* * * * * * * * * T E R R I E 'S T A K E * * * * * * *<br>A weekly roundup of news & information from Terrie Lloyd.<br>(<a href="http://www.terrie.com">http://www.terrie.com</a>)<br><br>General Edition Sunday, January 15, 2012, Issue No. 645<br>
<br>+++ INDEX<br><br>- What's New -- Partnering with Vietnam<br>- News -- Bankruptcies lowest since 1990<br>- Candidate Roundup/Vacancies<br>- Upcoming Events<br>- Corrections/Feedback -- Business in China, doing it tough<br>
- News Credits<br><br>SUBSCRIBE to, UNSUBSCRIBE from Terrie's Take at:<br><a href="http://mailman.japaninc.com/mailman/listinfo/terrie">http://mailman.japaninc.com/mailman/listinfo/terrie</a><br><br>BACK ISSUES<br><a href="http://www.japaninc.com/terries_take">http://www.japaninc.com/terries_take</a>, or,<br>
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e-mail us at <a href="mailto:info@pbxl.jp">info@pbxl.jp</a> or call us at 03-4550-2557<br><br>----------- PBXL is BUSINESS COMMUNICATIONS --------------<br><br>+++ WHAT'S NEW<br><br>Back in the late 1990's we were told by a successful <br>
venture capitalist that the Asian country considered by the<br>Japanese as being closest in terms of temperament and <br>diligence was Vietnam. He said that with the socialist <br>nation starting to open up commercially, that there would <br>
be a flood of Japanese investment there. Given that China <br>was still growing rapidly, wages were still low, and <br>Vietnam had very little infrastructure, it was hard to see <br>what he was going on about. Now, however, his words have <br>
turned out to have been an uncanny prediction. Trade and <br>diplomacy between Vietnam and Japan is running at an <br>all-time high, and Vietnam is booming economically.<br><br>The fact is that Vietnam is highly strategic for Japan. The<br>
nation is not so large that it will ever be a threat, and <br>yet its large body of educated people come at some of the <br>most competitive wages in Asia (think US$200~US$500 a month<br>for a college graduate). This means that Japanese corporations <br>
see Vietnam as their risk hedge against the financial squeeze <br>that is starting to emerge in China. Specifically, the <br>Chinese government appears to be committed to wringing more<br>taxes and compliance costs out of foreign companies, as <br>
well as hitting them with compulsory wage hikes, and which <br>over time will cause many Japanese manufacturers (the <br>retailers will obviously stay) to flee that country. Those <br>we speak to say that they are looking at Vietnam -- so long<br>
as the infrastructure is there. <br><br>The Japanese also do feel close to Vietnam due to social <br>and welfare ties. For example, for the last 20 years Japan <br>has been the largest donor of foreign aid to Vietnam. This <br>
has come mainly as infrastructure loans, however, there has<br>also been significant private sector investment in <br>vocational colleges, cross-border training, and other human<br>resources projects. Presumably the thinking is that over <br>
time, Vietnam will supply Japan with engineers and farmers <br>as demographics force Japan to look abroad. The warmth <br>between "teacher" and "student" is very tangible. A recent <br>Nikkei article quoted an official from Ritsumeikan <br>
University, which has more than 200 Vietnamese students at <br>its Oita campus, as saying, "Vietnamese are more diligent <br>than Japanese students and are hungry to learn."<br><br>[Continued below...]<br><br>-- NAGAMINE & MISHIMA - Securing Your Success in Japan ---<br>
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at 03-3581-1975 or by email at <a href="mailto:info@nagamine-mishima.com">info@nagamine-mishima.com</a>.<br><br>---------- YOUR BOTTOM LINE IS OUR TOP PRIORITY------------<br><br>[...Article continues]<br><br>This attitude accounts for the burgeoning flow of promising<br>
Vietnamese students to Japanese universities such as <br>Ritsumeikan and Keio. As mentioned, Ritsumeikan in Beppu <br>has a large body of students, so large in fact, that it hosts a <br>Vietnam week every year which is one of the most popular <br>
events on the school calendar. We've been to it, and the <br>student-performed stage shows are always packed out. <br><br>But it's not all a bed of roses. While most of the <br>Vietnamese population is reasonably well educated, finding <br>
motivated workers beyond the ranks of the elite is more<br>difficult. There is also an obvious lack of Japanese <br>speakers, especially now with the flood of Japanese firms <br>setting up shop there. A JETRO survey in October last year <br>
stated that 63% of Japanese firms found that ability and <br>attitude of local staff was a problem, unless the person <br>had studied in Japan, in which case they were much more <br>acceptable.<br><br>As a result, the Japan International Cooperation Agency <br>
(JICA) is going to start a training center in Vietnam at a <br>cost of JPY200m, which will churn out engineers who have <br>also studied Japanese. This is the first time in about 10 <br>years that JICA has made such an investment, giving some <br>
idea of how Vietnam has been set on a fast track by the <br>decision-makers in Kasumigaseki. <br><br>Historically, Overseas Direct Assistance (ODA) to Vietnam <br>from Japan has been generous, and never more so than this <br>
last year, when Japan provided about JPY200bn of aid. The <br>loans are really "soft", being charged at between 0.2% and <br>1.2% for 30 to 40 years. The scope of these loans was <br>detailed in a March 2010 agreement between both <br>
governments, which listed the following projects over the <br>next few years:<br><br>* Terminal 2 Construction Project in Noi Bai International <br>Airport, JPY12.607bn<br>* Noi Bai to Nhat Tan Bridge, JPY6.546bn<br>* Cuu Long (Can Tho) Bridge Project, JPY4.626bn<br>
* Third National Highway No.1 Bridge Project, JPY1.038bn<br>* Hoa Lac Hi-Tech Park Infrastructure Development Project, <br>JPY1.005bn<br><br>Those project loans priced at just 0.2% interest are <br>actually "tied" projects, the Japanese government's favored<br>
way of steering ODA funds back to domestic (Japanese) <br>corporations. For example, it was announced in the media <br>back in December that Taisei had won the Terminal 2 project<br>for Noi Bai International Airport. We had to smile as the<br>
Nikkei had some gushing editorial about how "Taisei aims to<br>step up efforts to win more orders in Southeast Asia," when<br>in fact this deal was pretty much given to them. If we had <br>a Japanese grandmother in the construction business, she <br>
probably could have won the project... :-)<br><br>Still, we shouldn't be persnickety about Japanese ODA. At <br>least they are making the serious investments necessary, <br>and even though there were marginally more South Korean <br>
firms setting up shop in Vietnam last year, we suspect that<br>given Vietnam's stable and somewhat ossified political <br>system, memories about early investments and political<br>commitments by Japan won't die quickly and thus Japan will <br>
be the most favored nation for projects and approvals for <br>some time to come. The result is that Vietnam's <br>infrastructure is moving forward by leaps and bounds, and <br>therefore the number of Japanese firms that will opt for <br>
Vietnam in the future will soar. <br><br>As an example of things to come, Sapporo Beer announced <br>last November that it had just finished a JPY5.2bn brewery <br>in Ho Chi Minh City that will become the base for exports <br>
all over Asia. The new factory is already pretty significant in <br>size, currently producing 40Ml of beer, but it is due to be <br>expanded to 150Ml within 7 years -- or about 20% of <br>Sapporo's entire Japan-based production. That's a <br>
serious amount of beer...<br><br>We're watching Vietnam closely and already do some <br>business with a software company there. Our take is that<br>this country will boom from Japanese commercial <br>investment over the next decade, and turn out to be the<br>
"mini China" that our VC friend predicted all those years<br>ago. <br><br><br>...The information janitors/<br><br>***------------------------****-------------------------***<br><br>--------------------- Delta Air Lines ---------------------<br>
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or ‘Pay with Miles’ program.<br><br>Please visit <a href="http://delta.com">delta.com</a> for more details.<br>-----------------------------------------------------------<br><br>+++ NEWS<br><br>- Bankruptcies lowest since 1990<br>
- Office vacancies rise again<br>- First successful jailbreak in 23 years<br>- Hawaii Tourism Japan has new contractor<br>- Giant gas project in Australia finally approved<br><br><br><br>-> Bankruptcies lowest since 1990<br>
<br>We think it's just a temporary respite, but nonetheless, <br>surprisingly the number of companies going bankrupt with <br>debts of JPY10m or more was down to 12,734, the lowest <br>level since 1990. The numbers come from Tokyo Shoko <br>
Research, and show that the government's temporary loan <br>measures to support firms hurt by the earthquake are being <br>applied to a wider proportion of small companies than <br>probably initially envisaged. ***Ed: It is our belief that <br>
once the government turns off the loan forgiveness program,<br>possibly this year or next, the level of bankruptcies will <br>soar again. We don't know of many companies doing well, <br>other than some exporters.** (Source: TT commentary from <br>
<a href="http://e.nikkei.com">e.nikkei.com</a>, Jan 13, 2012)<br><br><a href="http://e.nikkei.com/e/ac/tnks/Nni20120113D13SS272.htm">http://e.nikkei.com/e/ac/tnks/Nni20120113D13SS272.htm</a><br><br>-> Office vacancies rise again<br>
<br>More trouble on the horizon for commercial landlords, as <br>the office vacancy rate for the five main wards of central <br>Tokyo -- being Chiyoda, Chuo, Minato, Shinjuku and Shibuya<br>-- rose again in December, for the 3rd consecutive month. <br>
The vacancy rate for December was 9.01%, up 0.11% from <br>November, and the average rent in the same five locations <br>is now JPY16,932 per tsubo (3.3 sq. m.). ***Ed: We don't <br>see this trend changing for another 6 months at least. <br>
Companies are very bearish about their prospects in the <br>domestic market, and so are naturally continuing to cut <br>costs -- being primarily personnel then office space. Add <br>to this the fact that many foreign firms are significantly <br>
cutting back their presence in Japan, particularly in the <br>banking sector, and you have a very negative market for <br>office space.** (Source: TT commentary from <a href="http://e.nikkei.com">e.nikkei.com</a>, <br>Jan 12, 2012)<br>
<br><a href="http://e.nikkei.com/e/ac/tnks/Nni20120112D12SS121.htm">http://e.nikkei.com/e/ac/tnks/Nni20120112D12SS121.htm</a><br><br>-> First successful jailbreak in 23 years<br><br>A Chinese burglary ringleader who was sentenced to 23 years <br>
in prison back in 2005 has the dubious distinction of <br>being the first inmate to successfully break out of prison <br>anywhere in the country since 1989. Apparently he took <br>advantage of reduced security during construction on the <br>
outer walls of Hiroshima prison, scrambling up the <br>construction scaffolding in his underpants. He was caught <br>two days later after being ID'd from a fingerprint he left<br>on a can of beer taken from an apartment he broke into to <br>
find clothes. ***Ed: You get the sense that even if you <br>did successfully break out of a Japanese prison, that <br>there are not so many places to hide as a foreigner.** <br>(Source: TT commentary from <a href="http://sfgate.com">sfgate.com</a>, Jan 11, 2012)<br>
<br><a href="http://bit.ly/AgtD6N">http://bit.ly/AgtD6N</a> <br><br>-> Hawaii Tourism Japan has new contractor<br><br>The Hawaii Tourism Authority has selected a new contractor <br>to represent the islands in Japan. The company's name is <br>
a.Link LLC, and it is led by an Eric Takahata. According to<br>the Authority, tourism from Japan to the Hawaiian islands is<br>recovering after a dramatic drop in visitors after the 3/11<br>earthquake and tsunami. ***Ed: We think other US states <br>
should be looking at opening offices here as well. Although<br>outbound tourism is still down, travel agency inquiries are<br>rebounding as the traveling public starts to realize that <br>the strong yen is a huge one-time advantage if you're <br>
Japanese.** (Source: TT commentary from <a href="http://businessweek.com">businessweek.com</a>, <br>Jan 11, 2012)<br><br><a href="http://www.businessweek.com/ap/financialnews/D9S85KD01.htm">http://www.businessweek.com/ap/financialnews/D9S85KD01.htm</a><br>
<br>-> Giant gas project in Australia finally approved<br><br>Major investors in the US$34bn Ichtys LNG gas field in <br>Australia, Japan's Inpex and France's Total, have finally <br>given their go-ahead for the project to start. The project <br>
is expected to produce about 8.4m tonnes of LNG a year, and <br>once it goes on stream in 2017, is expected to produce <br>about 10% of Australia's total output. ***Ed: About 70% of <br>this volume will go to Japan -- making it pretty clear that <br>
Japan is going to replace oil with LNG.** (Source: TT <br>commentary from <a href="http://reuters.com">reuters.com</a>, Jan 13, 2012)<br><br><a href="http://reut.rs/x0ej7s">http://reut.rs/x0ej7s</a> <br><br><br>NOTE: Broken links<br>
Many online news sources remove their articles after just a<br>few days of posting them, thus breaking our links -- we<br>apologize for the inconvenience.<br><br>***------------------------****-------------------------***<br>
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Web: <a href="http://www.biosjp.com">www.biosjp.com</a><br>-----------------------------------------------------------<br><br>***------------------------****-------------------------***<br><br>+++ UPCOMING EVENTS/ANNOUNCEMENTS<br>
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founder of over 17 start-up companies in Japan, will be<br>giving an English-language seminar and Q and A on starting<br>up a company in Japan.<br><br>This is an ideal opportunity to find out what is involved,<br>and to ask specific questions that are not normally<br>
answered in business books. All materials are in English<br>and are Japan-focused.<br><br>For more details:<br><a href="http://www.japaninc.com/entrepreneur_handbook_seminar">http://www.japaninc.com/entrepreneur_handbook_seminar</a><br>
-----------------------------------------------------------<br><br>***------------------------****-------------------------***<br><br>+++ CORRECTIONS/FEEDBACK<br><br>In this section we run comments and corrections submitted<br>
by readers. We encourage you to spot our mistakes and<br>amplify our points, by email, to <a href="mailto:editors@terrie.com">editors@terrie.com</a>.<br><br>*** In TT644 we gave our predictions for Japan for 2012,<br>which have the nation doing not so badly even as Europe<br>
takes it on the chin. One reader based in China gives us<br>feedback that things are not quite as hunky dory over <br>there as the media would have us think.<br><br>=> Reader comments: <br><br>2011 has been a very tough year for those of us running<br>
private businesses in China, but we have survived and <br>managed to keep things together and pay for the education <br>costs of our offspring -- a non-discretionary expenditure <br>for non-Chinese families living here. I don't need to <br>
remind anyone of what a momentous year it has been on the <br>international front, including most relevantly to us, the <br>unfolding economic crisis, but you may be less aware of <br>what is happening in China. <br><br>
This is the year that the real estate bubble burst. Perhaps<br>due to the nature of the system here, the deflation of the <br>bubble is not being accelerated by a media frenzy, but even<br>in the absence of the histrionics basic economics doesn't <br>
change. There is too much of the wrong sort of real estate <br>being developed and for most people the dream had receded <br>beyond even the faintest hope (or wildest fantasy) a while<br>ago, and so things had to come unstuck. The implications <br>
are huge. It is not only that there are now going to be <br>huge numbers of very large bad loans on the books of the <br>banks, but there are going to be lots of unhappy punters as<br>well. <br><br>And some of these punters are in unexpected places. For <br>
example, the real estate development frenzy was the main <br>source of revenue for local authorities issuing building<br>permits and with their various side businesses, and now <br>that revenue stream is now drying up rapidly. We are all<br>
waiting for them to start levying more new charges on <br>business to make up the difference. With the bursting of <br>the domestic development bubble, the demand for building <br>materials has slumped and so with a dead domestic market <br>
and an equally dead international market there are <br>businesses around us closing every day. Just in our area <br>alone, we are aware of many and we hear many stories that <br>such-and-such boss has just "done a runner". It's not <br>
healthy to hang around here if you owe lots of money. <br>Better to clear the safe and take the last wads of cash and<br>head for the hills. (Or the nearest airport or the second <br>home in Canada or wherever it is that you have prepared in <br>
better times as your safe haven.) <br><br>So 2012 is going to be tough for China. There will be no <br>growth in exports next year and there will be trouble at <br>home as workers find less jobs are available. Unfortunately<br>
at the same time, the government continues to legislate for<br>annual wage increases, in an attempt to close the <br>astronomical wealth gap that exists in this country, but <br>the timing is wrong for such noble initiatives. It is not a<br>
time for policies that fly in the face of the basic laws of<br>economics. The issue next year will not be the wealth gap, <br>it will be the lack of jobs growth and, indeed, probably a <br>shrinking employment market. We have witnessed a massive <br>
labour riot near our factory first hand and it is not<br>pretty. The number of disputes is rising rapidly and so <br>keeping the lid on next year is going to be hard. The <br>authorities are well aware of this and their nervousness <br>
(think Tunisia et al) is obvious everywhere.....<br><br>***********************************************************<br>END<br><br>SUBSCRIBERS: 8,300 members as of Jan 15, 2012<br>(We purge our list regularly.)<br><br>+++ ABOUT US<br>
<br>STAFF<br>Written by: Terrie Lloyd (<a href="mailto:terrie.lloyd@japaninc.com">terrie.lloyd@japaninc.com</a>)<br><br>HELP: E-mail <a href="mailto:Terrie-request@mailman.japaninc.com">Terrie-request@mailman.japaninc.com</a><br>
with the word 'help' in the subject or body (don't include<br>the quotes), and you will get back a message with<br>instructions.<br><br>FEEDBACK<br>Send letters (Feedback, Inquiries & Information) to the<br>
editor to <a href="mailto:terrie.lloyd@japaninc.com">terrie.lloyd@japaninc.com</a>.<br><br>ADVERTISING INFORMATION<br>For more information on advertising in this newsletter,<br>Contact <a href="mailto:ads@japaninc.com">ads@japaninc.com</a>.<br>
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<br>J@pan Inc is Japan's only independently published English-<br>language business website. Authoritatively chronicling<br>online the business trends in Japan, each posting brings<br>you in-depth analysis of business, people and technology in<br>
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