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font-size: 14px;" lang="x-unicode">* * * * * * * * TERRIE'S
(TOURISM) TAKE - BY TERRIE LLOYD * * * * * *
<br>
A bi-weekly focused look at the tourism sector in Japan, by Terrie
Lloyd, a long-term technology and media entrepreneur living in
Japan.
<br>
(<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="http://www.terrielloyd.com">http://www.terrielloyd.com</a>)
<br>
<br>
Tourism Sector Edition Sunday, July 30 2017, Issue No. 907
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SUBSCRIBE to, UNSUBSCRIBE from Terrie's Take at: <a
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<br>
+++ Using Missiles, Will Kim Jong-Un Gatecrash the Tokyo Olympics?
<br>
<br>
The last couple of months have been good ones for North Korea, in
that its leader Kim Jong-Un has correctly read the reactions of
the region's great powers. Given that he is crazy like a fox it's
hard to say how he thinks things will eventually play out, but for
the time being he has everyone's attention. With this latest
Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) test, he is raising the
stakes and going from being an irrelevant annoyance to the U.S.
who was only capable of hitting parts of Japan, to now being a
major strategic threat. Donald Trump has already said that he
would not allow North Korea to gain nuclear-capable ICBMs, but he
may have to change his mind once he properly understands the
options.
<br>
<br>
Earlier this week a San Francisco Chronicle stated, lifting from a
Robert Oppenheimer quote some years ago, "...the current situation
is like putting two scorpions in a bottle" - meaning a belligerent
Kim and an aggressive Trump, both looking for a public diversion.
Less fortunately for those of us here in Japan, the Chronicle then
goes on to say that, rather than any preemptive attack by North
Korea on California, it's more likely to target Japan or South
Korea..." Hmmm, this kind of media speculation is not exactly
conducive to Japan Inbound tourism, especially if the war of words
escalates.
<br>
<br>
Indeed, for the first time ever, several months ago (in April,
2017) we had a travel agency client ask us if the North Korean
situation is anything that they should be worried about. They had
been watching news reports of Trump saying that he was sending an
"Armada" to Korean waters, to send a "powerful signal to North
Korea". Much to the embarrassment of those managing allied
relations in this area, it turned out that Trump had his geography
mixed up and the USS Carl Vinson was actually 3,500 miles away in
the Indian Ocean doing exercises with the Australians. The episode
was mocked internationally and may be one more reason why this
time around Trump may seek a more substantive response.
<br>
<br>
So what kind of substantive response might that be and what does
it mean to those of us in Japan? The Atlantic magazine posted a
very thorough analysis of what options are open to Trump. These
basically range from a surprise attack wiping out the military
capability of North Korea, with substantial collateral damage to
South Korea and Japan as Kim's forces unleash the many chemical
weapons stockpiled all over the country, through to doing nothing.
In between, the Atlantic offered two more options: a limited
attack to serve as a warning to Kim, a highly risky strategy if
you ask me, and assassinating him. The article is a long but
interesting read.
<br>
<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://theatln.tc/2viwuxG">http://theatln.tc/2viwuxG</a>
[Atlantic analysis]
<br>
<br>
[Continued below...]
<br>
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<br>
<br>
But what strikes me about all of these options is how put both
South Korea and Japan in harm's way, and particularly disturbing
is the fact that if Kim did target Japan his forces would focus on
American bases across the country first, meaning that most major
entry points to Japan would be hit.
<br>
<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://bit.ly/2uKckej">http://bit.ly/2uKckej</a>
[Known U.S. armed forces bases locations in Japan]
<br>
<br>
I'm not expecting Kim to risk Armageddon and his family legacy,
and in the long run Trump will probably chose to follow the same
path as Obama and Bush before him, which is to ignore the
posturing and the threat. However, there is no doubt that Kim is
gaining the ability to shake the tree whenever he feels like, and
will probably be tempted to do so. The most obvious opportunity
will be the Tokyo Olympics in 2020. If we were Kim, making some
threats prior to the Olympics would cause Tokyo incalculable
financial and political damage. So, apart from gaining some
enjoyment watching the Japanese squirm, it would be a great way
for him to extract billions in protection payments.
<br>
<br>
As psychologists well know, it's the fear of a threat more than
the threat itself which causes extreme reactions. And
interestingly, recent research has found that humans become most
anxious about novel (newly experienced) threats in particular.
Earthquakes? Well Japan has them all the time, so while they are
dangerous, everyone knows that the Japanese are great structural
engineers and have mitigated that threat sufficiently that 27m
foreign tourists will still travel here this year. Radiation on
the other hand, was in 2011 rather novel, and given that it is an
invisible killer and easily spread by the weather, it was the
major international scare story that year.
<br>
<br>
For this reason, of course, in 2012 Japan had the biggest drop in
inbound tourists in 62 years.
<br>
<br>
U.S. media speculation about nuclear and VX gas threats from North
Korea may not find much credence here in Japan, although such news
is reported, and most Japanese trust in Fate enough to get on with
their lives. What else can they do? They live here. But for others
in SE Asia and China there is a sensitivity to perceived threats
that directs the flow of travel significantly. We saw this during
the avian flu (SARS) crisis in 2003 and then with Fukushima in
2011. The foreign media harped on about the threat, levels of
alarm in Asia quickly rose, and people simply cancelled their
trips.
<br>
<br>
What is the solution? Under normal circumstances I think that the
government would prefer to try and quietly bribe Kim to leave the
country alone while working on more effective defensive measures.
For example, allowing cash transfers from Pachinko parlors to
resume. However, since Japan is also greatly influenced by U.S.
military thinking, and right now Trump and his team are driving
that thinking, there seems to be a shift in stance towards taking
more direct action. That's scary to say the least. Luckily the
media in Asia haven't latched on to this yet.
<br>
<br>
There is one other country in the world that is already threatened
by missiles every day and yet which is able to maintain a
semi-normal existence. That country is Israel. Their solution was
to create the Iron Dome missile shield, which although not perfect
is capable of shooting down 90% of incoming missiles to a range of
70km, and at a cost of "just" US$100,000 per countermeasure launch
(requires two missiles). Of course an ICBM is much harder than a
home-made missile to bring down, and it needs much greater
sophistication in terms of both detection and shoot-down. Ideally
an ICBM needs to be detected shortly after launch and to be
intercepted at its slowest point, just as it passes its perigee.
There are currently four systems would be thrown at the ICBM to
destroy, these being THAAD (used in South Korea), Patriot PAC-3
(used here), Aegis (used by the U.S. and Japanese navies), and
GMD.
<br>
<br>
Of these, only the GMD system is designed specifically to
intercept ICBMs. This US$40bn system has been plagued with patchy
test results, but the U.S. military finally conducted a very
convincing kill test in March this year, which shows that GMD may
be capable after all.
<br>
<br>
In any case, detection is the first part of the solution, and
Japan is already quite capable of putting up geo-stationary
satellites, having launched their first geo-stationary weather
satellite in 1978. In January of this year (2017) they launched
their first dedicated military satellite, and while the main
emphasis of that unit was communications, I'm pretty sure onboard
missile detection focusing on North Korea would have been part of
the specification.
<br>
<br>
Given that North Korea has decided to ante up the stakes, Japan
doesn't really seem to have that many options after all.
Therefore, I would not be surprised to see the Abe government
invest massively in some kind of protective missile dome for
Japan. Then if Kim did decide to threaten the country nearer the
Olympics so as to squeeze out some cash, the Japanese government
could then reveal their hand and conduct missile shield tests to
show it was capable of protecting itself. In doing so, they would
also go a long way in reassuring skittish visitors that the
country is safe enough to visit.
<br>
<br>
But it would certainly be a lot cheaper to simply bow down and
pray to the gods a bit harder - so I wouldn't rule that out
either. What would they pray for? That Kim falls ill from heart
disease, that President Trump decides discretion is the best part
of valor, and that the tourists keep coming in greater numbers.
<br>
<br>
<br>
...The information janitors/
<br>
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<br>
<br>
----- SHOCHU & AWAMORI Taste the Spirit of Japan 2017 -----
<br>
<br>
Discover the charm of Japanese spirits! On Sep 4 at Togo Kinenkan,
a variety of Japanese craft liquors will be presented, with
information, at a special event. Tasting opportunities available.
<br>
<br>
Free attendance; registration required.
<br>
<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://bit.ly/2umHuII">http://bit.ly/2umHuII</a>
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