* * * * * * * * * T E R R I E 'S T A K E * * * * * * *<br>A weekly roundup of news & information from Terrie Lloyd.<br>(<a href="http://www.terrie.com">http://www.terrie.com</a>)<br><br>General Edition Sunday, January 08, 2012, Issue No. 644<br>
<br>+++ INDEX<br><br>- What's New -- Predictions for 2012<br>- News -- Japan secures LNG supply<br>- Candidate Roundup/Vacancies<br>- Upcoming Events<br>- Corrections/Feedback -- More on birthrate problem<br>- News Credits<br>
<br>SUBSCRIBE to, UNSUBSCRIBE from Terrie's Take at:<br><a href="http://mailman.japaninc.com/mailman/listinfo/terrie">http://mailman.japaninc.com/mailman/listinfo/terrie</a><br><br>BACK ISSUES<br><a href="http://www.japaninc.com/terries_take">http://www.japaninc.com/terries_take</a>, or,<br>
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e-mail us at <a href="mailto:info@pbxl.jp">info@pbxl.jp</a> or call us at 03-4550-2557<br><br>----------- PBXL is BUSINESS COMMUNICATIONS --------------<br><br>+++ WHAT'S NEW<br><br>Welcome back to Terrie's Take for 2012, our 15th year of <br>
publishing -- seems like just yesterday when we sent the <br>first one out. Per "tradition", we make some predictions <br>about what we think will happen on a macro level here in <br>Japan or globally that will affect Japan. <br>
<br>Overall, we think that 2012 will be a year that emphasizes <br>to the world that Japan is not a basket case, but in fact <br>as a global trader, investor, and innovator, is able to <br>keep its collective head above the choppy waters <br>
confronting some other economies.<br><br>****************<br><br>1. Baby Boomer Retirements Take Effect<br><br>Do you remember back in 2005 everyone talking about the <br>"Dankai" generation, where 6.7m baby boomers would retire <br>
and cause all kinds of havoc both in the employment and <br>investment sectors? Employment was a concern because <br>that number is 10% of Japan's skilled work force retiring in <br>a 3-year timeframe, and investment because these people <br>
were due to get massive retirement payouts, but how would<br>they spend the? Well, it didn't happen, largely due to a <br>2006 labor law change which raised the retirement age in <br>private companies to 65. However, we're now 5 years further<br>
on, and the first of the Dankai generation really will start <br>retiring this year. <br><br>The impact on the economy should be highly beneficial, <br>since indeed, the retirement bonuses these millions will <br>receive will be plowed into various long-term <br>
income-yielding investments. "Income" is the operative<br>word and is why domestic real estate and foreign <br>investment funds will continue to be popular. We predict, <br>too, that there will be a surge in high-end digital <br>
cameras, as the wives kick their hitherto unseen <br>newly-retired hubbies out the door! Buy Nikon shares.<br><br>2. Iran Conflict and Oil Prices<br><br>With all the focus by the media on natural disasters and <br>the Eurozone, it's easy to forget other potential disasters<br>
waiting just around the corner. Iran announced at the <br>beginning of the year that it has produced its first <br>nuclear fuel rod. That is double speak for "we have <br>fuel for a plutonium bomb". We think it is only a matter of<br>
time before Israel and/or the USA is forced into a direct <br>confrontation with Iran over their nuclear technology. <br>Until now we've heard of viruses, scientist assassinations, <br>and facility bombings -- but the Iranian authorities are <br>
determined to have their bomb and have diversified their <br>resources sufficiently that they are still able to produce <br>fissionable material.<br><br>Our guess is that there will be a massive air strike <br>against Iran later this year, and this will either be <br>
successful, with both the nuclear facilities and the senior<br>leadership being removed -- or it will rouse a hornet's <br>nest. The risks are huge, but not to take action is <br>probably going to be worse.<br><br>The net effect of any confrontation will be that supplies <br>
of oil from that area will dry up for a while, and the <br>world will be forced into shortages once again. Oil prices <br>will sky rocket and here in Japan we will probably wind up<br>having power cuts since almost no nuclear power means that <br>
most power these days is coming from oil-fired generators. <br>As a result, the government to "temporarily" back track on <br>the shutting of nuclear power stations. Buy Nissan and GS <br>Yuasa shares.<br><br>[Continued below...]<br>
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<br>---------- YOUR BOTTOM LINE IS OUR TOP PRIORITY------------<br><br>[...Article continues]<br><br>3. Yen Strength to Continue<br><br>If there isn't a Middle East crisis, though, then we see <br>nothing to cause the Yen to fall much beyond where it is <br>
today. The simple fact is that Japan still has plenty of <br>cash to cover its public deficit spending and it is <br>otherwise stable in an unstable world. In particular, we <br>feel particularly sorry for major firms in the US and <br>
Europe who are being loaded up with all kinds of tax, <br>environmental, and other regulations. Japan is known as a <br>highly regulated business environment, but in fact it <br>basically leaves its major companies alone, preferring <br>
instead to let private industry find its own way forward.<br>That's why corporate governance can be such a problem<br>here.<br><br>In terms of public spending, if the Consumption Tax rises <br>to 10%, as the DPJ is determined to do, then the country <br>
can run at least another 10 years at the current negative <br>income levels -- plenty of time for the next economic cycle<br>to roll around. The supposed "rebellion" by internal DPJ <br>factions and the opposition LDP over consumption tax is, we<br>
think, just posturing, and that in the end PM Noda and the <br>DPJ will get their way.<br><br>Actually, if the Consumption Tax rose to 17%-20%, then the <br>resulting income would effectively cover all the <br>government's foreseeable commitments, and leave the <br>
governemnt in a basic state of fiscal balance. Yes, there <br>would be a disruption to domestic GDP as people got used <br>to each tax increase, but as has been proven overseas, the <br>general public quickly adjusts to the higher goods and <br>
services taxes and gets on with living. So there is plenty of <br>wiggle room for Japan yet. Hold yen assets.<br><br>4. M&A Continues Apace<br><br>It's pretty obvious by now that cash flow-rich acquisitions<br>abroad are within the sights of most well-run Japanese <br>
firms, and with the soft money now available for such <br>transactions, are an easy way of dodging the shrinking <br>domestic economy bullet. Indeed, Japanese M&A of foreign <br>firms rose more than 100% over 2010, to US$86bn. At the same<br>
time, domestic deals were worth US$125bn, up 28%. By any <br>measure these numbers comprise a frothy market for <br>takeovers, and we can't see this ending in 2012. This is <br>great news for international law and accounting firms.<br>
<br>Indeed, we predict stronger action by smaller and mid-size <br>firms, who may not being doing billion dollar deals, but <br>whose actions will be far-reaching in terms of the jobs <br>market and Japan's connectedness with the outside world. <br>
Currently there are two formats for post-merger operations:<br>a) let the acquired company management continue running the<br>business, thus saving the need for a whole cadre of <br>bilingual trusted Japanese overseers, or, b) put someone <br>
from Tokyo in charge. <br><br>Both modes of operation offer strong opportunities for <br>those of us servicing the international market, whether in <br>recruiting, training, IT, or other sectors. The key is <br>"bilingual". Because of this, we think that the English <br>
language teaching sector will experience a resurgence of <br>popularity, and there will be the signs of a recovery in <br>the number of young Japanese studying abroad. It would help<br>if the Japanese government offered some kind of <br>
study-abroad student loans, and we wouldn't be surprised if<br>something like this emerges. Buy small-cap pharmaceutical <br>stocks expressing an interest in foreign M&A.<br><br>5. More Radioactivity Scares<br><br>
One thing you can be sure of with the Fukushima Daiichi <br>power plant is that we haven't heard the last of the <br>accident nor its consequences. In December, TEPCO blithely <br>announced that they had achieved cold shut down of the No. <br>
1, 2, and 3 reactors, and that they were stable. There was <br>a collective breath of relief by the public, and TEPCO said<br>it was moving to the "next stage of maintaining the safety <br>of the plant". <br><br>
The problem is that there is a continual flow of <br>inconvenient news about fresh high readings of Cesium-137 <br>and Iodine-131 in the soils and groundwaters around Fukushima.<br>Those of us learning about nuclear materials over the last 9 <br>
months will know that you're not supposed to see increasing<br>levels of such materials, because they have a relatively short <br>half life and should have largely cleared from the <br>Fukushima biosystem by now. But instead, a report from MEXT<br>
as recently as December 26th said that well water surveys <br>done in October resulted in 11.4l/kg-14.7l/kg of cesium <br>being found in in 3 locations. At the same time, in <br>Shinchi, near Soma City, the Fukushima Prefectural <br>
government reported finding 15Bq/kg of Iodine-131 in well <br>water on December 21st.<br><br>So something is going on... Internet comments are that at <br>least one of the reactor's coriums has probably melted clean<br>
through the containment vessel and is now percolating in <br>the earth under the power station. If that's the case, then<br>we can assume that the groundwater all around Fukushima is <br>becoming poisonous. Not good. Buy CocaCola and other <br>
bottled water producer shares.<br><br>6. La Nina Weather Disruptions<br><br>With the occurrence of the 3/11 earthquake and tsunami, it <br>was easy to miss the other natural disasters that happened <br>here in Japan and elsewhere in the world. It is clear <br>
that we had a particularly bad year for weather in 2011, <br>with severe droughts in China and the USA and <br>record-breaking flooding in Pakistan, Thailand, <br>Philippines, Australia, and South America. These events <br>
have been laid at the feet of the La Nina cycle, which in<br>spring and fall creates colder weather and generally drier <br>conditions in the Northern Hemisphere and generally <br>wetter conditions in the South.<br><br>Apparently late 2011 was the peak of La Nina, and is <br>
expected to run another 4-6 months. So we will probably see<br>a relatively dry winter, and an early start to spring. More<br>importantly, though, the areas that have been affected by <br>La Nina include major crop/livestock export regions in the <br>
USA and elsewhere, and the general expectation is that <br>there will be a shortage of soybeans, cereals, livestock, <br>and other foods. We can therefore expect prices to rise <br>again, and for there to be substantial competition amongst <br>
the food importing nations of the world, of which Japan is <br>the largest. We'd stock up on flour, frozen meat, and other<br>foreign-sourced staples, at least through to mid-2012. Some<br>extra cans of sardines or tuna in the cupboard won't go <br>
astray, either. Buy Kirin, Asahi, and other Japanese food <br>shares.<br><br>****************<br><br>Lastly, one of the major events of last year was Olympus <br>scandal and how it highlighted the need for Japan to get <br>
serious about corporate governance. If you scroll further <br>down this newsletter, you will find a short ad appealing <br>for donors to the "Board Director Training Institute of <br>Japan" (BDTI). This organization is run by a group of <br>
prominent local foreign and Japanese business people and <br>has the express purpose of improving corporate governance <br>through education and certification. We wholly support it. <br>BDTI is trying to get a special tax status as an NPO, and <br>
needs a certain number of genuine donations to achieve this<br>status. We already donated JPY3,000 -- a painless <br>procedure, and encourage readers to do the same. This is <br>one organization that will produce real benefits for Japan <br>
as the concept takes hold.<br><br><br>...The information janitors/<br><br>***------------------------****-------------------------***<br><br>--------------------- Delta Air Lines ---------------------<br><br>Redeem your miles and enjoy more travels<br>
<br>Celebrate the New Year with SkyMiles!<br>Register to Delta SkyMiles co-branded credit card and enjoy<br>three exclusive benefits for you to use your miles such as<br>JTB travel voucher, domestic flights within Japan on <br>
Skymark, or ‘Pay with Miles’ program.<br><br>Please visit <a href="http://delta.com">delta.com</a> for more details.<br>-----------------------------------------------------------<br><br>+++ NEWS<br><br>- Japan secures LNG supply<br>
- Double murder in Tokyo exposes extradition issues<br>- Panasonic home vege grower on sale<br>- Domestic outsourcing market consolidating<br>- Nexon IPO misfires<br><br><br>-> Japan secures LNG supply<br><br>According to sources quoted by the Yomiuri Shimbun, <br>
Russia's Gazprom and a Japanese consortium that includes <br>Itochu, JAPEX, and others, have reached agreement to build <br>a huge LNG plant in Vladivostok. The plant will require a <br>JPY1trn investment and should start producing in 2020. It <br>
is expected to produce 10m tons of LNG annually, about 14% <br>of Japan's yearly requirement. ***Ed: Japan made the right <br>call about 15 years ago in deciding to bet on LNG, and now <br>with so much of their infrastructure set up for it, they <br>
are taking appropriate steps in Australia, the Middle East,<br>and now Russia, to ensure steady and redundant supply <br>lines. Strategic planning at its best.** (Source: TT <br>commentary from <a href="http://yomiuri.co.jp">yomiuri.co.jp</a>, Jan 7, 2012)<br>
<br><a href="http://bit.ly/ya9AiC">http://bit.ly/ya9AiC</a> <br><br>-> Double murder in Tokyo exposes extradition issues<br><br>A double murder of two Taiwanese female students by a third<br>Taiwanese male student, who is still on the run, exposes <br>
the fact that there is still no extradition treaty between <br>Japan and Taiwan, meaning that any punishment will be meted<br>out per Japanese standards only. The murders were extremely<br>violent and the police say they are assigning 70 people to <br>
the case. They will be particularly eager to catch him, <br>especially since they nabbed the wrong guy yesterday. ***Ed: <br>We find it surprising that there still no extradition arrangement <br>between Taiwan and Japan given the amity between the two <br>
countries. Yes, Japan may not be able to officially <br>recognize Taiwan, but surely there must be some kind of <br>semi-official means of creating an accord? That said, the <br>perp will probably get equally harsh treatment here in <br>
Japan anyhow, so maybe there is no need for extradition<br>in the first place.** (Source: TT commentary from <br><a href="http://asiaone.com">asiaone.com</a>, Jan 7, 2012)<br><br><a href="http://bit.ly/AgZG5W">http://bit.ly/AgZG5W</a> <br>
<br>-> Panasonic home vege grower on sale<br><br>Panasonic is releasing a new vege growing system that can <br>be installed in apartment kitchens and grow things <br>year-round. What's great about the system, apart from its <br>
built in "sunshine" -- LEDs, is that it connects sensors to<br>the Internet and sends alerts when water and nutrient <br>levels are falling. ***Ed: For plant klutzes like your's <br>truly, this is great. The only problem is the price, they <br>
are asking JPY600,000... Think we'll wait for the Korean <br>version to show up a year or two from now for JPY40,000. <br>Also, it will be interesting to see if the Police start <br>trying to subpoena customers' growing data from Panasonic, <br>
for certain "herbal" prosecutions...** (Source: TT <br>commentary from <a href="http://e.nikkei.com">e.nikkei.com</a>, Jan 7, 2012)<br><br><a href="http://e.nikkei.com/e/ac/tnks/Nni20120106D0601A08.htm">http://e.nikkei.com/e/ac/tnks/Nni20120106D0601A08.htm</a><br>
<br>-> Domestic outsourcing market consolidating<br><br>A wave of consolidation in the Japanese outsourcing market <br>is going on, as highlighted by Friday's announcement that <br>Pasona Group will buy out Caplan Corp from trading house <br>
Itochu. The Nikkei speculated that the buy-out price for <br>the JPY15bn (FY2010 revenues) company will be around <br>JPY2bn -- your standard 1.5x likely EBIT. The purchase <br>gives Pasona access to Japan Airlines as an account as well<br>
as Caplan's in-house training for specialty assignments. <br>***Ed: The domestic market is contracting for just about <br>all sectors of outsourcing, so one presumes that Pasona is <br>taking a bet that having come this far, the Japanese <br>
government is not going to let JAL go out of business any <br>time soon, thus giving them a long-term customer.** <br>(Source: TT commentary from <a href="http://e.nikkei.com">e.nikkei.com</a>, Jan 7, 2012)<br><br><a href="http://e.nikkei.com/e/ac/tnks/Nni20120106D0601N02.htm">http://e.nikkei.com/e/ac/tnks/Nni20120106D0601N02.htm</a><br>
<br>-> Nexon IPO misfires<br><br>A little old as news, but interesting none-the-less, the <br>Japanese maker of Facebook games, Nexon, had a <br>disappointing debut on the share market and this probably <br>served as notice for investors in the Zynga IPO in the USA <br>
the next day. The company's stock fell 2.3% in the first <br>day, and as of Friday was down a full 13%, coincidentally <br>about the same as Zynga was in the US. The fall of the <br>stock price of both companies marks the realization by <br>
investors that companies with businesses reliant on the <br>goodwill of another (Facebook) for their survival and <br>profitability, are probably not such a good bet.** (Source:<br>TT commentary from <a href="http://bloomberg.net">bloomberg.net</a>, Dec 14, 2011)<br>
<br><a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/3659:JP/news">http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/3659:JP/news</a><br><br><br>NOTE: Broken links<br>Many online news sources remove their articles after just a<br>few days of posting them, thus breaking our links -- we<br>
apologize for the inconvenience.<br><br>***------------------------****-------------------------***<br><br>----------- Changing Japan's Corporate Governance ---------<br><br>If there ever was a time to support for the improvement of <br>
corporate governance in Japan, now is it. The Board<br>Director Training Institute of Japan (BDTI) needs only 80 <br>more donations of 3,000 Yen each in order to qualify for <br>special “turbo-charged” tax treatment. If it can qualify, <br>
BDTI will get greater visibility, and donors in the next <br>five years will receive approximately double the tax <br>benefits they now receive. Please help!<br><br>Inquiries: <a href="mailto:info@bdti.or.jp">info@bdti.or.jp</a><br>
<a href="http://bdti.or.jp/english/home">http://bdti.or.jp/english/home</a><br><a href="http://bdti.or.jp/english/introduction">http://bdti.or.jp/english/introduction</a><br>--------------------------------------------------------------<br>
<br>+++ CANDIDATE ROUND UP/VACANCIES<br><br>=> BiOS, a Division of the LINC Media group, is actively<br>marketing the following positions for customers setting up<br>or expanding in Japan, as well as other employers of<br>
bilinguals.<br><br>** HIGHLIGHTED POSITION<br><br>BiOS is urgently looking for a Project Manager with <br>experience managing IT projects, following client IT <br>project management processes at our client’s office in the <br>
Minato-ku area. The candidate will be responsible for <br>assembling a project team, assigning individual <br>responsibilities, identifying appropriate resources needed,<br>developing schedules to ensure timely completion of <br>
projects by assigned deadlines, as well as developing <br>project scopes/objectives and determine the role and <br>function of each team member. You will also be responsible <br>for engaging with global and regional operational groups, <br>
for resources management and support transfer.<br><br>Due to the technical nature and demanding work environment,<br>this position is suitable for someone with solid <br>experience as an IT project manager for more than seven <br>
years. In addition, since this role requires direct <br>coordination with both regional and global IT teams, <br>fluent English and Japanese will be required.<br><br>Remuneration is JPY8m – JPY11m depending on your experience<br>
and skill level.<br><br>** POSITIONS VACANT<br><br>- Network/Server Engineer, Japanese It Co, JPY5M – JPY7M<br>- Data Center IMAC Engineer, BiOS, JPY3.5M – JPY4M<br>- Desktop Support Engineer, global law firm, JPY4M – JPY5M<br>
- Service Delivery Mgr, datacenter, finance, JPY6M – JPY8M<br>- Bilingual Sales Administrator, BiOS, JPY3M – JPY3.5M<br><br>Interested individuals may e-mail resumes to:<br><a href="mailto:tomohiro.kimura@biosjp.com">tomohiro.kimura@biosjp.com</a><br>
<br>** BiOS Job Mail<br><br>Every 2 weeks BiOS sends out a regular communication to its<br>job seeking candidates, called BiOS Job Mail. Every edition<br>carries a list of BiOS's current and most up-to-date<br>vacancies, with each entry featuring a short job<br>
description and a direct link to the main entry on the BiOS<br>home page. Regardless of whether you are unemployed and<br>searching, thinking about a career change, or just curious<br>to know if there is something out there that might suit you<br>
better, the BiOS Job Mail newsletter is an easy and<br>convenient way for you to stay informed. If you would like<br>to register for the BiOS Job Mail, or to find out more,<br>please email <a href="mailto:kenji.sakota@biosjp.com">kenji.sakota@biosjp.com</a>.<br>
<br>Interested individuals may e-mail resumes to:<br><a href="mailto:tomohiro.kimura@biosjp.com">tomohiro.kimura@biosjp.com</a><br><br>-----------------------------------------------------------<br><br>--------- BIOS - Bilingual IT Systems and Support ---------<br>
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small.<br><br>Data Center staff and managed services, Help Desk, desktop,<br>and network support. Server virtualization, cloud computing<br>hosting and solutions, general software development. <br><br>For more information on these and other SI and IT services,<br>
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<br>***------------------------****-------------------------***<br><br>+++ UPCOMING EVENTS/ANNOUNCEMENTS<br><br>---------------- Start a Company in Japan -----------------<br><br>Entrepreneur's Handbook Seminar February 18, 2012<br>
<br>If you have been considering setting up your own company,<br>find out what it takes to make it successful. Terrie Lloyd,<br>founder of over 17 start-up companies in Japan, will be<br>giving an English-language seminar and Q and A on starting<br>
up a company in Japan.<br><br>This is an ideal opportunity to find out what is involved,<br>and to ask specific questions that are not normally<br>answered in business books. All materials are in English<br>and are Japan-focused.<br>
<br>For more details:<br><a href="http://www.japaninc.com/entrepreneur_handbook_seminar">http://www.japaninc.com/entrepreneur_handbook_seminar</a><br>-----------------------------------------------------------<br><br>***------------------------****-------------------------***<br>
<br>+++ CORRECTIONS/FEEDBACK<br><br>In this section we run comments and corrections submitted<br>by readers. We encourage you to spot our mistakes and<br>amplify our points, by email, to <a href="mailto:editors@terrie.com">editors@terrie.com</a>.<br>
<br>*** In TT641 we delved into possible reasons for the <br>Japanese permanent singles rate increasing as it has.<br>Contra to the mouse overpopulation theory we heard about<br>from a reader late last year, this time the observation is <br>
a bit more conventional.<br><br>=> Reader comments: <br><br>I was very interested to read your article on declining <br>marriage and birth rates.<br><br>I believe that if young couples could easily afford <br>spacious three-and four-bedroom homes, they would marry and<br>
have two to three children. But if all they can hope for is<br>two six-mat rooms and a three-mat kitchen or similar <br>combination, then having children just isn't inviting.<br><br>A large part of the answer lies within the house <br>
construction industry, prices for shoe-box mansions, and <br>building height restrictions. One might add regional <br>development, as there are thousands of large empty houses <br>in some rural areas.<br><br>Mansion construction in Tokyo appears unabated and people <br>
are still leaving the regions. The opposite should be <br>happening. Japan should repeat the Meiji era policy of tax <br>breaks, such as those that spurred the development of <br>Niigata, for regional development.<br><br>
The birth rate I believe is in the construction industry's <br>hands. <br><br>***********************************************************<br>END<br><br>SUBSCRIBERS: 8,294 members as of Jan 08, 2012<br>(We purge our list regularly.)<br>
<br>+++ ABOUT US<br><br>STAFF<br>Written by: Terrie Lloyd (<a href="mailto:terrie.lloyd@japaninc.com">terrie.lloyd@japaninc.com</a>)<br><br>HELP: E-mail <a href="mailto:Terrie-request@mailman.japaninc.com">Terrie-request@mailman.japaninc.com</a><br>
with the word 'help' in the subject or body (don't include<br>the quotes), and you will get back a message with<br>instructions.<br><br>FEEDBACK<br>Send letters (Feedback, Inquiries & Information) to the<br>
editor to <a href="mailto:terrie.lloyd@japaninc.com">terrie.lloyd@japaninc.com</a>.<br><br>ADVERTISING INFORMATION<br>For more information on advertising in this newsletter,<br>Contact <a href="mailto:ads@japaninc.com">ads@japaninc.com</a>.<br>
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