* * * * * * * * * T E R R I E 'S T A K E * * * * * * *<br>A weekly roundup of news & information from Terrie Lloyd.<br>(<a href="http://www.terrie.com">http://www.terrie.com</a>)<br><br>General Edition Sunday, December 18, 2011, Issue No. 643<br>
<br>+++ INDEX<br><br>- What's New -- Nine Events That Defined Business in 2011<br>- News -- Tankan turns negative<br>- Candidate Roundup/Vacancies<br>- Upcoming Events<br>- Corrections/Feedback -- Dating paucity, a case of men or<br>
mice?<br>- News Credits<br><br>SUBSCRIBE to, UNSUBSCRIBE from Terrie's Take at:<br><a href="http://mailman.japaninc.com/mailman/listinfo/terrie">http://mailman.japaninc.com/mailman/listinfo/terrie</a><br><br>BACK ISSUES<br>
<a href="http://www.japaninc.com/terries_take">http://www.japaninc.com/terries_take</a>, or,<br><a href="http://mailman.japaninc.com/pipermail/terrie/">http://mailman.japaninc.com/pipermail/terrie/</a><br><br><br>--------- PBXL TOTAL TELEPHONY SOLUTION (TTS) -----------<br>
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<br>+++ WHAT'S NEW<br><br>One way to figure out likely trends in the future is to <br>study the past. Today we pick nine events that we think <br>have influenced Japan on a macro level and which will<br>have repercussions and benefits for Japan for years to <br>
come.<br><br>January -- Bahamas tax treaty signed<br><br>Japan marked an important move towards homologating its tax<br>and tax detection system with the rest of the world, by <br>signing a tax information treaty with the Bahamas, <br>
following on from similar agreements with the Caymans and <br>Bermuda. Probably the first real application of this type<br>of treaty will be the Olympus laundering of US$680m+ <br>through the Caymans in 2008. Should be interesting to see<br>
the evidence once this all goes to court. <br><br>As a counterpoint, even as this treaty was being signed, <br>giving the Tax Office much more power to track down illicit<br>money, a Supreme Court ruling found in favor of the son of <br>
money-lender Yasuo Takefuji, when it decided he would be<br>non-taxable for a 3-year period of residence in Hong Kong. <br>He was charged JPY133bn on gift taxes and penalties after <br>the Tax Office said he was living in HK just to dodge <br>
paying the taxes in Japan.<br><br>February -- India-Japan trade deal (a TPP precursor)<br><br>Japan is busy shoring up its non-China relations around <br>Asia, and next to China, the economy that really matters <br>for Japan is India. Thus the Comprehensive Economic <br>
Partnership Agreement (CEPA) signed in February was an <br>important breakthrough after 5 years of negotiations. For <br>India the agreement will open up the Japanese market for <br>generic drugs, software, and possibly agricultural items, <br>
while for Japan it opens up the financial services sector, <br>manufacturing, and construction. The deal will remove trade<br>tariffs on 94% of all goods over the next ten years, and is<br>expected to increase bilateral trade between the countries <br>
by as much as US$25bn, up from US$10.3bn presently. This <br>deal has been one of the turning points of acceptance by <br>the Japanese towards mutually beneficial trade agreements, <br>and bodes well for their participation in the upcoming TPP <br>
talks.<br><br>March -- Tohoku Earthquake<br><br>March 11th, 2011, will be etched in the memories of tens of<br>millions of people here in Japan and around the world, not<br>only for the horrific tsunami after a Magnitude 9.0 <br>
earthquake off the coast of Tohoku, which caused the deaths<br>of at least 19,000 (accounted for and missing), and damage<br>of around US$235bn (World Bank estimate). All we can say is <br>thank God it didn't hit Tokyo head on.<br>
<br>If you haven't been up to Tohoku to see the damage for <br>yourself, then you can see it here, on Google. Lots of <br>before and after imagery.<br><br><a href="http://www.miraikioku.com/streetview/en/?ll=38.419065,141.298584&h=74&p=-7&z=0">http://www.miraikioku.com/streetview/en/?ll=38.419065,141.298584&h=74&p=-7&z=0</a><br>
<br>While the direct damage caused by the tsunami has been <br>massive, the larger damage is likely to be the hits on the <br>economy caused by the resulting explosions and meltdowns of<br>reactors as the Daiichi power plant at Fukushima. Not only <br>
has the resulting radiation scare been almost solely <br>responsible for a 50% drop in tourism (US$130bn this year <br>alone), but the power shortages during summer and later <br>this winter, and the resulting drop in productivity that <br>
those will have caused. Both events will have a lasting <br>negative effect on the economy.<br><br>But there could well be a silver lining on this cloud, in <br>that the nuclear threat has made people much more aware of <br>
their health and their life priorities. Indeed, there has <br>been a remarkable increase in the number of people wanting <br>to start working the land as farmers -- so maybe the idea <br>that farming is dying out in Japan is not a given after <br>
all.<br><br>[Continued below...]<br><br>-- NAGAMINE & MISHIMA - Securing Your Success in Japan ---<br><br>Starting a new company in Japan? Looking to streamline<br>your current operations?<br><br>The team of bilingual experts at Nagamine & Mishima is able<br>
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<br>---------- YOUR BOTTOM LINE IS OUR TOP PRIORITY------------<br><br>[...Article continues]<br><br>June -- Tainted milk scandal and food safety<br><br>In the aftermath of Fukushima power plant explosions, not <br>much happened during April and early May. However, in late <br>
May and June, it became obvious that there was serious and <br>major fall-out of Cesium and (as we have more recently <br>found out), Neptunium-239 and other radioactive particles. <br>The cesium contamination was initially ignored by the <br>
authorities, then it was discovered after citizen-paid <br>radiation testing revealed that milk from Fukushima was <br>contaminated and the product was being distributed all<br>across the nation by being mixed with normal product from <br>
other regions. This created an uproar which continues <br>today. In July it emerged that the meat from at least 600 <br>cattle were also sold, although they were contaminated with<br>cesium above the government limits.<br>
<br>July -- AirAsia and ANA<br><br>Even without the earthquake, 2011 was shaping up to be a <br>miserable year for many Japanese workers, since their <br>factory jobs have been cut dramatically as local <br>manufacturing succumbs to price competition from Chinese <br>
exports. One of the few alternative industries that such <br>workers can move to is tourism -- especially since it is <br>service oriented and easy to "program". Of course the <br>radiation from the Daiichi power plant has scared away many,<br>
but we have a feeling that 2012 will be a much better year <br>as the clean up continues. <br><br>A major enabler to the recovery of tourism is the arrival <br>of Low-cost Carriers (LCC's), and Asia's largest operator,<br>
Malaysia's AirAsia, announced in July that it would tie-up <br>with ANA and start flying in 2013 in Japan. The company <br>plans to start operating domestic routes, and its CEO <br>mentioned a JPY2,500 air fare from Tokyo to Osaka as being <br>
a goal. AirAsia will shortly be joined by Jetstar, which <br>also intends to start flying domestic routes in 2012 and <br>internationally from Japan by 2013. <br><br>August -- Setsuden<br><br>Although just a memory now we're in the grip of winter, <br>
July-August were ugly months for most of the working <br>population of Japan. In the aftermath of the meltdowns at <br>Fukushima, many of Japan's other nuclear power plants have <br>also been closed down, reducing the nuclear contribution of<br>
30% of the nation's power to 1/3 of that amount. The way <br>the power reductions were achieved were through a <br>government campaign called "Setsuden" (Power Savings), <br>which set a target to reduce power consumption by as much <br>
as 20%. This involved requiring large companies to engage <br>in a variety of measures including working weekends and <br>4-day work weeks. As a result, many of us sweated away in <br>temperatures of 28 degrees or higher (depending on your <br>
proximity to a window).<br><br>Although there were no real mandatory targets for small <br>firms and households, everyone got the message, and by <br>individual and group action, the nation beat the power <br>savings targets by a wide margin. It was an amazing thing<br>
to see, and now (December 2011), although there are only 7 <br>of Japan's 54 reactors online, there are still no power <br>supply problems of note. That situation may change this <br>winter, but despite this possibility the government is <br>
requesting just a 10% savings target, showing how relaxed <br>they are about the situation. of course, we're not looking <br>forward to next summer. Something tells us that Setsuden is<br>here to stay for a while...!<br>
<br>October -- Olympus Scandal Breaks<br><br>We don't have much to say about Olympus that hasn't been <br>said already. The scandal broke early October, after the <br>Olympus board fired its first foreign president and CEO, <br>
Michael Woodford. They did so because he had the audacity <br>to demand the resignation of the Chairman who hired him, <br>Tsuyoshi Kikukawa, and other board members. It turns out <br>that shortly after becoming the president, Woodford found <br>
out that Olympus had paid huge and suspicious advisory fees<br>for its 2008 M&A of a British firm called Gyrus. In <br>addition, he uncovered almost a US$1bn of 2006-2007 asset <br>purchases which were quickly and quietly written off the <br>
following year, and which reportedly involved anti-social <br>elements.<br><br>The Olympus scandal has had major repercussions on the <br>reputation of Japanese firms vis-a-vis foreign <br>shareholders -- so much so that even the Japanese PM, <br>
Yoshihiko Noda, felt compelled to comment on the situation <br>and assure investors that Olympus is just a one-off case. <br>We're not so sure of that point, but at least the <br>government does seem serious about tightening up its <br>
hither-to lax M&A laws.<br><br>October was also a month in which Japan's one successful <br>software sector, that of online gaming, saw one of its <br>leaders make a smart and high-value purchase of a foreign <br>
competitor. DeNA paid US$400m for US-based iphone social <br>gaming firm Ngmoco. We see other online gaming firms <br>following in DeNA's footsteps, as online mobile gaming <br>sweeps the world in the next couple of years.<br>
<br>November -- Kirin Schincariol Group M&A<br><br>The year ends as it started, with a major Japanese M&A <br>hitting the headlines. One of the more active sectors has <br>been beverages, and Kirin announced in August that it was <br>
seeking to buy a controlling share of Brazilian drinks firm<br>Schincariol for JPY105bn. They didn't count on significant <br>domestic (Brazilian minor shareholder) objections to the <br>deal, though, and it took them another 3 months to make <br>
things stick. Kirin will now control 11% of the Brazilian <br>beverages market, as Schincariol is that nation's second <br>largest beverages firm. Kirin is betting that its expertise<br>in premium drinks and non-alcoholic drinks will allow it to<br>
compete and take market share from the leader in the <br>market, AmBev.<br><br>[Continued below...]<br><br>----------------- DESPERATELY SEEKING DONORS ---------------<br><br>CASH AND BONE MARROW DONORS NEEDED<br><br>Aidan, a British resident in Japan, needs a bone marrow<br>
transplant. It’s his only hope of beating leukemia.<br>Because of his ethnicity, no donors were found in Japan.<br>He is no longer eligible for UK treatment. Only a worldwide<br>search, not covered by Japanese National Health Insurance,<br>
offers hope.<br><br>Aidan needs at least JPY3,500,000. He has been unable to work<br>and without income since February 2011.<br><br>Please donate what you can.<br>Please become a bone marrow donor.<br>You could save a life.<br>
Please spread the word.<br>Please visit: <a href="http://saveaidan.org/">http://saveaidan.org/</a><br>-----------------------------------------------------------<br><br>[...Article continues]<br><br>What makes this a stand-out event for us for 2011 is that <br>
Kirin has been engaged in a series of rapid-fire <br>acquisitions over the last 3 years, and has had enough time<br>to see some of its deals "go south", requiring repair and <br>change of control. This has been the case with Kirin's Lion <br>
Nathan acquisition from 2007, which apparently is not going<br>so well. The company is now being tested as to its ability <br>to work on a global level to actively manage and drive <br>its empire. If it succeeds, then it can look with <br>
confidence to pulling off more M&As next year on the back <br>of the high yen, and move up the ranks of major global <br>players. Currently it is the 14th largest food and beverage<br>firm in the world, after Heineken.<br>
<br>**************<br><br>Thanks for reading Terrie's Take for 2011. This has been a<br>really special year for us, as we reinvented ourselves <br>after the earthquake and the succeeding slump in the <br>economy. Our group of media businesses took particularly <br>
hard knocks due to the fact that some of our clients and <br>readers were amongst those choosing to leave Japan after <br>the quake. We're happy to say, though, that the exodus <br>seems to have leveled out and we look forward to 2012 <br>
being a year of recovery.<br><br>One of our strategies for next year is to help Japan <br>recover as a place to live and do business for foreigners, <br>by launching new businesses in online travel and real <br>estate. Readers will already know that we launched <br>
<a href="http://www.japantourist.jp">www.japantourist.jp</a> at the beginning of November, and <br>already we are getting great traction -- as evidenced by<br>10-15 new contributors a week signing up to help us <br>document just what a great place Japan is to visit and<br>
live in. At this rate, we expect that Japantourist.jp <br>will become Japan's largest commercial English-language <br>travel website by volume (of content) by February next <br>year. You can help us achieve that goal by visiting the <br>
site, "liking" it on Facebook (you'll see the "like" <br>button in the top right hand corner) -- and thus spreading <br>awareness of the site. It's easy to do...<br><br><a href="http://www.japantourist.jp">www.japantourist.jp</a><br>
<br>Our real estate website, <a href="http://www.metrohomes.jp">www.metrohomes.jp</a>, should also <br>be up and running early this coming week. We had intended <br>to launch this last week, but with 10,000+ listings on the <br>
site from a number of partners, there are lots of moving <br>parts to coordinate, and we want to make sure that we get <br>it right.<br><br>This is our last posting for this year, and we will take <br>two of our four weeks off a year, to enjoy a bit of time <br>
with the family. We will be back in your mail box on <br>January 8th, 2012. Merry Christmas everyone, and if you <br>don't celebrate Christmas, well then, Happy Holidays and <br>New Year...!<br><br>Oh, and be sure to look at the reader theory at the bottom<br>
of this issue, as to why there are so many Japanese without<br>partners. Hint: relates to an interesting mouse experiment.<br><br><br>...The information janitors/<br><br>***------------------------****-------------------------***<br>
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-----------------------------------------------------------<br><br><br>+++ NEWS<br><br>- Talent agency looks to go private again<br>- Fujifilm to buy US ultrasound company<br>- Data shows 48% drop in rents since 2008<br>- Young Japanese don't trust officials or media<br>
- Tankan survey turns negative<br><br><br>-> Talent agency looks to go private again<br><br>Japan's leading talent agency, Horipro has announced that <br>management will try to buyout the business and take the <br>
company private. In an interesting interview with the <br>Nikkei, the company, which manages many of the nation's <br>leading acts, says that because of the declining domestic <br>market it has little option but to go abroad for future <br>
growth -- and that this will require some tough investment <br>decisions that investors may not like. ***Ed: The fact is <br>that some companies are just not made for public listing, <br>and talent agencies are probably one of them. The nature of<br>
the business means that they suffer in slow markets and <br>make prodigious amounts of money in heated ones -- not the <br>steady returns that most investors are looking for.** <br>(Source: TT commentary from <a href="http://e.nikkei.com">e.nikkei.com</a>, Dec 16, 2011)<br>
<br><a href="http://e.nikkei.com/e/ac/tnks/Nni20111217D1612A18.htm">http://e.nikkei.com/e/ac/tnks/Nni20111217D1612A18.htm</a><br><br>-> Fujifilm to buy US ultrasound company<br><br>Imaging company Fujifilm Holdings says that it will buy US <br>
portable ultrasound devices maker SonoSite, for US$995m, a <br>massive 99 times the US firm's earnings last year. Despite <br>the huge price, Fujifilm obviously feels that SonoSite's <br>ultrasound customer network in over 100 countries globally <br>
(for a 37% overall market share) makes the purchase <br>worthwhile. ***Ed: Maybe they have a lot of patents?** <br>(Source: TT commentary from <a href="http://bloomberg.com">bloomberg.com</a>, Dec 15, 2011)<br><br><a href="http://bloom.bg/v2ABmO">http://bloom.bg/v2ABmO</a><br>
<br>-> Data shows 48% drop in rents since 2008<br><br>If proof was needed that office rents are getting cheaper, <br>a report released by Sanko Estate should provide it. The <br>firm says that Shinjuku rents have fallen by a massive 48% <br>
since January 2008, and those in Shibuya by 45%. The average<br>rent in Shinjuku at the end of November 2011 was <br>JPY16,356/tsubo (3.3 sq. m.). Rents in Chiyoda-ku have <br>fallen by 34% and in Minato-ku by 31%. The data also shows <br>
that vacancy rates rose by 0.03%, to 5.75%, a return to the<br>trend of increasing vacancies. ***Ed: Our guess is that <br>this situation will persist into 2012, as export firms (the<br>only ones with money to invest at present) wait and see <br>
what happens to the Eurozone crisis before embarking on any<br>more manpower in Tokyo.** (Source: TT commentary from <br><a href="http://e.nikkei.com">e.nikkei.com</a>, Dec 17, 2011)<br><br><a href="http://e.nikkei.com/e/ac/tnks/Nni20111216D1612N03.htm">http://e.nikkei.com/e/ac/tnks/Nni20111216D1612N03.htm</a><br>
<br>-> Young Japanese don't trust officials or media<br><br>An article on the LA Times posits that when it comes to <br>radiation information, young Japanese are turning away from<br>official announcements and traditional media and placing <br>
their trust in Internet blogs and web-based news channels. <br>The paper points out that an online news show called Our <br>Planet TV was one of the first to question the real <br>situation with radiation contamination about the Fukushima <br>
power plant, and with days its registered audience soared <br>from just 1,000 people to over 100,000. Likewise, a Tokyo <br>University blogger saw his Twitter following jump from <br>3,000 to 150,000 after he started tweeting foreign news <br>
reports about radiation from Fukushima. ***Ed: Certainly <br>people don't trust government sources for good reason -- <br>almost every week there is evidence of a cover-up or at <br>best "Paternal information restrictions" from one <br>
government agency or another. This week it is the refusal <br>of the board governing school lunches in greater Tokyo <br>refusing to release radiation readings for milk <br>distributed with the lunches -- which the kids are <br>
forced to consume...!** (Source: TT commentary from LA <br>Times, Dec 18, 2011)<br><br><a href="http://lat.ms/tobjQv">http://lat.ms/tobjQv</a><br><br>-> Tankan survey turns negative<br><br>Large manufacturers appear to have become pessimistic about<br>
the direction of the economy over the next quarter, as the <br>Bank of Japan's Tankan survey shows a score of -4, versus a<br>score of +2 in September. Analysts say that the main <br>reasons for the pessimism are the high yen and the European<br>
debt crisis. The survey is taken amongst 4,000 large firms,<br>most of whom are involved in export or operating <br>international businesses and which are sensitive to the <br>high yen. ***Ed: The feeling amongst many senior managers <br>
is that if the Eurozone crisis gets out of hand, this will <br>have a big knock-on effect on the USA, and that will <br>directly impact Japan, which otherwise has limited exposure<br>to Europe.** (Source: TT commentary from <a href="http://ft.com">ft.com</a>, Dec 15, <br>
2011)<br><br><a href="http://on.ft.com/v83Yiv">http://on.ft.com/v83Yiv</a><br><br><br>NOTE: Broken links<br>Many online news sources remove their articles after just a<br>few days of posting them, thus breaking our links -- we<br>
apologize for the inconvenience.<br><br>***------------------------****-------------------------***<br><br>+++ CANDIDATE ROUND UP/VACANCIES<br><br>=> BiOS, a Division of the LINC Media group, is actively<br>marketing the following positions for customers setting up<br>
or expanding in Japan, as well as other employers of<br>bilinguals.<br><br>** HIGHLIGHTED POSITION<br><br>BiOS is urgently looking for a Project Manager with <br>experience in managing a technical engineering team of <br>
network system engineers, as well as undertaking design<br>and architecting work at our client’s office in the Osaka <br>area. The candidate will be responsible for managing <br>accounts of the client for network and voice communications<br>
services, proposing project scopes, updating progress, <br>explaining new services, etc., as well as communicating <br>with the internal technical team so that they can provide <br>the technical services thus gleaned from the clients.<br>
<br>You will also be responsible for creating and managing <br>documents about the projects that need to be presented to <br>C-level management.<br><br>Due to the technical nature and demanding work environment,<br>this position is suitable for someone with solid experience<br>
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<br>Interested individuals may e-mail resumes to:<br><a href="mailto:tomohiro.kimura@biosjp.com">tomohiro.kimura@biosjp.com</a><br><br>** BiOS Job Mail<br><br>Every 2 weeks BiOS sends out a regular communication to its<br>
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Web: <a href="http://www.biosjp.com">www.biosjp.com</a><br>-----------------------------------------------------------<br><br>***------------------------****-------------------------***<br><br>+++ UPCOMING EVENTS/ANNOUNCEMENTS<br>
<br>No events for this week.<br><br>***------------------------****-------------------------***<br><br>+++ CORRECTIONS/FEEDBACK<br><br>In this section we run comments and corrections submitted<br>by readers. We encourage you to spot our mistakes and<br>
amplify our points, by email, to <a href="mailto:editors@terrie.com">editors@terrie.com</a>.<br><br>*** In TT641 we delved into possible reasons for the <br>Japanese permanent singles rate increasing as it has.<br>This reader has a completely novel and compelling reason <br>
for the emergence of male "herbivores" in Japan.<br><br>=> Reader comments: <br><br>This is in response to your interesting article in TT 641 <br>about the current aversion of so many Japanese to dating <br>and mating. Without a doubt, there are an abundance of <br>
reasons for this, many of them interlocking and reinforcing<br>each other, thus making it difficult or impossible to <br>establish relative importance or even cause from effect. <br>However, here is a theory for you: whatever the <br>
explanations, they are all proximate reasons. In other <br>words, they are simply manifestations of a deeper, or <br>"ultimate" reason. And this reason or explanation is <br>simple: Japan has too many people.<br>
<br>Japan's population was perfectly stable, there therefore by<br>definition sustainable given its complete isolation, for <br>the roughly 300 years of the Edo Period. However, at about <br>30 million over these centuries, this was still a high <br>
density by any standard then or since. By way of <br>comparison, Japan today has 336 people per square <br>kilometer. Since its population now is four times that of <br>the Edo period, during the Edo period Japan's density was <br>
about 84. The world average TODAY is around<br>50 (meaning that the world average until about 100 years <br>ago, when the population began to explode, was <br>approximately 12). Compared with Japan's current 336, <br>
density today is 32 in the U.S., 21 in Sweden, and 3 in <br>Canada and Australia.<br><br>One of the most enduring if not endearing lessons of <br>modern biology is the late 1960's experiment with a <br>"utopian" mouse population. Summary courtesy of Wiki: "Four<br>
pairs of mice were given unlimited food, water, and nesting<br>material. There were no predators. The only limit was <br>space. The population grew rapidly, doubling every 55 days, <br>reaching 620 by Day 315. Then population growth dropped <br>
markedly. Between Day 315 and Day 600 was a breakdown in <br>social behavior. The last surviving birth was on Day 600. <br>Changes in behavior included the inability of dominant <br>males to maintain defense of territory and females, <br>
aggressive behavior of females, and passivity of <br>non-dominant males. After Day 600 the females<br>ceased to reproduce, and their male counterparts withdrew <br>completely, never engaging in courtship. They ate, drank, <br>
slept, and groomed themselves - all solitary pursuits. <br>Sleek, healthy coats and an absence of scars characterized <br>these males. They were dubbed 'the beautiful ones'."<br><br>Thumbs up if you are in Japan and any of this sounds <br>
familiar.<br><br>Growing up in the U.S., I remember a TV commercial with the<br>punchline: "It's not nice to fool Mother Nature." Just <br>maybe, there is a natural maximum population that a <br>society, area, country, or planet can tolerate before <br>
Mother Nature whips out the ruler. Our planet, with Japan <br>an example, may be automatically enforcing a return to more<br>sustainable levels of population using methods and <br>mechanisms that are too subtle or complex for humans to <br>
understand -- at least for now. If so, maybe we should <br>accept or even embrace the changes; I'd bet money that <br>Mother Nature keeps killer epidemics in her bag of tricks <br>-- lest we forget, the Black Death in the 14th century <br>
killed an estimated one-third of the entire human <br>population from India to Iceland. Compared to that, more <br>aggressive females and non-dominant males eating, drinking,<br>sleeping, and grooming themselves in solitary doesn't seem <br>
quite so bad. <br><br>***********************************************************<br>END<br><br>SUBSCRIBERS: 8,328 members as of Dec 18, 2011<br>(We purge our list regularly.)<br><br>+++ ABOUT US<br><br>STAFF<br>Written by: Terrie Lloyd (<a href="mailto:terrie.lloyd@japaninc.com">terrie.lloyd@japaninc.com</a>)<br>
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