JIN-471 -- North Korea: abductions and the nuclear threat

[jin at mailman.japaninc.com]

J at pan Inc Newsletter
The 'JIN' J at pan Inc Newsletter
A weekly opinion piece on social, economic and political trends
in Japan.
Issue No. 471 Wednesday June 25, 2008, Tokyo

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North Korea: abductions and the nuclear threat

There are good grounds for saying that something of a shift is
taking place in Japan's approach to North Korea. As the US
considers removing the North Korean state from its terrorism
black list, many media reports suggest that the Japanese
government is likely to show an increased flexibility in its
dealings with Pyongyang. For example, according to an AFP
article a few days ago, reporting on the nuclear issue, Foreign
Minister Masahiko Komura has hinted that Japan may not be 'as
thorough as previously hoped' in terms of the declaration in
requires from the North on the abandonment of its nuclear
weapons program.

On top of this, Japan has also eased some of its economic
sanctions on the North, seemingly as a response to Kim Jong-Il's
agreement to re-open investigations into the abduction of
Japanese citizens in the 1970s and 1980s – an issue that is
constantly in the press and on TV and a focus for anti-North
Korean sentiment. Mr Fukuda commented earlier this month that,
'Our hope is to have a normal relationship with the DPRK,' a
further sign that there is something of a thaw in bilateral
relations.

A closer look at the realities of the situation reveals that any
softening of stance on the Japanese side is most likely a result
of the geopolitical environment that, since the end of the war,
has dictated that Japanese foreign policy generally echoes that
of the US. In Japan, popular opinion and a large contingent of
the political establishment remain committed to a tough line on
Pyongyang. Fukuda will need to tread carefully.

In relation to US policy, the recent actions, perceived as
showing a softer approach, can only be understood in the context
of the US' drive to reach a settlement. Condoleeza Rice will be
in Japan from tomorrow for the G8 summit and Japan's political
leaders realize that when it comes to North Korean policy they
must either follow the US lead or risk isolation from the
negotiating process altogether.

Already, there have been some notable voices of concern, from
noisy nationalists on the street to the deputy political editor
of the Yomiuri Shimbun. In an opinion piece published last week
the latter warned: 'While it is crucial to join forces with the
United States, China, South Korea and Russia to resolve the
North Korean nuclear issue, the government should not allow
Pyongyang to take what it wants and run without reciprocation.'
Additionally, websites such as 'Pride of Japan,' a right wing
blog (www.prideofjapan.jp/), have already started to attack
Prime Minister Fukuda for his "betrayal of the people."

Further evidence of the deep-seated feeling against the North
can be seen in the recent decision to allow Koji Kawae, a former
banker who attempted to swindle the Chongryon (association of
Korean residents in Japan) out of its Tokyo property, to get off
with a suspended sentence. This scandal involved some very high
level members of the establishment including Shigetake Ogata,
former head of the Public Security Intelligence Agency.

The US is aware of this feeling and Condoleeza Rice is careful
to show it making broad statements on the abduction issue as,
'it's not going away for Japan; it's not going away for the
United States and we're going to continue to press North Korea
to make certain that this issue is dealt with.' Such statements
may go some way in appeasing the public but many will be ready
to protest loudly if they don't see action to back up these
remarks. Contrarily, a realist might argue that resolving the
abduction issue and denuclearization of the Korean peninsula
removes the rationale for an expanded military role for Japan's
Self-Defense Forces. Indeed, there may well be those on the far
right of the Japanese establishment who in their zeal to push
forward constitutional reform, see the North Korean threat as
necessary in justifying their position. However, surely the
prospect of a non-nuclear North is also greatly in the interests
of national security and thus a settlement on the nuclear issue
would be a relief to most. But is this something Japan is
willing to trade for dropping the abduction issue?

Ultimately, Japanese foreign policy is still very much wed to
decisions made in Washington and therefore it will be
interesting to see what kind of pressure this new US attitude
will put on the US-Japan alliance. Crucially, this pressure may
finally test the ability of the abduction issue to influence
Japan's international relations. This was anticipated in a US
Congressional Research Service report earlier in the year that
forecasted, 'If the Japanese public views Washington as
abandoning the abductees, Japanese leaders may have difficulty
convincing their public to continue to support the United States
on a range of strategic interests, including the hosting and
realignment of US military bases in Japan.' Even though most
political leaders and Japanese citizens would most likely be
very happy to see the end of a nuclear North Korea (except
perhaps the ultra-militant minority) old sentiments, stirred up
by media that trades on criticizing the government, mean that
this domestic issue must be factored into policy. Hopefully,
when it comes down to it, denuclearization will be made the top
priority.

Peter Harris
Editor-in-Chief

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