinking water. We can only assume that <br>
whatever seafood is farmed along the coastline in Niigata, <br>we wouldn't want to be eating any of it over the next 6 <br>months if the ship's load has started leaking. <br><br>What kind of accidents do we see happening? Anything <br>
relating to rusting infrastructure -- with explosions of <br>chemical plants and factory fires at the top of the list.<br><br>8. More M&As<br><br>Because of the polarization of Japanese industry, with the <br>exporters managing to make profits and grow while those <br>
serving the domestic market are suffering, the number of <br>M&As between Japanese firms and also involving foreign <br>firms will continue to increase. We think that Chinese <br>firms trying to take over Japanese ones will cause some <br>
kind of media backlash within this year, and paranoia about<br>Japan getting bought out and controlled by foreigners will <br>become a national talking point. Actually we're surprised <br>that this hasn't happened already -- attributable, perhaps,<br>
to the fact that most of the Chinese acquisitions have been<br>of low-grade or obscure companies. <br><br>Within our own area of interest, which is new tech/high <br>tech, we think there will be more deals like the Zynga and <br>
Groupon deals of 2010. One company we think is ripe for <br>a buy-out, although the parent company isn't hurting at <br>this stage is Dwango's Nico Nico Douga operation -- a kind <br>of Japanese version of Youtube.<br>
<br><br>...The information janitors/<br><br>***------------------------****-------------------------***<br><br><br>+++ SHORT TAKES<br><br>We recommend products and services that you might find <br>interesting or useful while living in Japan.<br>
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<br><br>+++ NEWS<br><br>- Motor company to expand foreign R&D inside Japan<br>- Advanced garbage separator<br>- Twitter usage over New Year hits record<br>- China funds ramp up purchases of Japanese company shares<br>
- Pee-pressure games in the Metro<br><br><br>-> Motor company to expand foreign R&D inside Japan<br><br>Electric motor behemoth Nidec Corporation is setting the <br>tone for future investment in Japan by announcing it will <br>
spend JPY15bn on a new Kawasaki-based R&D center, due for <br>completion in 2012 through 2014 (two stages). Nothing <br>unusual in that. But what made us pay attention is that <br>Nidec will bring about 150 researchers from the USA, UK, <br>
and India and will make English the dominant language. This<br>is one of the outcomes of Nidec's takeover of Emerson <br>Electric in the USA and its desire to bring Emerson's rare <br>earth-free motor technology to Japan. ***Ed: Nidec is one <br>
very smart and motivated company.** (Source: TT commentary <br>from <a href="http://nikkei.com">nikkei.com</a>, Jan 8, 2011)<br><br><a href="http://e.nikkei.com/e/fr/tnks/Nni20110107D07JFN04.htm">http://e.nikkei.com/e/fr/tnks/Nni20110107D07JFN04.htm</a><br>
<br>-> Advanced garbage separator<br><br>Separating garbage is a big deal in Japan and neighbors <br>keep an eagle eye out for people who can't tell plastic <br>from paper (except in Shibuya-ku, where the two are now <br>
burned together). Mitsui Engineering & Shipbuilding and <br>Taziri Company have come up with a machine that can <br>separate raw waste from comustible garbage, which <br>householders are allowed to throw out together. The device <br>
is a huge centrifugal drum coupled with a shredder and air <br>pumps. The device uses centrifugal force to retain the raw <br>garbage while blowing the combustibles into a separate <br>chamber. Apparently the machine is so good that it can <br>
separate the tea leaves from a disposed tea bag. (Source: <br>TT commentary from <a href="http://nikkei.com">nikkei.com</a>, Jan 7, 2011)<br><br><a href="http://e.nikkei.com/e/ac/tnks/Nni20110106D06JSN03.htm">http://e.nikkei.com/e/ac/tnks/Nni20110106D06JSN03.htm</a><br>
<br>-> Twitter usage over New Year hits record<br><br>In 2010 the Japanese discovered Twitter and have become a <br>major source of usage for the service worldwide, <br>confirming the fact that Japanese love texting. On New <br>
Year's Eve, Japanese users set a global record for tweets <br>on the service, with 6,939 tweets per second just after <br>midnight. In comparison, the USA generated about 3,000 <br>tweets per second. ***Ed: Do we really care?** (Source: TT <br>
commentary from <a href="http://pcmag.com">pcmag.com</a>, Jan 7, 2011)<br><br><a href="http://www.pcmag.com/article2/0,2817,2375378,00.asp">http://www.pcmag.com/article2/0,2817,2375378,00.asp</a><br><br>-> China funds ramp up purchases of Japanese company shares<br>
<br>The free market dictates that the one with money gets to <br>invest where they please, and so unless the Japanese <br>government wants to try to limit foreign investment into <br>its firms, a step towards commercial suicide, it will have <br>
to put up with the fact that China-based funds, and <br>particularly government funds, are buying a lot more <br>company shares here. A Chibagin Asset Management study late <br>last year has found that Chinese funds have increased their<br>
Japanese corporate holdings by more than 1000% to JPY1.5trn<br>in the 18-month period ending September 2011. Chibagin <br>reckons that at the current rate of investment, the two <br>main government funds will yet again double their holdings <br>
to JPY3trn by March this year. ***Ed: Why people care about<br>China funds buying shares, so long as they are not holding <br>controlling positions, is beyond us. The share purchases <br>are of direct benefit to Japanese companies and pose no <br>
security threat, although we suppose that the shares could <br>be dumped in times of conflict, causing a potential run for<br>the exit by other shareholders.** (Source: TT commentary <br>from <a href="http://japantoday.com">japantoday.com</a>, Jan 8, 2011)<br>
<br><a href="http://tinyurl.com/23s2wk8">http://tinyurl.com/23s2wk8</a><br><br>-> Pee-pressure games in the Metro<br><br>Only in Japan? In an effort to find new advertising display<br>opportunities, Sega has started testing pressure-controlled<br>
toilet games/ads display consoles in mens' urinals at Metro<br>stations around Tokyo, until January 31st. The games are <br>designed to allow male patrons to have a bit of fun and <br>distraction while taking a whizz. Amongst the four games, <br>
one measures the strength of urine flow, one allows you to <br>clean a screen with a hose, one allows you to compete <br>against another character trying to flush them away, and <br>the last allows you to try to cause wind to blow up a <br>
girl's skirt. ***Ed: None of these games would last long in<br>the West, especially the last one, but gives some insight <br>into what goes here in Japan. Will be interesting if <br>patrons can last the distance of one game...** (Source: TT <br>
commentary from <a href="http://wired.com">wired.com</a>, Jan 7, 2011)<br><br><a href="http://www.wired.com/gamelife/2011/01/sega-urinal-games/">http://www.wired.com/gamelife/2011/01/sega-urinal-games/</a><br><br><br>NOTE: Broken links<br>
Many online news sources remove their articles after just a<br>few days of posting them, thus breaking our links -- we<br>apologize for the inconvenience.<br><br>***------------------------****-------------------------***<br>
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<br>+++ CANDIDATE ROUND UP/VACANCIES<br><br>=> BiOS, a Division of the LINC Media group, is actively <br>marketing the following positions for customers setting up <br>or expanding in Japan, as well as other employers of <br>
bilinguals.<br><br>** HIGHLIGHTED POSITION<br><br>BiOS is now urgently looking for an experienced Senior <br>Infrastructure Engineer to join the bilingual technical <br>team in Tokyo. The ideal candidate for this role will be <br>
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<br>-----------------------------------------------------------<br><br>***------------------------****-------------------------***<br><br><br>+++ UPCOMING EVENTS/ANNOUNCEMENTS<br><br>---------------- ICA Event - January 20 -------------------<br>
<br>Speaker: Keith Wilkinson, Google Analytics<br>- Web Marketing & CMS Consultant<br><br>Title: How Much Is Your Web Site Worth?<br>How to Leverage Web Analytics and Web Marketing!<br><br>Details: Complete event details at <a href="http://www.icajapan.jp/">http://www.icajapan.jp/</a><br>
(RSVP Required)<br><br>Date: Thursday, January 20, 2011<br>Time: 6:30 Doors open, Buffet Dinner included and cash bar<br>Cost: 4,000 yen (members), 6,000 yen (non-members) Open to <br>all. Venue is The Foreign Correspondents' Club of Japan.<br>
<br><a href="http://www.fccj.or.jp/aboutus/map">http://www.fccj.or.jp/aboutus/map</a><br>-----------------------------------------------------------<br><br>--------------- Start a Company in Japan ------------------<br><br>
Entrepreneur's Handbook Seminar 19th of February, 2011<br><br>If you have been considering setting up your own company,<br>find out what it takes to make it successful.<br>Terrie Lloyd, founder of over 13 start-up companies in Japan,<br>
will be giving an English-language seminar and Q and A on<br>starting up a company in Japan.<br>This is an ideal opportunity to find out what is involved,<br>and to ask specific questions that are not normally answered<br>
in business books.<br>All materials are in English and are Japan-focused.<br><br>For more details:<br><a href="http://www.japaninc.com/entrepreneur_handbook_seminar">http://www.japaninc.com/entrepreneur_handbook_seminar</a><br>
-----------------------------------------------------------<br><br>***------------------------****-------------------------***<br><br>+++ CORRECTIONS/FEEDBACK<br><br>In this section we run comments and corrections submitted<br>
by readers. We encourage you to spot our mistakes and<br>amplify our points, by email, to <a href="mailto:editors@terrie.com">editors@terrie.com</a>.<br><br>*** No comments or feedback this week.<br><br>***********************************************************<br>
END<br><br>SUBSCRIBERS: 8,730 members as of January 09, 2010<br>(We purge our list regularly.)<br><br>+++ ABOUT US<br><br>STAFF<br>Written by: Terrie Lloyd (<a href="mailto:terrie.lloyd@japaninc.com">terrie.lloyd@japaninc.com</a>)<br>
<br>HELP: E-mail <a href="mailto:Terrie-request@mailman.japaninc.com">Terrie-request@mailman.japaninc.com</a><br>with the word 'help' in the subject or body (don't include<br>the quotes), and you will get back a message with<br>
instructions.<br><br>FEEDBACK<br>Send letters (Feedback, Inquiries & Information) to the<br>editor to <a href="mailto:terrie.lloyd@japaninc.com">terrie.lloyd@japaninc.com</a>.<br><br>ADVERTISING INFORMATION<br>For more information on advertising in this newsletter,<br>
Contact <a href="mailto:ads@japaninc.com">ads@japaninc.com</a>.<br><br>SUBSCRIBE<br>Get Terrie's Take by giving your name and email address at<br><a href="http://www.japaninc.com/newsletters/free_sign_up">http://www.japaninc.com/newsletters/free_sign_up</a>, or go<br>
straight to Mailman at:<br><a href="http://mailman.japaninc.com/mailman/listinfo/terrie">http://mailman.japaninc.com/mailman/listinfo/terrie</a><br><br>BACK ISSUES<br><a href="http://www.japaninc.com/terries_take">http://www.japaninc.com/terries_take</a><br>
or, <a href="http://mailman.japaninc.com/pipermail/terrie/">http://mailman.japaninc.com/pipermail/terrie/</a><br><br>Copyright 2010 Japan Inc. Communications Inc.<br><br>----------------- Japan Inc opens up Japan ----------------<br>
<br>J@pan Inc is Japan's only independently published English-<br>language business website. Authoritatively chronicling <br>online the business trends in Japan, each posting brings <br>you in-depth analysis of business, people and technology in<br>
the world's second largest economy. <br><br>Visit <a href="http://www.japaninc.com">www.japaninc.com</a> for the best business insight on<br>Japan available.<br>-----------------------------------------------------------<br>
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