* * * * * * * * * T E R R I E 'S T A K E * * * * * * *<br>A weekly roundup of news & information from Terrie Lloyd.<br>(<a href="http://www.terrie.com">http://www.terrie.com</a>)<br><br>General Edition Sunday, April 17 2011, Issue No. 610<br>
<br>+++ INDEX<br><br>- What's New -- Alternatives to Summer Power Cuts<br>- News -- March disastrous for earnings, tourism<br>- Candidate Roundup/Vacancies<br>- Upcoming Events<br>- Corrections/Feedback -- Toshiba's NAND shortages<br>
- News Credits<br><br>SUBSCRIBE to, UNSUBSCRIBE from Terrie's Take at:<br><a href="http://mailman.japaninc.com/mailman/listinfo/terrie">http://mailman.japaninc.com/mailman/listinfo/terrie</a><br><br>BACK ISSUES<br><a href="http://www.japaninc.com/terries_take">http://www.japaninc.com/terries_take</a>, or,<br>
<a href="http://mailman.japaninc.com/pipermail/terrie/">http://mailman.japaninc.com/pipermail/terrie/</a><br><br><br>------------ PBXL IP TELEPHONY AND CLOUD BCP --------------<br><br>Since PBXL started in 2006, we have consistently focused on<br>
providing high quality, cloud based telephony services.<br>Designed around a high-availability, data center based<br>deployment, we are proud to report that our customers were<br>able to both make and receive calls during the earthquake<br>
and ensuing challenges.<br><br>Additionally, due to PBXL’s flexible system design, PBXL<br>was able to continue providing call center services and<br>other enterprise connectivity to both offices and remote<br>workers. With summer coming, and with it likely power<br>
shortages, PBXL’s remote access and office solutions enable<br>a mobile workforce to continue to service customers<br>regardless of location, without requiring a phone number<br>change for many Tokyo and Yokohama offices.<br>
<br>Call us at 03-4550-2557, e-mail us at <a href="mailto:bcp@pbxl.jp">bcp@pbxl.jp</a> or for<br>more information on Tokyo and Yokohama power-safe telephony<br>visit us at <a href="http://en.pbxl.jp/bcp.php">http://en.pbxl.jp/bcp.php</a><br>
<br>------------ PBXL is BUSINESS COMMUNICATIONS --------------<br><br><br>+++ WHAT'S NEW<br><br>Just about anywhere you go for business in Tokyo at the <br>moment, whether a multinational's corporate headquarters or<br>
the corner store, all conversations start off with the <br>nuclear crisis and the possible power cuts in summer. <br>Consumers and companies alike dread the prospect of no <br>production/wages and no air conditioning from July through <br>
September. <br><br>And this year is supposed to be another scorcher like 2010 <br>was.<br><br>So just how much power will we be short of, and is the <br>possibility of office staff having to work in 30-degree+ <br>temperatures likely to happen? Well, just after the quake, <br>
certainly there were dire predictions that the nation would<br>be short 27 gigawatts (peak of 60GW down to 33GW now). The <br>government's reaction was that it would have to order <br>across-the-board power consumption cuts of up to 25%, <br>
causing amongst other things for office thermostats to be <br>set a few more degrees higher than normal (a sweat-inducing<br>28 degrees is "normal"). And this might still happen.<br><br>But over the last 5 weeks, the authorities have come to <br>
realize that simply squeezing out power cuts is going to <br>have an extremely negative effect on national productivity <br>and could cause lasting damage to the nation's finances. <br>Instead, they have turned their focus on to TEPCO, <br>
pressuring the company to find a ways to increase power <br>generation to at least 50GW. As a result, TEPCO has <br>developed a Rube Goldberg plan that allows it to cobble <br>together a variety of old fossil fuel plants, mothballed <br>
hydro and geothermal plants, and simply buying in masses <br>of temporary oil/gas generators and fuel, so that they can <br>supply possibly 52GW or more by the end of July -- much <br>closer to the anticipated peak August needs of 55GW - 60GW.<br>
<br>Amongst the things TEPCO will do to achieve this <br>out-of-thin-air magic includes: a) pumping water upstream <br>of hydro dams in the off-peak hours (early morning hours) <br>so that the water can be reused to drive turbines the <br>
following day, b) re-starting furloughed nuclear generators<br>elsewhere in their network, and c) putting off maintenance <br>(although we are assured, not nuclear maintenance) to avoid<br>peak demand periods. At the same time, major manufacturers <br>
are thinking to move employee hours earlier in the day to <br>achieve a type of daylight savings, imposing longer summer <br>breaks, and dispatching employees to other parts of the <br>country.<br><br>Such measures are all well and good, but there is still <br>
going to be a gap come August, and what about winter and <br>next summer? The Fukushima reactors will be entombed, so<br>we can't expect any future power production from that <br>facility. <br><br>Surely there are some more meaningful/simpler ways to <br>
either reduce power consumption or increase its production?<br><br>[Continued below...]<br><br>--------- Tokyo's Fastest Growing Restaurant Guide --------<br><br><a href="http://www.metrodining.jp">www.metrodining.jp</a><br>
<br>If you like eating out and want to explore a little, or<br>help others to do so, then you need to try out the latest<br>Metropolis Magazine food application, Metrodining.jp. The<br>result of 2 years of development, the database already has<br>
600+ foreigner-friendly restaurants, and is adding 100+ a<br>week to the list. First in town to offer user rankings and<br>cell phone additions/comments.<br><br>Watch the site closely, because in the next few weeks we<br>
will offer rewards for people adding more comments and<br>establishments.<br><br>If you own and have an interest in a restaurant,<br>registering your operation is free of charge. For ad and<br>other enquiries, contact: <a href="mailto:sales@metroworks.jp">sales@metroworks.jp</a><br>
------------------------------------------------------------<br><br>[...Article continues]<br><br>We think that the government needs to show some Energy <br>leadership by setting some inviolable principles which will<br>guide them in action -- much the same as they used to hunt <br>
out surplus slush funds in the first two years of their term. <br><br>The first should be: "Electricity is the lifeblood of the <br>nation and its cheap, continuous availability needs to be <br>guaranteed". Another should be: "Irrational laws and pork <br>
barrel funding need to be put aside in the pursuit of <br>stable, safe electrical power generation." <br><br>Once those principles are committed to, there are plenty of<br>big, fat non-essential targets to root out. Here are just a<br>
few:<br><br>1. Pass a law to shut off power to all cooling/heating <br>circuits of all vending machines around the <br>Tokyo-thru-Tohoku region during the month of August. There <br>are supposedly 5.5m vending machines in Japan and between <br>
them they use at least 1200kWh/year x 5.5m = 6.6TWh a year.<br>Since most of the power is used for heating and cooling, we<br>can probably assume that 15% of this is used in August (and<br>in January next year). From what we can tell, about 1/3 of <br>
these machines are inside the TEPCO and Tohoku Electric <br>Power service areas, and of these a bit less than half are <br>drinks machines (according to the Nikkei, about 870,000 <br>units).<br><br>Therefore, around 160GW/hrs could potentially be saved in <br>
the electrical service area by turning them off just during<br>August. Since this law would not be about punishing the <br>vending companies, TEPCO would then compensate Coke, <br>Suntory, and others for staff and basic operations costs <br>
while on pause for that month. We appreciate that Coke and <br>others are already taking measures to turn off machine <br>cooling systems for a portion of the day during summer, <br>but this year, they should simply switch off completely and<br>
garner the PR of helping out Japan. John R. Harris has more<br>to say about this in his blog, <a href="http://bit.ly/ibHj1D">http://bit.ly/ibHj1D</a>.<br><br>2. Go after all major convenience and electrical store<br>chains, because they use lots of cooling/heating and <br>
lighting. We'd direct them to at least install LED lighting<br>in replacement of fluorescent tubes and incandescent bulbs,<br>and for the electrical stores to shut for 4 hours in the <br>afternoons during August. With a 3-month tax break or <br>
subsidies for these chains as well as other smaller store <br>operators, the government could easily force a mass <br>conversion to energy saving devices, and the beneficial <br>effects of such a move would last far beyond the coming <br>
summer. Indeed, such a mass changeover would bring down the<br>cost of these devices substantially, as well as providing a<br>massive boost for domestic electrical manufacturers.<br><br>The process of becoming more power efficient has in fact <br>
already begun with some forward-looking companies. <br>Seven/Eleven has said that it expects to save 125kWh a day <br>per store by changing to LED lighting and installing solar <br>cells on the roofs of 1,000 stores around the nation over <br>
the next few months. Now, if they were targeted to get <br>government help, then we imagine they could speed up their <br>program and do retrofits to all 6,000 stores in the TEPCO <br>service area, saving a massive 750MWh/day in power. Then, <br>
if you included all the other operators' 10,000 or so <br>convenience stores in the same region, the savings <br>could be increased to around 2GWh/day. Not a small sum... <br>and with massive benefits to the manufacturers of LED <br>
lighting and solar cell panels.<br><br>3. Speaking of solar cells, Japan churns out such large <br>amounts of photovoltaic panels that you have to scratch <br>your head as to why there isn't a crash program to increase<br>
production and purchase acres of them for installation into<br>North Eastern Japan. One possible reason, pointed out by <br>blogger/Market Entry specialist Tom Sato <br>(<a href="http://www.tomsato.jp/tomsato.html">http://www.tomsato.jp/tomsato.html</a>) is that there is no <br>
where to physically install the huge number of panels that <br>would be needed to replace a nuclear plant.<br><br>Actually, there is lots of vacant farm land, but the law <br>says it has to be used for farming. Tom points out that if <br>
the Central Union of Agricultural Cooperatives (Nokyo) was <br>allowed to get into the power generation business via <br>tenant "solar farmers" in return for supporting legislative<br>changes about land use, then suddenly TEPCO would have a <br>
major competitor and we the population would get a green<br>alternative energy source and a farming sector that could<br>be profitable again... This is a very cunning strategy and<br>one that would be politically acceptable.<br>
<br>4. Turn to the private power generation capabilities of JR <br>East and major manufacturing firms, and have them supply <br>the grid during non-peak hours. To some extent this already<br>happens, but it needs to be coordinated and purposeful. <br>
According to a report by Investment firm Martin Currie, the<br>energy production capability of JR East and other private <br>firms is about 30GW. Of course they need their daytime <br>production for themselves, but in the evenings and early <br>
mornings these facilities could be operated to reduce loads<br>on TEPCO resources -- maybe they could be used to pump that<br>water back up into the TEPCO hydro storage lake we were <br>talking about before.<br><br>5. Then there are many interesting opportunities to develop<br>
the nation's thermal resources. Given that volcanoes and <br>thermal hot spots are one of the few resources Japan has in<br>surplus, it is strange that government R&D spending for <br>geothermal power production has been zero since 2002, and <br>
yet in contrast, nuclear R&D receives JPY200bn a year. One <br>report from <a href="http://earthpolicy.org">earthpolicy.org</a> <br>(<a href="http://www.earth-policy.org/plan_b_updates/2011/update94">http://www.earth-policy.org/plan_b_updates/2011/update94</a>) <br>
reckons that Japan could with conventional technology <br>harvest about 80GW of geothermal power a year if it wanted <br>to.<br><br>What we hope, in any case, is that the Kan government <br>starts to realize that while certain vested interests have <br>
had the nation focus on nuclear energy, these heavily <br>populated and geologically unstable islands have to be the <br>worst place in the world to build nuclear power stations. <br>Instead, if they bite the bullet now and fund a build up <br>
of the installed user base of alternative energy, the <br>resulting technology and market advances would stand Japan <br>in good stead not only for energy independence, but also <br>to provide the production base necessary for Japanese <br>
exporters to lead the alternative energy field in the <br>future.<br><br>************<br><br>Lastly, there is a new Tokyo group of technologists with a <br>website called RDTN.org. Their purpose is to provide an <br>aggregate feed of nuclear radiation data from governmental,<br>
non-governmental and citizen-scientist sources. This data <br>will be made available to everyone, including scientists <br>and nuclear experts, who can provide context for lay <br>people. They are kicking their project off by creating a <br>
mobile radiation sensor system to measure the levels near <br>the schools in Fukushima. If this sounds interesting, then <br>you might want to help them out. They are looking for cars <br>and drivers to travel to Fukushima to take the readings in <br>
these areas. They also are looking for more funding. See <br>more about them at: <a href="http://kck.st/hMXtdM">http://kck.st/hMXtdM</a>.<br><br>Contact them at: Info@RDTN.org.<br><br><br>...The information janitors/<br><br>
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<br>+++ NEWS<br><br>- March trade earnings plunge massive 40%<br>- Overall foreign departures from Japan<br>- Tokyo tourism plunges<br>- Australia to supply some temporary housing<br>- Solar-powered water purification units<br>
<br><br>=> March trade earnings plunge massive 40%<br><br>Although the final numbers are not in yet, according to a <br>Quick Corporation study of economists, the expectation is <br>that March trade volumes fell by at least 40%, with one <br>
economist predicting an actual JPY96bn deficit. While <br>there is little consensus there will actually be a deficit <br>for March, there does seem to be a consensus already for <br>April -- yes, the nation will be in trade deficit. Official<br>
numbers will be out on Wednesday April 20th. (Source: TT <br>commentary from <a href="http://e.nikkei.com">e.nikkei.com</a>, Apr 16, 2011)<br><br><a href="http://e.nikkei.com/e/ac/tnks/Nni20110415D15JFA10.htm">http://e.nikkei.com/e/ac/tnks/Nni20110415D15JFA10.htm</a><br>
<br>=> Overall foreign departures from Japan<br><br>We reported several weeks ago that around 190,000 <br>non-Japanese left Narita between March 11 and 22, compared <br>with a normal number of around 22,000. Now the Justice <br>
Ministry is supplying more numbers. Officially, 531,000 <br>foreigners left Japan in the 4-week period March 12 through<br>April 8. Of course some of these were tourists and about <br>302,000 people had re-entry permits and so are more likely <br>
to represent temporary departees. At the same time, 302,000<br>foreigners entered Japan, which appears to be about 30% <br>less than normal, but in fact would have been even lower if<br>not for the arrival (we believe) of many people to help <br>
with the relief efforts. (Source: TT commentary from <br><a href="http://mainichi.jp">mainichi.jp</a>, Apr 16, 2011)<br><br><a href="http://mdn.mainichi.jp/mdnnews/news/20110416p2g00m0dm017000c.html">http://mdn.mainichi.jp/mdnnews/news/20110416p2g00m0dm017000c.html</a><br>
<br>=> Tokyo tourism plunges<br><br>Confirming the fact that tourists are avoiding Tokyo, a <br>Nikkei survey of major Tokyo hotels found that the average <br>occupancy rate during March was just 49.8%, and for the <br>
higher-end hotels such as the New Otani, the occupancy rate<br>was just 28.7%. Normally the occupancy at this time of <br>year, cherry blossom season after all, would be in the high<br>80's or above. (Source: TT commentary from <a href="http://nikkei.com">nikkei.com</a>, Apr <br>
16, 2011)<br><br><a href="http://e.nikkei.com/e/ac/tnks/Nni20110416D16EE269.htm">http://e.nikkei.com/e/ac/tnks/Nni20110416D16EE269.htm</a><br><br>=> Australia to supply some temporary housing<br><br>The Japanese embassy has asked Australian building firms to<br>
help in supplying some of the 30,000 temporary housing <br>units that Japan will build over the next few months. <br>Already building merchants, Carter Holt Harvey, and <br>remote-site prefab builder Nomad Housing have said that <br>
they will offer flat-pack timber-frame homes to Japan. <br>Apparently Japan will pay around JPY4.4m for a 30sq m home <br>expected to house two families... ***Ed: Whoa! That's <br>pretty darned small!** (Source: TT commentary from <br>
<a href="http://theaustralian.com.au">theaustralian.com.au</a>, Apr 16, 2011)<br><br><a href="http://bit.ly/gJ4BDZ">http://bit.ly/gJ4BDZ</a><br><br>=> Solar-powered water purification units<br><br>No word on whether this is just a goodwill gesture or not, <br>
but US company WorldWater & Solar Technologies has tied up <br>with Spain's Gamesa Corporación Tecnológica to ship two <br>solar-powered water purification systems to be installed <br>in several towns near in Fukushima. The units screen <br>
radiation and other pollutants and provide up to 110,000 <br>liters of fresh potable water daily. Each unit has its own <br>3.3kW solar cell array and thus needs no external power. <br>(Source: TT commentary from <a href="http://solarserver.com">solarserver.com</a>, Apr 16, 2011)<br>
<br><a href="http://bit.ly/f91ZjK">http://bit.ly/f91ZjK</a><br><br><br>NOTE: Broken links<br>Many online news sources remove their articles after just a<br>few days of posting them, thus breaking our links -- we<br>apologize for the inconvenience.<br>
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<br>+++ CANDIDATE ROUND UP/VACANCIES<br><br>=> BiOS, a Division of the LINC Media group, is actively<br>marketing the following positions for customers setting up<br>or expanding in Japan, as well as other employers of<br>
bilinguals.<br><br>** HIGHLIGHTED POSITION<br><br>BiOS is now urgently looking for On-site IT Support<br>Engineer with experience supporting our client’s internal<br>IT infrastructure at their office in the Shinagawa area.<br>
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environment, this position is suitable for someone with<br>solid experience supporting overall in-house IT<br>infrastructure including desktop support, and who has<br>strong knowledge of network (CCNA level preferred) and<br>
server administration. In addition, since this role<br>requires coordination between many different departments<br>(internal IT team, IT team from headquarters, vendors,<br>etc.), fluent communications skill in both English and<br>
Japanese is required.<br><br>Remuneration is JPY5m – JPY6.5m depending on your<br>experience and skill level.<br><br>** POSITIONS VACANT<br><br>- Account Manager, global IT co, JPY7m – JPY11m<br>- Junior Helpdesk Engineer, BiOS, JPY3m – JPY4m<br>
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carries a list of BiOS's current and most up-to-date<br>vacancies, with each entry featuring a short job<br>description and a direct link to the main entry on the BiOS<br>home page. Regardless of whether you are unemployed and<br>
searching, thinking about a career change, or just curious<br>to know if there is something out there that might suit you<br>better, the BiOS Job Mail newsletter is an easy and<br>convenient way for you to stay informed. If you would like<br>
to register for the BiOS Job Mail, or to find out more,<br>please email <a href="mailto:kenji.sakota@biosjp.com">kenji.sakota@biosjp.com</a>.<br><br>Interested individuals may e-mail resumes to:<br><a href="mailto:kenji.sakota@biosjp.com">kenji.sakota@biosjp.com</a>.<br>
<br>-----------------------------------------------------------<br><br>***------------------------****-------------------------***<br><br>+++ UPCOMING EVENTS/ANNOUNCEMENTS<br><br>------------- Entrepreneur Seminar in Tokyo ---------------<br>
<br>Start a Company in Japan<br>Entrepreneur's Handbook Seminar 23rd of April, 2011<br><br>If you have been considering setting up your own company,<br>find out what it takes to make it successful. Terrie Lloyd,<br>founder of over 13 start-up companies in Japan, will be<br>
giving an English-language seminar and Q and A on starting<br>up a company in Japan. Over 450 people have taken this<br>course so far.<br><br>This is an ideal opportunity to find out what is involved,<br>and to ask specific questions that are not normally answered<br>
in business books.<br>All materials are in English and are Japan-focused.<br><br>For more details:<br><a href="http://www.japaninc.com/entrepreneur_handbook_seminar">http://www.japaninc.com/entrepreneur_handbook_seminar</a><br>
-----------------------------------------------------------<br><br>------------------ ICA Event - April 21 -------------------<br><br>Speaker: Marc Einstein, Industry Manager - Frost & Sullivan<br>Title: APAC Mobile & Wireless Outlook in 2011<br>
<br>Details: Complete event details at <a href="http://www.icajapan.jp/">http://www.icajapan.jp/</a><br>(RSVP Required)<br><br>Date: Thursday, April 21, 2011<br>Time: 6:30 Doors open, Buffet Dinner included and cash bar<br>
Cost: 4,000 yen (members), 6,000 yen (non-members) Open to<br>all. Venue is The Foreign Correspondents' Club of Japan<br><br><a href="http://www.fccj.or.jp/aboutus/map">http://www.fccj.or.jp/aboutus/map</a><br>-----------------------------------------------------------<br>
<br><br>***------------------------****-------------------------***<br><br>+++ CORRECTIONS/FEEDBACK<br><br>In this section we run comments and corrections submitted<br>by readers. We encourage you to spot our mistakes and<br>
amplify our points, by email, to <a href="mailto:editors@terrie.com">editors@terrie.com</a>.<br><br>*** In TT608 we speculated on a power hit being the reason<br>that Toshiba will see its NAND RAM output drop up to 20%<br>
over the next few months, but as several readers kindly<br>pointed out the Yokkaichi plant is separated from the<br>disaster area electrically. We agree that this was a point<br>of dot-joining by us, and in fact the more likely reason<br>
for the drop in Toshiba output will be its Iwate packaging<br>plant being severely damaged...<br><br><a href="http://bit.ly/gEyZwU">http://bit.ly/gEyZwU</a><br><br>=> Reader:<br>Just to alert you to a possible error in your latest Take.<br>
You said, "Although the Toshiba plant is in Yokkaichi,<br>hundreds of kilometers to the south of the earthquake zone,<br>the momentary power outage when Fukushima Daiichi went off<br>line damaged sensitive equipment and Toshiba is saying that<br>
production will be affected for some time."<br><br>But in fact, as you will see from the following:<br><a href="http://bit.ly/125JiM">http://bit.ly/125JiM</a>, given that Fukushima is in the 50hz<br>zone and Yokkaichi is in the 60hz zone, a disruption in<br>
power supply in one zone should not affect the supply in<br>the other. While small volumes of electricity can be<br>shunted from one zone to the other, it has to be converted<br>and the conversion process itself should buffer any<br>
fluctuations in supply. Therefore it is very unlikely that<br>a power surge or outage in the eastern zone would have<br>caused a surge/outage in the western zone... but then again<br>I am not an electrical engineer!<br><br>
The irony is that the conversion capacity of the bridging<br>circuits between the two systems is quite low, hence the<br>challenge for eastern Japan in summer as not enough power<br>can be drawn or diverted from the west to compensate for<br>
the loss in generation capacity in the east. <br><br>***********************************************************<br>END<br><br>SUBSCRIBERS: 8,820 members as of April 17, 2011<br>(We purge our list regularly.)<br><br>+++ ABOUT US<br>
<br>STAFF<br>Written by: Terrie Lloyd (<a href="mailto:terrie.lloyd@japaninc.com">terrie.lloyd@japaninc.com</a>)<br><br>HELP: E-mail <a href="mailto:Terrie-request@mailman.japaninc.com">Terrie-request@mailman.japaninc.com</a><br>
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