* * * * * * * * * T E R R I E 'S T A K E * * * * * * *<br>A weekly roundup of news & information from Terrie Lloyd.<br>(<a href="http://www.terrie.com">http://www.terrie.com</a>)<br><br>General Edition Sunday, July 29, 2012, Issue No. 672<br>
<br>+++ INDEX<br><br>- What's New -- Will Dentsu hit a home run with Aegis?<br>- News -- Consumer prices, retail sales miss targets<br>- Upcoming Events<br>- Corrections/Feedback - Current account surplus correction<br>
- Travel Picks -- Okayama swords and Shimane art<br>- News Credits<br><br>SUBSCRIBE to, UNSUBSCRIBE from Terrie's Take at:<br><a href="http://mailman.japaninc.com/mailman/listinfo/terrie">http://mailman.japaninc.com/mailman/listinfo/terrie</a><br>
<br>BACK ISSUES<br><a href="http://www.japaninc.com/terries_take">http://www.japaninc.com/terries_take</a>, or,<br><a href="http://mailman.japaninc.com/pipermail/terrie/">http://mailman.japaninc.com/pipermail/terrie/</a><br>
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<br>------------ PBXL is BUSINESS COMMUNICATIONS --------------<br><br>+++ WHAT'S NEW<br><br>Two news items in the press over the last couple of weeks <br>tell us a story of unrequited love in the business world. <br>
Those seeking "love" being Japanese multinationals, and <br>those spurning it being the management of their takeover<br>targets. Let's start with the latest "love affair" being the <br>acquisition of the Aegis group of marketing companies by<br>
Dentsu, announced on July 12th. <br><br>Dentsu is paying a huge 48% premium over the last closing <br>price for the object of its desire -- marketing group <br>Aegis, making the deal worth about US$5bn. To put this in <br>
some perspective, Aegis shares were already pretty richly <br>priced and this deal is equivalent to 20 year's worth of <br>this year's expected earnings...! That's a pretty low ROI <br>for the next 20 years for Dentsu. On the upside, you have <br>
to be a major entity to win clients these days, and in <br>combining the two companies, Dentsu has now vaulted to the <br>position of fifth largest ad agency network in the world. <br>Along with its earlier acquisitions, the company now has<br>
decent coverage in most developed countries around the <br>globe. Still, ahead of Dentsu are WPP, Publicis Groupe, <br>Omnicom and IPG.<br><br>The deal had ad industry commentators buzzing, with some <br>saying that it is a "perfect fit" but with others <br>
commenting that even after the deal, 80% of the combined <br>group's income will be in mature economies, 60% of the <br>income will still be in Japan, and only 20% will be in <br>digital. We thought the best comment was from Martin <br>
Sorrell of WPP who told Bloomberg, "The conclusion from <br>analysts this morning was that the strategy was right but <br>price is very high and the execution risk is substantial."<br><br>[Continued below...]<br>
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<br>---------- YOUR BOTTOM LINE IS OUR TOP PRIORITY------------<br><br><br>[...Article continues]<br><br>Yes, risky indeed. So here we have another major Japanese<br>player that realizes that the domestic market has topped <br>
out and business can only decline from here. Therefore, it <br>needs to move abroad, and to be credible with major foreign<br>clients, it needs to be big. Thus, it was only a matter of <br>time before Dentsu would announce a deal. What surprised <br>
people, though, is the sheer size of this one and the <br>premium company it went after. Past experience showed <br>the company being more interested in "nibble-sized" <br>opportunities. Maybe they were just practice runs?<br>
<br>Now that Dentsu has committed itself to the next 5-10 years<br>to making this deal work, we see a number of challenges <br>ahead: i) Personality fit between Dentsu and Aegis senior <br>management, ii) untested ability of Dentsu management to <br>
run a major foreign acquisition, iii) the fact that most of <br>both companies clients are in mature markets, and Europe in<br>particular is troublesome, and iv) how will they ramp up <br>their digital income so as to remain relevant to <br>
advertisers?<br><br>Personality fit.<br>Here's what AdWeek ran from interviews with former <br>employees about Aegis CEO Jerry Buhlmann when he was <br>appointed CEO of Aegis Media EMEA back in 2003. "Jerry is a<br>
very business-focused and numbers-orientated man, devoid of<br>character or personality. He certainly doesn't have a sense<br>of humor." And another person said, "He's driven by <br>personal ambition. I think what counts with him is to what <br>
extent he can use people to get what he wants." Hmmm, <br>doesn't this sound like someone remarkably similar to <br>Michael Woodford, who ran Olympus UK? In other words <br>they're both good operators but quite unsuitable for the <br>
"squirrely consensus-driven Japanese senior management. <br>We suspect that Buhlmann is ready to retire move on and <br>will either leave of his own free will after a respectable <br>period of time, or will quickly have a run-in with <br>
consensus-driven Dentsu management. Either way, given <br>that Buhlmann has been referred to as a one-man band <br>in the past, his departure would certainly spell a significant<br>risk factor to the success of this deal.<br>
<br>Dentsu international management skills.<br>To our knowledge, Dentsu has not executed a <br>successful major foreign acquisition before from Japan<br>(they have done some smaller deals through the US <br>office under Tim Andree), which apparently was why they <br>
had so few acquisitions until recently. Once burned, twice<br>shy. <br><br>Probably there are two ways forward for Dentsu: either <br>leave Aegis alone and let the senior team they've just <br>bought get on with the job, or inject some talented <br>
leaders from the parent or a related subsidiary, to move <br>Aegis closer to the parent firm's formula. <br><br>We think it can be said that the type of business that <br>Dentsu practices in Japan, that of deep, long-lasting ties <br>
which depend on personal relationships more than <br>marketing skills, is not what Aegis needs, although it <br>can work in developing countries. So they have to either <br>put in someone like Andree from their US operation, but<br>
we imagine he is already busy with his own M&A and <br>expansion efforts, or they need to leave Aegis alone. <br>Question is, left alone, what will Aegis' senior management<br>look like if Buhlmann departs? Possibly it will have to<br>
have Andree's stamp on it anyway, because Dentsu <br>doesn't appear to have anyone else with the right <br>experience.<br><br>Mature markets.<br>The second company in our unrequited love story is Nomura <br>Securities, which paid a huge price recently by allowing <br>
its senior management to resign to take responsibility for <br>an insider-trading scandal. But the speculation is that <br>while the insider trading was bad, in fact there is a <br>deeper story. The speculation is that CEO Ken Watanabe, who<br>
was the motive force behind the Lehman Europe takeover deal<br>in 2008, is being made to pay for the Lehman miscalculation<br>(i.e., hemorrhaging cash on 8,000+ Lehman employees while the<br>European markets evaporate) by political forces within <br>
Nomura. Especially in Japanese companies, it is an <br>exceptional leader who can withstand subordinates <br>continually sniping at him/her or outright sabotaging their<br>plans through inaction. With its appointment of a new <br>
domestically-focused CEO, who is signaling a restructuring <br>of the international operations is in the works, we think <br>that Nomura is beating a retreat. Therefore, one wonders at<br>the wisdom of Dentsu buying Europe-based Aegis BEFORE there<br>
has been a serious European meltdown -- which many in the <br>markets believe is only a matter of time. If it does <br>happen, then this has to be a serious risk to Dentsu.<br><br>Digital.<br>In a company as large and diverse as Dentsu, there is no <br>
way of really knowing what their skills and prospects are <br>like in digital advertising, which is predicted to overtake<br>print advertising globally by 2017, but even if they have <br>decent assets, the competition for advertising dollars is <br>
defined by a new paradigm that ad companies need to get <br>used to -- the big digital portals sucking in ad dollars <br>themselves. By portals, we mean the Googles, Yahoos, and <br>Facebooks of the world. What these companies have that most<br>
ad companies cannot compete with is technology, and in the <br>new digital era it is functionality as well as information <br>that is driving success. Therefore, unless Dentsu was to <br>turn around and buy out FourSquare, for example, it is hard<br>
for us to see them being able to take significant market <br>share in the digital space. <br><br>So in total, we think that Dentsu has its work cut out to <br>try to manage the Aegis acquisition into further growth. We<br>
agree that they have to be bigger to be a player, and so <br>the rationale is probably correct, but the devil will be in<br>the details and risks that come with them. In this respect,<br>we think that Dentsu has a strong chance of repeating the <br>
Nomura experience, with quiet regret being the primary <br>result.<br><br><br><br>...The information janitors/<br><br>***------------------------****-------------------------***<br><br>-------------------- Delta Air Lines ----------------------<br>
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terminal accommodates more passengers and makes <br>international travel a breeze.<br><br>Customers travelling from Asia Pacific to Atlanta will <br>arrive mostly at Concourses E or F, while flights from <br>"pre-cleared" countries will arrive on Concourses T through<br>
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- There is a passenger pickup area and ground <br>transportation center at the new international terminal.<br>- From the international terminal, complimentary shuttles <br>are available to both the domestic terminal which includes <br>
MARTA, as well as to the rental car center.<br><br>We know these new arrangements will smooth your trip to <br>Atlanta and we look forward to serving you on your next <br>flight.<br><br>For more information about the international terminal, <br>
please visit <a href="http://delta.com">delta.com</a><br>-----------------------------------------------------------<br><br>+++ NEWS<br><br>- Consumer prices, retail sales miss targets<br>- M3 buys MIC Medical<br>- Utilities have biggest electricity demand this summer<br>
- Nomura to go domestic again?<br>- Fujitsu sees Q1 profits fall<br><br><br><br>=> Consumer prices, retail sales miss targets<br><br>Despite the Bank of Japan's recent enthusiastic declaration<br>that Japan's economy is improving economy, government <br>
stats seem to show that it is faltering again. Consumer prices <br>unexpectedly fell by 0.2% over June 2011, and at the same <br>time retail sales barely rose 0.2%, the smallest rise in 9 <br>months. Home electronics was particularly hard hit, with a <br>
32% fall. ***Ed: The government must now be hoping for a <br>consumer splurge in 2013, prior to the consumption tax <br>increase -- a poor method of encouraging more spending and <br>one that will have its own consequences a year later.** <br>
(Source: TT commentary from <a href="http://japantimes.co.jp">japantimes.co.jp</a>, Jul 28, 2012)<br><br><a href="http://bit.ly/LTmJJj">http://bit.ly/LTmJJj</a><br><br>=> M3 buys MIC Medical<br><br>Interesting to see Sony's (Sonet's) M3 subsidiary work out <br>
a services business for its thriving medical portal. M3 is <br>buying out JASDAQ-listed MIC Medical, which is a clinical <br>trials services company. No word on the price paid, <br>although the Nikkei seems to indicate the 13,558 shares <br>
went at the closing price of JPY179,500, which means M3 is <br>paying around JPY2.4bn. This is a pretty high premium for <br>a company that only managed to eke out JPY143m of profit on<br>a consolidated basis last year. ***Ed: Maybe M3 is betting <br>
it can pull off a Macromedia style business, of moving some<br>of the heavy lifting involved in clinical trials online and<br>creating a web survey paradigm? Pure speculation by us...**<br>(Source: TT commentary from <a href="http://e.nikkei.com">e.nikkei.com</a>, Jul 27, 2012)<br>
<br><a href="http://s.nikkei.com/OsO6as">http://s.nikkei.com/OsO6as</a><br><br>=> Utilities have biggest electricity demand this summer<br><br>Power demand surged last Friday, as summer really settled <br>in across the country and the mercury soared to 34 degrees <br>
(meaning it was 35-38 degrees at street level). The media <br>covered the power surge closely, as it reminded the <br>population that electricity supplies are fragile. <br>Apparently TEPCO was at 91% capacity when it supplied <br>
50.88GW between 14:00 and 15:00 on Friday afternoon. The <br>company's capacity is 55.8GW. Chubu Electric ran at 93% <br>capacity and Kansai Electric ran at 88%. ***Ed: Looks like <br>the public are doing their part to keep demand down, and <br>
hopefully we squeak through this summer with no black <br>outs.** (Source: TT commentary from <a href="http://e.nikkei.com">e.nikkei.com</a>, Jul 28, <br>2012)<br><br><a href="http://s.nikkei.com/MRUw4X">http://s.nikkei.com/MRUw4X</a><br>
<br><br>=> Nomura to go domestic again?<br><br>Very good piece from FT.com about the probability that <br>Nomura will pull back from its global strategy and focus on<br>Japan again. The article points out that the departure of <br>
Kenichi Watanabe and some lieutenants, to take <br>responsibility for the insider trading scandal that has <br>rocked the company recently, will significantly realign <br>foreign/domestic cliques within the company. It surely <br>
doesn't help that replacement CEO Koji Nagai has stated, <br>"Given that the business environment is changing so <br>dramatically, we will remake the global franchise into an <br>appropriate size." ***Ed: Sounds like some serious <br>
head-cutting is ahead for Nomura.** (Source: TT commentary <br>from <a href="http://ft.com">ft.com</a>, Jul 26, 2012)<br><br><a href="http://on.ft.com/OWXhyd">http://on.ft.com/OWXhyd</a><br><br>=> Fujitsu sees Q1 profits fall<br>
<br>The high yen and problems in Europe are starting to bite <br>into the profits of even the most stalwart of Japanese <br>firms. Fujitsu has just announced that its Q1 loss was <br>JPY23.7bn, worse by 16% than the loss recorded for the <br>
same period last year. The company blamed a fall-off in <br>demand for LSI chips, optical transmission systems, <br>servers, and other infrastructure products. Sales for some <br>consumer products, especially car navigation systems and <br>
audio for vehicles rose. ***Ed: Telcos around the world are<br>battening down the hatches for what they think is going to <br>be a tough financial period over the next 12-18 months. We <br>think this is primarily based on fears about Europe and the<br>
fall-out to the rest of the business world.** (Source: TT <br>commentary from afp on <a href="http://google.com">google.com</a>, Jul 28, 2012)<br><br><a href="http://bit.ly/QQwl9z">http://bit.ly/QQwl9z</a><br><br><br><br>
NOTE: Broken links<br>Many online news sources remove their articles after just a<br>few days of posting them, thus breaking our links -- we<br>apologize for the inconvenience.<br><br>***------------------------****-------------------------***<br>
<br>+++ CANDIDATE ROUND UP/VACANCIES<br><br>=> BiOS, a Division of the LINC Media group, is actively<br>marketing the following positions for customers setting up<br>or expanding in Japan, as well as other employers of<br>
bilinguals.<br><br>** HIGHLIGHTED POSITION<br><br>BiOS is urgently looking for a Senior Support Engineer, at <br>our office in the Minato-ku area, with experience <br>troubleshooting users on various issues, 2nd and 3rd level <br>
support, administrating servers at client locations, and <br>coordinating with colleagues, vendors, and clients. The <br>candidate will be responsible for troubleshooting networks,<br>servers, hardware, and software, Move Add Change and server<br>
monitoring, as well as data backup (tape changing), <br>inventory management, and assisting in designing and <br>setting up networks.<br><br>You will also be responsible for consulting with the sales <br>team to provide technical advice.<br>
<br>Due to the technical nature and demanding work environment,<br>this position is suitable for someone with 3+ years of <br>system administration experience and 4+ years of <br>user/desktop support, with a preference for those with some<br>
experience in network design and site audits. In addition, <br>since this role requires direct negotiations with both <br>Japanese and international clients, business-level English <br>and fluent Japanese will be required.<br>
<br>Remuneration is JPY4.5m – JPY5.5m depending on your <br>experience and skill level.<br><br>** POSITIONS VACANT<br><br>- Data Center Operator, large DC co., JPY 2.5M – 3.5M<br>- Bilingual Desktop Engr, telco services firm, JPY 3M – 4M<br>
- Admin Assistant, systems integration firm, JPY 2M – 3M<br>- Sales/Recruitment Assistant, BiOS, 2.5MJPY – JPY3.5M<br><br>** BiOS Job Mail<br><br>Every 2 weeks BiOS sends out a regular communication to its<br>job seeking candidates, called BiOS Job Mail. Every edition<br>
carries a list of BiOS's current and most up-to-date<br>vacancies, with each entry featuring a short job<br>description and a direct link to the main entry on the BiOS<br>home page. Regardless of whether you are unemployed and<br>
searching, thinking about a career change, or just curious<br>to know if there is something out there that might suit you<br>better, the BiOS Job Mail newsletter is an easy and<br>convenient way for you to stay informed. If you would like<br>
to register for the BiOS Job Mail, or to find out more,<br>please email <a href="mailto:jason.kisling@biosjp.com">jason.kisling@biosjp.com</a>.<br><br>Interested individuals may e-mail resumes to:<br><a href="mailto:jason.kisling@biosjp.com">jason.kisling@biosjp.com</a><br>
<br>-----------------------------------------------------------<br><br>***------------------------****-------------------------***<br><br>+++ UPCOMING EVENTS/ANNOUNCEMENTS<br><br>---------------- Start a Company in Japan -----------------<br>
<br>Entrepreneur's Handbook Seminar 29th of September, 2012<br><br>If you have been considering setting up your own company,<br>find out what it takes to make it successful. Terrie Lloyd,<br>founder of over 17 start-up companies in Japan, will be <br>
giving an English-language seminar and Q&A on starting up <br>a company in Japan.<br><br>This is an ideal opportunity to find out what is involved,<br>and to ask specific questions that are not normally <br>answered in business books. All materials are in English <br>
and are Japan-focused.<br><br>For more details:<br><a href="http://www.japaninc.com/entrepreneur_handbook_seminar">http://www.japaninc.com/entrepreneur_handbook_seminar</a><br>------------------------------------------------------------<br>
<br>***------------------------****-------------------------***<br><br>+++ CORRECTIONS/FEEDBACK<br><br>In this section we run comments and corrections submitted<br>by readers. We encourage you to spot our mistakes and<br>
amplify our points, by email, to <a href="mailto:editors@terrie.com">editors@terrie.com</a>.<br><br>*** A reader points out to us the finer details of the<br>current account surplus.<br><br>=> Reader says:<br><br>I was a bit startled by your TT671 summary on the current <br>
account this week, so went to the Bloomberg link you gave <br>to see what was really going on. When you stated that “all <br>trade, not just exports” was Y215.1bn for the month, and <br>suggested that this had fallen by over 50% compared with <br>
the previous year, I nearly had a heart attack! If the <br>total of both exports and imports (whether including the <br>other items in the current account or not) had fallen by <br>over 50% year-on-year, the Japanese economy really would be<br>
in trouble! <br><br>But a glance at the original suggested that the figure <br>cited was the current account surplus, not “all trade”. Of <br>course this is important economic information, but I don’t <br>think the current account or trade surpluses should be <br>
described as economic “performance”, as such. As a mature <br>economy with an increasing proportion of its population <br>retired, Japan is really at the stage where it should be <br>running a trade (and perhaps also current account) deficit,<br>
and a rebalancing in that direction shouldn’t be regarded <br>as disastrous. If a collapse in these surpluses were caused<br>by surging imports (unlikely, I grant), it would suggest <br>that domestic consumption was booming, and would be a very <br>
good thing. [Ed: Or it could just be lots of expensive oil <br>imports for the utilities... which may not be healthy.]<br><br>I’d note that the current account surplus is not a measure <br>of “output”. It’s the difference between the value of <br>
exports (and income on overseas investments) and imports <br>(and dividends/interest paid on foreign investments in <br>Japan). If the current account surplus were to fall to <br>zero, this wouldn’t mean that the Japanese economy had <br>
disappeared altogether, merely that exports etc. were <br>balancing imports etc., which is generally considered to be<br>a reasonably healthy state of affairs. (At the global <br>level, exports have to balance imports by definition, <br>
although they don’t in the reported figures because of <br>errors and omissions. Unsustainably large current <br>account imbalances have often been cited as a cause of <br>economic instability over the last few decades.) Exports, <br>
in this context, include exports of services as well as <br>goods, so the direct link between the current account <br>surplus and the manufacturing sector is pretty tenuous.<br><br>The machinery orders also cited by the article are more <br>
directly linked to manufacturing. Not only is machinery <br>produced by the manufacturing sector, but companies have to<br>buy it to expand manufacturing capacity. The fact that they<br>aren’t ordering much suggests they are not confident about <br>
the outlook for manufacturing – and as you say, that’s <br>still a significant part of the economy and employment.<br><br>I’m not really following the Japanese economy closely <br>enough to say whether things are likely to improve from <br>
here or not. But I wouldn’t be at all surprised if the <br>pessimists were right – a lot of the strength in the <br>Japanese economy over the last year has been a one-off <br>recovery after the earthquake. And although the <br>
reconstruction of Tohoku will generate sustained demand in <br>that region for some years, the experience of the Kobe <br>earthquake suggests that much of that investment will <br>replace investment or spending that would have happened <br>
elsewhere, rather than being a net addition to total <br>demand.<br><br>***------------------------****-------------------------***<br><br>+++ TRAVEL DESTINATIONS PICKS<br><br>=> The Sword and Okayama<br>The Bizen Connection<br>
<br>When you think of the Japanese sword the word katana <br>probably comes to mind. What I came to understand after <br>several visits to the Bizen Osafune Sword Museum is that <br>the katana is just the name of one type of sword among <br>
many. According to the museum, the katana was born from the<br>change to infantry style warfare away from the cavalry. So <br>you could say that the katana was the game changing assault<br>rifle of its day. What is the definition of a Japanese <br>
sword? The answer to this question relates directly to <br>Japanese history.<br><br>Why Osafune? Well, Osafune was a very important sword <br>making town during the Muromachi period, which ran from the<br>mid-14th century to the late-16th century. During that era <br>
the eastern part of Okayama Prefecture was called Bizen <br>Province, which is where the museum’s full name Bizen <br>Osafune comes from. It’s a little confusing because the <br>neighboring city to the east is also called “Bizen”. <br>
Osafune had not only its own school or style of sword <br>making but was also one of the largest producers of swords <br>in Japan. During that period of Japan’s history, the land <br>was divided into states controlled by feuding warlords who <br>
tried to keep power from falling into the hands of a <br>central emperor. <br><br>Sounds like a Star Wars movie doesn’t it? In fact it wasn’t<br>far from one as the ability to produce swords brought power<br>and prestige to the region and its rulers. Japan had yet to<br>
become a single country and was governed much the way <br>Europe was in its Middle Ages. A Lord or Emperor was first <br>and foremost a landowner with a number of landless workers <br>and farmers under their control. Samurai were enlisted to <br>
defend the land not unlike the way kings in Europe employed<br>knights in times of strife. Money was hard to come by so <br>payments were made in land and commodities.<br><br><a href="http://bit.ly/O85CDp">http://bit.ly/O85CDp</a><br>
<br>=> Adachi Museum of Art a must-see in Shimane<br><br>If there was only one “must see” in Shimane prefecture, my <br>vote would go to the Adachi Museum of Art. Set in the <br>simple countryside of Yasugi, Adachi is tucked away between<br>
Shimane’s dramatic ranges in a long, flat valley. Fifteen <br>minutes from the nearest train station, Adachi has brought <br>guests from all over the world to this sleepy town. While <br>the museum is well known for artifacts, ceramics and a <br>
collection of very ornate paper walls, it was the simple <br>art of nature that first drew me in. <br><br>The founder, Adachi Zenko, created the museum and now <br>famous integrated gardens, as a gesture of gratitude to his<br>
hometown. After becoming a well respected businessman, <br>investor and land owner, he wanted others to see life in <br>Shimane as he did. We should be thankful for this, because <br>the surrounding beauty acts perfectly as a backdrop to the <br>
main stage. The gardens are meticulously sculpted, no <br>stone, branch or leaf out of place. It’s the ultimate <br>marriage of earth’s natural beauty and man’s tender care. <br>It’s a scene writers will forever struggle to paint with <br>
words, what can only be truly felt, through sight. Adachi <br>is a place for reflection, for thought and meditation.<br><br><a href="http://bit.ly/Ms393q">http://bit.ly/Ms393q</a><br><br>-----------------------------------------------------------<br>
<br>***********************************************************<br>END<br><br>SUBSCRIBERS: 7,953 members as of July 29, 2012<br>(We purge our list regularly.)<br><br>+++ ABOUT US<br><br>STAFF<br>Written by: Terrie Lloyd (<a href="mailto:terrie.lloyd@japaninc.com">terrie.lloyd@japaninc.com</a>)<br>
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