* * * * * * * * * T E R R I E 'S T A K E * * * * * * *<br>A weekly roundup of news & information from Terrie Lloyd.<br>(<a href="http://www.terrie.com">http://www.terrie.com</a>)<br><br>General Edition Sunday, March 27, 2011, Issue No. 607<br>
<br>+++ INDEX<br><br>- What's New -- Economic Fall-out from Fukushima<br>- News -- Will Japan get Summer Time?<br>- Candidate Roundup/Vacancies<br>- Upcoming Events<br>- Corrections/Feedback<br>- News Credits<br><br>SUBSCRIBE to, UNSUBSCRIBE from Terrie's Take at:<br>
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<br>----------- PBXL is BUSINESS COMMUNICATIONS ------------<br><br>+++ WHAT'S NEW<br><br>Two weeks after the Tohoku-Kanto earthquake, life in Tokyo <br>has entered a stage of uneasy calm. We all know that just <br>250km to the north, the Fukushima power plant is still <br>
spewing radiation locally, and in the last day or so <br>officials have had to admit that the containment vessel in <br>the Number 2 reactor is probably leaking radioactive <br>material into the plant and eventually the ocean. When it <br>
rains as it did last week, or when the wind blows from the <br>North, as it did today, the number of people going outside <br>noticeably drops. Everyone is conscious of the risks.<br><br>The fact is that the radiation levels are still low in <br>
Tokyo, but it doesn't help that the city's water supply was<br>contaminated some days ago, then improved, then suddenly <br>came up dangerous again in outlying areas of Chiba and <br>Ibaraki. Just how uneasy Tokyo's 35m people feel can be <br>
gauged by the ongoing shortages in the supermarkets. Even<br>though supplies were supposed to have re-started this last<br>week, most stores are completely sold out of water, toilet <br>paper, dairy products, and regular types of bread. Well, at<br>
least gasoline is available again.<br><br>For reliable radiation readings on a daily basis out in <br>Chiba, go here:<br><br><a href="http://www.jcac.or.jp/lib/senryo_lib/senryo_009.pdf">http://www.jcac.or.jp/lib/senryo_lib/senryo_009.pdf</a><br>
<br>In our part of town, in the shopping triangle represented <br>by Shinjuku to Shibuya and then through to Roppongi/Akasaka<br>there is still a lot less people shopping and eating out <br>than there usually are. Again, the average person is in a <br>
state of nervous agitation and the last thing they are <br>thinking of is relaxing with friends at a restaurant or <br>buying new clothes. This state will eventually subside, but<br>not until the nightly TV coverage of an almost <br>
out-of-control nuclear reactor ends.<br><br>In Minato-ku, the heartland of foreign expats living in <br>Tokyo, the streets are bare of foreign families. <br>Conveniently it has been school break and many have left to<br>spend time elsewhere. But it's not just the foreigners <br>
leaving, we are hearing many stories of Japanese family men<br>sending their wife and kids elsewhere as well, while they <br>continue working in Tokyo. <br><br>This is all creating a feeling of foreboding by those of us<br>
in business, that tough times are ahead. Wanting to get a <br>feel at ground level, over the last few days we've been <br>visiting local restaurants and what we're hearing is that<br>patronage is down 30% to 50%, with those establishments <br>
serving foreigners seeing almost no customers at all. It's<br>a dire situation and unfortunate given that 2011 started <br>out so promisingly.<br><br>So just how bad will the financial situation will become?<br><br>[Continued below...]<br>
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<br>[...Article continues]<br><br>The Japanese government said late this week that they <br>expect to see a maximum of JPY25trn (US$300bn approx.) in <br>damage caused by the earthquake and resulting tsunami. <br>Offsetting this impact would be about JPY25trn of <br>
rebuilding to take place over the next three years. This of<br>course assumes that people decide to go back to living <br>where they were and that entire communities won't instead <br>decide to uproot and move somewhere else -- something which<br>
appears to be happening amongst working-age people. The<br>oldies will of course stay where they are.<br><br>In addition, the government estimates the impact of <br>interrupted factory output in autos, electricals, <br>chemicals, and other high-volume industries as being around<br>
JPY250bn (US$3bn). While this number appears to be <br>manageable, our guess is that it falls woefully short of <br>the real impact that the quake and the nuclear crisis in <br>particular are going to have on the country. If you take <br>
into account the food, entertainment, apparel, beauty, <br>health/sports, and other discretionary-spending business <br>sectors, and the rolling power cuts that will run in the <br>Kanto (Tokyo and surrounds) for at least another 4-6 <br>
weeks, then the real cost of this earthquake may be <br>much higher.<br><br>What concerns us is that while the government has announced<br>special loans for major and mid-sized companies, there <br>doesn't seem to be much interest in the other 26% of the <br>
domestic GDP, being small companies and proprietor-run <br>establishments. Our guess is that without some support to <br>these firms, the number of bankruptcies here in Tokyo will <br>soar later on this year and the unemployment rate will rise<br>
accordingly. In fact, in 2006, 87% of companies in Japan <br>employed 20 people or less, so they may not account for <br>much GDP, but they do account for a lot of workers.<br><br>Let's look at two sectors that we feel the government has <br>
underestimated the impact of the nuclear crisis: travel and<br>food exports.<br><br>1. Travel:<br><br>Travel accounts for just over 2% of the nation's GDP, or <br>around JPY10trn. Most of this is domestic travel, but <br>
foreign travelers bring fresh, unencumbered cash into the <br>economy and so have extra value. This year, the government <br>was going to try to push for 11m foreign tourists, but <br>after the earthquake and the nuclear scare, the number of <br>
incoming travelers passing through Narita Immigration <br>has instead plummeted by 60% from March 11 through 22nd. <br>In contrast, the number of foreigners leaving surged from <br>20,000 over the same period a year ago to 190,000. No <br>
wonder the streets in Roppongi look deserted...<br><br>Domestic travel is also heavily affected, again going back <br>to the fact that no one feels like engaging in frivolous <br>activities while a nuclear crisis is in full swing. As of <br>
last week, domestic travel reservations were down 33% at <br>JTB and trips North were down 70% while those to Tokyo were<br>down 60%. Of course bookings are up in the Kansai, as many <br>head west to relative safety.<br><br>
2. Food Exports:<br><br>Japan's food exports are a small fraction of the GDP, at<br> around JPY270bn (US$3.27bn) in 2009, and were expected to <br>rise this year. The leading export is seafood, at <br>US$1.47bn, but with the leaking of Iodine-131 into the <br>
ocean off the Fukushima power plant, the likelihood is that<br>volumes will fall sharply for some months. Why are food <br>exports important? Because with the anticipated signing by <br>Japan of the TPP trade pact to open up the agricultural <br>
market here, food exports were supposed to provide farmers <br>with a way of being able to cope with the flood of cheap <br>imports that TPP will bring about. Unfortunately, now that <br>many countries have started banning Japanese food imports, <br>
we imagine that the TPP itself will be postponed or thrown<br>out as well.<br><br>One other sector that looks like it will be hit by the <br>nuclear crisis is high-end property in Tokyo. Basically <br>those who can afford luxury apartments and high-end land <br>
are also those who are most able to pull up stakes and be <br>somewhere else: be they expatriate families or wealthy <br>Japanese retirees. A number of major property developers <br>have seen their shares fall and we expect this trend to <br>
pick up steam if the Fukushima plant No. 2 reactor turns <br>out to have been breached. Even if it hasn't, experts are <br>saying that the nuclear crisis could last for months, <br>causing the current uneasy batten-down-the-hatches <br>
atmosphere to become highly disruptive to normal business <br>and consumption in a city which absorbs more than 25% of<br>all goods and services in the country.<br><br>As a result, we're wondering if the economic impact from <br>
the earthquake won't be much worse than the government is <br>predicting, and whether there won't be a mini "melt down" <br>of some sectors of the economy here.<br><br><br>...The information janitors/<br>
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<br>+++ NEWS<br><br>- IOM helps foreign residents wanting to leave<br>- Summer Time switch to save electricity?<br>- New biodegradable plastic much stronger<br>- 16 foreign nurses pass national exams<br>- Higashikokubaru for Tokyo governor?<br>
<br><br><br>-> IOM helps foreign residents wanting to leave<br><br>The International Organization for Migration (IOM) has <br>announced a service to help financially constrained <br>foreigners who were living in the earthquake zone from <br>
Aomori down to Chiba to evacuate from Japan. Apparently IOM<br>has already helped more than 100 people leave the country <br>by paying for transportation to the airport and one-way <br>flights out of the country. ***Ed: Interesting, we didn't <br>
even know there was such an organization. This is the first<br>time for them to operate in Japan.** (Source: TT commentary<br>from <a href="http://nikkei.com">nikkei.com</a>, Mar 26, 2011)<br><br><a href="http://e.nikkei.com/e/ac/tnks/Nni20110326D26JF030.htm">http://e.nikkei.com/e/ac/tnks/Nni20110326D26JF030.htm</a><br>
<br>-> Summer Time switch to save electricity?<br><br>One of the more interesting ideas to save electricity this <br>coming summer is to put the country on Summer Time. <br>Although common elsewhere in the world, after a short <br>
period right after the War, Japan has carefully avoided <br>setting clocks forward an hour due to complaints from <br>farmers and others. However, it appears that by switching <br>to Summer Time and extending the effective day light hours,<br>
the country may save as much as 930,000 kiloliters of crude<br>oil for power generation -- about the same as what the <br>nation's rail operators will use over the same 10-week <br>summer period. (Source: TT commentary from <a href="http://reuters.com">reuters.com</a>, Mar<br>
26, 2011)<br><br><a href="http://af.reuters.com/article/energyOilNews/idAFL3E7EQ00I20110326?sp=true">http://af.reuters.com/article/energyOilNews/idAFL3E7EQ00I20110326?sp=true</a><br><br>-> New biodegradable plastic much stronger<br>
<br>A company that we really like, Kaneka Corporation, is a <br>real power house of inventions and new technology and has <br>come up with another winner. The company says it has fitted<br>out a trial factory capable of producing 1,000 tons of PHBH<br>
plastic, a biodegradable material produced by microbes from<br>vegetable oil. If the trial facility works out, the company<br>will upgrade for 10,000 tons/year. Compared to regular <br>biodegradable plastics, Kaneka PHBH withstands heat and <br>
stretching better and will be used for supermarket shopping<br>bags and farm-based PVC applications. (Source: TT <br>commentary from <a href="http://nikkei.com">nikkei.com</a>, Mar 25, 2011)<br><br><a href="http://e.nikkei.com/e/ac/TNKS/Nni20110324D24JSN02.htm?NS-query=kaneka">http://e.nikkei.com/e/ac/TNKS/Nni20110324D24JSN02.htm?NS-query=kaneka</a><br>
<br>-> 16 foreign nurses pass national exams<br><br>The number of foreign nurses passing the national nursing<br>exams is still just 4% of the total, but at least this time<br>around 16 Indonesian and Filipino nurses made the grade, <br>
compared with just 3 who passed in 2009. The Health <br>Ministry agreed last year to make the exams a bit more <br>foreigner friendly by rephrasing of difficult kanji questions, <br>and naming some diseases in English. (Source: TT <br>
commentary from <a href="http://japantimes.co.jp">japantimes.co.jp</a>, Mar 26, 2011)<br><br><a href="http://search.japantimes.co.jp/cgi-bin/nn20110326b1.html">http://search.japantimes.co.jp/cgi-bin/nn20110326b1.html</a><br>
<br>-> Higashikokubaru for Tokyo governor?<br><br>Of the five new contenders for the job of Governor of <br>Tokyo, we believe that only Hideo Higashikokubaru has the <br>name recognition needed to make a serious run against <br>
incumbent governor Shintaro Ishihara. Higashikokubaru was <br>the former governor of Miyazaki and prior to that a <br>well-known comedian. He ended several months of speculation<br>by announcing he would run the week before last. <br>
Unfortunately governor Ishihara has decided at 78 that <br>three terms is not enough and will run again. ***Ed: One<br>wonders if Ishihara will ever be brought to book for the <br>Shinginko debacle. One billion dollars is a lot of cash for<br>
the city to lose.** (Source: TT commentary from <a href="http://asahi.com">asahi.com</a>, <br>Mar 09, 2011)<br><br><a href="http://www.asahi.com/english/TKY201103080173.html">http://www.asahi.com/english/TKY201103080173.html</a><br>
<br><br><br>NOTE: Broken links<br>Many online news sources remove their articles after just a<br>few days of posting them, thus breaking our links -- we<br>apologize for the inconvenience.<br><br>***------------------------****-------------------------***<br>
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<br>Details: Complete event details at <a href="http://www.icajapan.jp/">http://www.icajapan.jp/</a><br>(RSVP Required)<br><br>Date: Thursday, April 21, 2011<br>Time: 6:30 Doors open, Buffet Dinner included and cash bar<br>
Cost: 4,000 yen (members), 6,000 yen (non-members) Open to <br>all. Venue is The Foreign Correspondents' Club of Japan<br><br><a href="http://www.fccj.or.jp/aboutus/map">http://www.fccj.or.jp/aboutus/map</a><br>-----------------------------------------------------------<br>
<br>***------------------------****-------------------------***<br><br>+++ CORRECTIONS/FEEDBACK<br><br>In this section we run comments and corrections submitted<br>by readers. We encourage you to spot our mistakes and<br>
amplify our points, by email, to <a href="mailto:editors@terrie.com">editors@terrie.com</a>.<br><br>*** In TT606 we did a quick round up of radiation facts <br>and how the fear factor has impacted life and work in <br>Tokyo. We got lots of feedback, many thanks.<br>
<br>=> Reader 1 comments:<br><br>On the numbers side of things. For Radiation Sickness, I <br>think you meant 500mSv or 500,000uSv, not 500,000 mSv. <br>[Ed: Yes, indeed]<br><br>=> Reader 2 comments:<br><br>"Nuclear IS Green Energy." [Ed: Hmmm, he has a point there!]<br>
<br><br>***********************************************************<br>END<br><br>SUBSCRIBERS: 8,802 members as of March 27th, 2011<br>(We purge our list regularly.)<br><br>+++ ABOUT US<br><br>STAFF<br>Written by: Terrie Lloyd (<a href="mailto:terrie.lloyd@japaninc.com">terrie.lloyd@japaninc.com</a>)<br>
<br>HELP: E-mail <a href="mailto:Terrie-request@mailman.japaninc.com">Terrie-request@mailman.japaninc.com</a><br>with the word 'help' in the subject or body (don't include<br>the quotes), and you will get back a message with<br>
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<br>J@pan Inc is Japan's only independently published English-<br>language business website. Authoritatively chronicling <br>online the business trends in Japan, each posting brings <br>you in-depth analysis of business, people and technology in<br>
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